Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ICTChris]

1 hour ago, williemillersmoustache said:

I think what you are imagining is a world where the Sottish Government could have reasonably locked down before the UK government, where in fact closing the schools half an hour earlier than the tories was described as a "borderline coup d'etat."

I'm sure this is a convenient fiction for you to indulge in but a fiction is what it is.

 

Who described closing schools earlier as a "borderline coup d'etat"?  What does this description have to do with when the SG could close schools?

[ICTChris]

Also, worth remembering that schools in Scotland and England were both shut on the same day, March 20th.  I'm pretty sure that was the same in all four UK nations.

[gav-ffc]

• 1,908 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 19,394 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
  • 10.5% of these were positive
• 27 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive 
• 51 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 935 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,265,755 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination and 3,866,372 have received their second dose

[dirty dingus]

10 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

Surprised it's that many against facemasks. I thought that the whole of Scotland were right behind Nicola.

polls on twitter are useless all it takes is for word to get round various accounts and their followers and bang you have crazy lopsided results. Happens all the time with Indy twitter voting on ones put up by Scottish papers or the classic tegan delete this FFS brexit poll on Britain bites back.

[Abdul_Latif]

33 minutes ago, virginton said:

Jason 'Clownshoes' Leitch was all for letting an Old Firm game take place on March 15th 2020, until the SFA of all authorities put a stop to that. But please tell us more about your own fictional timeline in which the SG - informed by 'The Science' as much as their Westminster colleagues - would have imposed a credible early lockdown.

 

If I recall rightly he was also at a pretty large capacity gig in the days leading up to lockdown.

Correction - it was his family that attended. Point still stands. The experts and advisors didn’t have a clue.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Abdul_Latif

[Marshmallo]

37 minutes ago, virginton said:

Jason 'Clownshoes' Leitch was all for letting an Old Firm game take place on March 15th 2020, until the SFA of all authorities put a stop to that. But please tell us more about your own fictional timeline in which the SG - informed by 'The Science' as much as their Westminster colleagues - would have imposed a credible early lockdown.

 

 

8 minutes ago, Abdul_Latif said:

If I recall rightly he was also at a pretty large capacity gig in the days leading up to lockdown.

Correction - it was his family that attended. Point still stands. The experts and advisors didn’t have a clue.

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/tv/piers-morgan-clashes-health-chief-17929594

Piers said: "Why would you send your wife to a concert with 12,000 people? I'm sorry but you're supposed to be in charge of public health, you can see what's happening around the world.

"Why on Earth would you want your wife in the middle of this?"

 

Mr Leitch said: "The science tells me that mass gatherings in our trajectory are not a danger to public health."

[scottsdad]

25 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

Surprised it's that many against facemasks. I thought that the whole of Scotland were right behind Nicola.

Not a single mask in my class this morning. I'm not the mask police and didn't enforce it.

[Todd_is_God]

48 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

Surprised it's that many against facemasks. I thought that the whole of Scotland were right behind Nicola.

String "Facemasks all day are only for those filthy hospitality and retail workers not my kids" vibes about that.

Shocked...

Edited October 12, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[superbigal]

Daily Summary for @oaksoft :   Deaths 27 (0 day before),  ICU cases 51 down 5  (0 new admissions),  In hospital with confirmed Covid  935 up 2  (315 admissions).    

Figures for Jags.  1st Vaccines  7,359 to 4,631  2nd vaccines  2,771 to 1,702

Daily Cases Update: Day 4 on the rise after 28 days of falls, up 1.34% to 316.4. Also infectivity up again to 8.2%. 

Cases certainly back on the rise in the UK in all nations. Another near 40,000 case day. 

Total Cases Scotland 7 days 3rd October  to 9th October  were  17,067 to 17,295 up 1.34%, Positivity was 8.0% now 8.2%.  Cases per 100K were 312.2 now 316.4

Home Nations Daily Cases per 100K update  :  UK Average 354.6 to 363.3 up 2.45%, England  347.8 to 357.2 up 2.70%, Wales 520.4 to 520.8 up 0.08%, Northern Ireland   424.5 to 440.6 up 3.79%

