welshbairn Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Quite a good summary of the early days in London, produced in April. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=CasesByAgeI haven't read up on their methodology and can't comment on how sound it is, but adjusting for missing data and accounting for day of the week trends are both completely normal practice for statistical modelling. If you don't have data for a particular date or group of people then the only thing you can really do is estimate it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, craigkillie said: I haven't read up on their methodology and can't comment on how sound it is, but adjusting for missing data and accounting for day of the week trends are both completely normal practice for statistical modelling. If you don't have data for a particular date or group of people then the only thing you can really do is estimate it. I thought it looked like they were doing it because the numbers were too low to make meaningful predictions. I haven't a clue about this stuff though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 3 hours ago, williemillersmoustache said: I think what you are imagining is a world where the Sottish Government could have reasonably locked down before the UK government, where in fact closing the schools half an hour earlier than the tories was described as a "borderline coup d'etat." I'm sure this is a convenient fiction for you to indulge in but a fiction is what it is. Few places have had a worse outcome than the UK in Europe but do feel free to sing Rule Britannia over the fact we didn't do quite as badly as Slovakia or the far right populist lunatic led Hungary with all the multiple advantages that we have. Brings a tear to the eye that. GSTQ I note you aren't too interested in the far better outcomes in Asia where stricter measures have been in place as they don't really fit into your foaming narrative about "the catastrophe of lockdowns." And in case I haven't made myself clear please do enjoy this further Colin Montgomerie head which will hopefully adequately elucidate the absolute contempt I hold you and your puddledrinking opinions in. The only 'fiction' is the risible revisionist nonsense you are indulging in. Could you please provide me with what surely must be easy to source evidence of the Scottish Government crying and screeching for 'lockdown' at any point through February and March 2020? I'll save you the bother: you can't. No, their poster boy was still telling us mass gatherings weren't a problem barely a week before the shutdown. They are every bit as culpable as the UK Government in this saga - again, deal with it. 'Slovakia and the far-right populist lunatic in Hungary' done everything yourself and other like-minded clowns called for. It made little difference to the outcome we find ourselves in 18 months later. This is of course forgetting that the UK is the sick man of Europe and our health service has been chronically underfunded for a decade, so it's not at all surprising we had slightly worse outcomes, but per capita across Europe the picture is broadly similar. Perhaps you think it was possible for Britain to seal off its borders, which it couldn't as we would run out of food and medicine, or completely alter our culture to be that of east Asian countries in a matter of days and weeks? Obviously that is simply more unrealistic fantasy. Or maybe you wanted us to be more like authoritarian China? You also blatantly have no idea of the economic devastation that is now being reckoned with in this part of the world outside of developed nations like South Korea and Japan. People are starting to starve because of it, which simply shows there was never going to be an easy way out of this for anyone. It was always going to be about trade-offs. Simple. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Elixir said: The only 'fiction' is the risible revisionist nonsense you are indulging in. Could you please provide me with what surely must be easy to source evidence of the Scottish Government crying and screeching for 'lockdown' at any point through February and March 2020? I'll save you the bother: you can't. No, their poster boy was still telling us mass gatherings weren't a problem barely a week before the shutdown. They are every bit as culpable as the UK Government in this saga - again, deal with it. 'Slovakia and the far-right populist lunatic in Hungary' done everything yourself and other like-minded clowns called for. It made little difference to the outcome we find ourselves in 18 months later. This is of course forgetting that the UK is the sick man of Europe and our health service has been chronically underfunded for a decade, so it's not at all surprising we had slightly worse outcomes, but per capita across Europe the picture is broadly similar. Perhaps you think it was possible for Britain to seal off its borders, which it couldn't as we would run out of food and medicine, or completely alter our culture to be that of east Asian countries in a matter of days and weeks? Obviously that is simply more unrealistic fantasy. Or maybe you wanted us to be more like authoritarian China? You also blatantly have no idea of the economic devastation that is now being reckoned with in this part of the world outside of developed nations like South Korea and Japan. People are starting to starve because of it, which simply shows there was never going to be an easy way out of this for anyone. It was always going to be about trade-offs. Simple. No floating heads of golfers? Ooft, you are slipping. But what a nice try at a non barking response. 2/10. ETA and just for you. Controlling our borders would have meant we starved? Edited October 12, 2021 by williemillersmoustache -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, oaksoft said: Get a grip FFS. Nobody is or was "murdering" people. That sort of hysteria isn't helping anyone. Amazing how touchy you get when I correctly point out lives were sacrificed for a trade deal with India. But maybe I should suggest something less hysterical like transporting children for dropping litter? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Fucking hell the Aberdeen lads have really steamed in today. I would say its a bit early but then I too have a beer in my hand so not really in a position to judge. Still, aggressive ranting on a football forum will never not be a touch odd. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said: No floating heads of golfers? Ooft, you are slipping. But what a nice try at a non barking response. 2/10. Good to see you taking the utter shoeing of your baseless nonsense well. 8 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said: Amazing how touchy you get when I correctly point out lives were sacrificed for a trade deal with India. But maybe I should suggest something less hysterical like transporting children for dropping litter? What lives were these, exactly? The Delta variant is everywhere worldwide, regardless of what any nation has done. The most vulnerable were also vaccinated by this point. Are you simply catastrophising death from natural causes? Is nobody allowed to die anymore? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said: ETA and just for you. Controlling our borders would have meant we starved? 'Controlling our borders' - Nigel Farage likes this. Ah wait, I forgot, demonising people coming into our country is only an issue when it's for the 'right reasons', not when you're portraying them as disease-carrying foreigners or people with family elsewhere who need to be kept out. Half-arsed measures would still have seen the virus 'imported', yes. It was already widely seeded before anyone was calling for 'lockdown' in any case. Indeed, it was probably insufferable, virtue signalling clowns like yourself (no doubt a Guardian reader) who were outraged at this point by the mere suggestion of closing borders. It's amazing how the perceived morality of this was turned on its head and forgotten about by the 'progressives'. More revisionist pish into the bin where it belongs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherchance Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, Elixir said: Good to see you taking the utter shoeing of your baseless nonsense well. What lives were these, exactly? The Delta variant is everywhere worldwide, regardless of what any nation has done. The most vulnerable were also vaccinated by this point. Are you simply catastrophising death from natural causes? Is nobody allowed to die anymore? Exactly, we were in a good place vaccination wise and Delta would have got in regardless. The narrative here of “shut the borders” and treating people from abroad as horrible vectors of disease is horrendous, panders to the far right, and is downright inhumane. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Elixir said: 'Controlling our borders' - Nigel Farage likes this. Ah wait, I forgot, demonising people coming into our country is only an issue when it's for the 'right reasons', not when you're portraying them as disease-carrying foreigners or people with family elsewhere who need to be kept out. Half-arsed measures would still have seen the virus 'imported', yes. It was already widely seeded before anyone was calling for 'lockdown' in any case. Indeed, it was probably insufferable, virtue signalling clowns like yourself (no doubt a Guardian reader) who were outraged at this point by the mere suggestion of closing borders. It's amazing how the perceived morality of this was turned on its head and forgotten about by the 'progressives'. More revisionist pish into the bin where it belongs. If there's a plague controlling borders is a perfectly acceptable response, as opposed to shite about wages and not liking having neighbours what talk funny. Nice false equivalence tho. Sure you read that in Spiked or maybe was it on GBnews? 13 minutes ago, Elixir said: What lives were these, exactly? The Delta variant is everywhere worldwide, regardless of what any nation has done. The most vulnerable were also vaccinated by this point. Are you simply catastrophising death from natural causes? Is nobody allowed to die anymore? iS nObOdY aLlOwEd To DiE aNyMoRe? Fucking hell. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 minute ago, oaksoft said: He's right. We don't grow or farm enough food in Scotland to be able to completely close our borders. We'd be in deep shit within a few days. This isn't open for debate so you must be trolling for responses with this. Is the transport of goods and people different? Can't remember, maybe people carry lettuces in their hand luggage? Is that how supply chains work? Amazing. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Is the transport of goods and people different? Can't remember, maybe people carry lettuces in their hand luggage? Is that how supply chains work? Amazing.You need people to transport goods. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Is the transport of goods and people different? Can't remember, maybe people carry lettuces in their hand luggage? Is that how supply chains work? Amazing.Go home m8, ur drunk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said: If there's a plague controlling borders is a perfectly acceptable response, as opposed to shite about wages and not liking having neighbours what talk funny. Nice false equivalence tho. Sure you read that in Spiked or maybe was it on GBnews? iS nObOdY aLlOwEd To DiE aNyMoRe? Fucking hell. It's not the plague, and err, the World Health Organisation quite literally do not endorse border closures as a means of infection control. The fact that myself, a life-long SNP voter is causing a zealot like yourself to lose your mind because I'm not being a lickspittle over their failings is rather sad, tbh. Meanwhile, the reality of February and March 2020, back when people generally still had their marbles: 'iF oNlY wE lOcKeD dOwN sOoNeR!!!11' 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Just now, craigkillie said: 5 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said: Is the transport of goods and people different? Can't remember, maybe people carry lettuces in their hand luggage? Is that how supply chains work? Amazing. You need people to transport goods. Not quite so many of them tho. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said: Is the transport of goods and people different? Can't remember, maybe people carry lettuces in their hand luggage? Is that how supply chains work? Amazing. So you wanted the borders sealed shut without having a fucking clue? Sounds like par for the course. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 That's the New Year firework display in London cancelled again this year citing Covid. Really not getting that large sports stadiums are packed to capacity but the likes of firework displays are deemed too risky. Odd ! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 2 hours ago, scottsdad said: Whatever could she mean by the phrase "action now"? My grandad had his appointment for jag 3 so "action" is taking place now. Bonus is its action that actually works 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: That's the New Year firework display in London cancelled again this year citing Covid. Really not getting that large sports stadiums are packed to capacity but the likes of firework displays are deemed too risky. Odd ! I think a lot of people organising these type of events simply cannot be arsed. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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