In Europe for travellers (Countries Population over 3 Million) Serbia 504.8 (weekly change -11%), Romania 480.6 (weekly up 23%), Bulgaria 225.7 (Weekly up 16%), Croatia 223.7 (weekly up 3%), Moldova 220.6 (Weekly up 7%), Ukraine 207.6(Week up 39%), Ireland  199.6 (Weekly up 14%), Slovakia 177.8 (weekly up 27%)These are the only countries over 150 cases per 100K.   The Baltic states Lithuania 571, Latvia 547 & Estonia 486 with smaller populations are in a bad way 

At the other end for holiday makers  Spain 25.8,  Italy 30.1, Portugal 42.6, France 45.0, Cyprus 75.4, Greece 149.8, Turkey 243.3

Scotland  peaks in wave 4 at 817.1 for 1st Sep to 7th Sep, (UK was 392.1), Cases that day were 44,663 and positivity 12.5%

Scotland peaks in Wave 3 at 425.1 for 27th June to 3rd July, (UK was 229.9) . Cases that day were 23,222 and positivity 10.8%

Scotland  peaked in wave 2 at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan, (UK was 642.1)    Cases that day were 16,496 and test positivity rate was 11.9%  

Council progress in last 24 Hours as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

Stirling   460.2 490.0  up a huge 20% in 2 days.

West Lothian  454.2 to 466.8

Dundee City  446.8 to 447.5 

Aberdeenshire   401.9 to 404.6  

Fife   383.0 to 401.5

East Ayrshire    404.6 to 400.5

Falkirk  399.2 to 388.0

North Lanarkshire   374.0 to 371.1  

East Renfrewshire  356.0 to 366.4 

Moray  374.0 to 351.1  

South Lanarkshire  322.6 to 328.8  

North Ayrshire   326.3 to 328.5

Scottish  Borders  315.9 to 327.1

BELOW AVERAGE 

Dumfries & Galloway   304.4 to 306.8

West Dunbartonshire    306.8 to 306.8

East Dunbartonshire     313.6 to 304.4

Renfrewshire   292.1 to 299.3  

Angus    279.7 to 295.3

Perth & Kinross    274.5 to 291.6

Aberdeen City   273.7 to 272.4

Glasgow City 274.1 to 266.7

Clackmannanshire  253.5 to 263.2

Inverclyde   258.2 to 254.3

Midlothian 249.1 to 248.0

East Lothian   221.5 to 244.7

South Ayrshire    242.6 to 241.7

Argyll & Bute     232.9 to 235.3

City Of Edinburgh  217.8 to 228.6

Highlands   198.8 to 206.4

Western Isles    124.5 to 143.4

Shetland Islands    135.5 to 113.7

Orkney Islands    71.4 to 71.4

Edited October 12, 2021 by superbigal

[doulikefish]

1 hour ago, Michael W said:

Maybe their advice shouldn't have been totally shit, then. 

They belong under the bus with the politicians. It's not enough to just throw your hands in the air and say "we just don't know" or "we did everything we could". It's not unreasonable to expect that medical professionals know far more about these sorts of thing than the likes of Johnson, Raab and Hancock. They weren't screaming at them for weeks to lockdown or introduce restrictions - if they were and were ignored then they'd be absolved of blame. But that wasn't what happened. 

The advice they gave was badly wrong, the decisions based on that advice were in turn badly wrong and, eventually, also too late. 

Saying that, the blame lies squarely with the government for subsequent bunglings. "The advice was shit" is a time-limited mitigation and only part of the story. 

 

That's the thing what advice did the scientists give? 

Let them tells us what was said behind closed doors there must be records of the meetings?

We seem to be getting only one side of the story just now 

A few knighthoods etc to stfu will surely be incoming for the science types 

Edited October 12, 2021 by doulikefish

[Suspect Device]

23 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Not a single mask in my class this morning. I'm not the mask police and didn't enforce it.

 

Is that what all uni staff are told to say? That's word for word what my wife says to her students. 

She reckons about 1/3 of the students are wearing them.

[scottsdad]

1 minute ago, Suspect Device said:

 

Is that what all uni staff are told to say? That's word for word what my wife says to her students. 

She reckons about 1/3 of the students are wearing them.

It is a saying that someone once said in a meeting and stuck. 

It varies from class to class for me. My big Monday class, a bit over half wear them. Nobody on the Tuesday class, and everybody in the Wednesday class. 

Spoiler

Surely some kudos here for avoiding obvious jokes about how your wife and I say the same things...

 

[Abdul_Latif]

Am I not right in thinking the UK’s original intention was to do a Sweden type herd immunity effort, but the public went fucking nuts at the suggestion?

Essentially their hand was forced by the media / public to have a lockdown, later than if that course of action was their first choice?

Edited October 12, 2021 by Abdul_Latif

[scottsdad]

 

Whatever could she mean by the phrase "action now"?

[Left Back]

5 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

 

Whatever could she mean by the phrase "action now"?

What does "this way of processing the data" mean?

Travelling Tabby breaks down case rates in England by age and doesn't show a significant rise in the last 10 days or so.

[Ron Aldo]

What does "this way of processing the data" mean?
Travelling Tabby breaks down case rates in England by age and doesn't show a significant rise in the last 10 days or so.

Wouldn't be like Deepti to talk utter shite, would it?

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, Left Back said:

What does "this way of processing the data" mean?

Travelling Tabby breaks down case rates in England by age and doesn't show a significant rise in the last 10 days or so.

 

I'm the opposite of an expert but it sounds a bit dodgy to me..

Quote

 The numbers in each age band are adjusted/corrected for their incompleteness, then corrected for day-of-week biases, in both cases, as far as possible, in a non-laggy way.

http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=CasesByAge

[Left Back]

4 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I'm the opposite of an expert but it sounds a bit dodgy to me..

http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=CasesByAge

I read that and was still none the wiser.  Possibly adjusted/corrected = made up rather than you know, the actual data.

[Donathan]

7 minutes ago, Abdul_Latif said:

Am I not right in thinking the UK’s original intention was to do a Sweden type herd immunity effort, but the public went fucking nuts at the suggestion?

Essentially their hand was forced by the media / public to have a lockdown, later than if that course of action was their first choice?

There have been some pretty good documentaries on the BBC about this but the basic jist of it was the following:

 

- Once the first few hundred cases of a flu* pandemic had arrived in the UK, it would be impossible to stop it spreading through the population until 60%-80% had been infected and herd immunity was reached.

 

- Herd immunity was not the ultimate goal per se, but an inevitable consequence given that the pandemic could not be stopped.

 

- If the initial efforts to contain the first few hundred cases failed, the only was to stop the NHS being overwhelmed would be to delay the spread and flatten the curve, allowing the virus to pass through the population slowly enough to avoid NHS capacity being breached.

 

- Mitigation measures such as asking the elderly and vulnerable to stay at home would be in place, but there would be no social distancing advice for the general population and a lockdown was not even considered because the public wouldn’t stand for it.

 

Then Neil Ferguson changed everything.

 

Hang on, that doesn’t quite convey the impact that Ferguson had. Let me try again.

 

THEN NEIL FERGUSON CHANGED EVERYTHING.

 

Better.

 

Ferguson’s paper showed that an unmitigated pandemic (never going to happen, but I digress) would lead to 500,000 deaths and hospital capacity breached dozens of times over. 
 

More importantly though, the mitigation strategy the government had been preparing for would also be inadequate. Hospital capacity would be breached 8-10 times over and we’d be looking at 250,000 deaths. 
 

That left the only remaining option being to suppress the virus by implementing social distancing for the entire population. This would hopefully keep the NHS demand within capacity and reduce deaths below 20,000 but the big kicker being no obvious exit strategy. You could hold out for a vaccine, but that was thought to be 18 months away plus a further year to rollout meaning we could be locked down until late 2022. You could go for zero and try to eliminate it, but that was not believed possible. The big disadvantage of this move is that it didn’t have the same natural end point of the mitigated herd immunity strategy, but the UK government panicked in the face of 250k deaths and overwhelmed hospitals and decided on the weekend of 14-15 March to try and suppress the virus.

 

They initially did this without resorting to draconianism. People were advised to work from home and avoid social gatherings, they were also advised to avoid visiting hospitality venues and mass gatherings, but only the latter was actually prohibited. Schools remained open initially but the government admitted this wouldn’t be the case for long, but they felt we were 12 weeks from the peak and didn’t want to close schools for months on end.

 

The public did not comply with this advice as much as hoped, with packed out pubs during the week of the 16th among the government ordered them to close on the Friday. Unfortunately for the government, people just moved their gatherings indoors over Mother’s Day weekend.

 

This meant that by Monday 23rd March, was significant parts of the public still not observing social distancing guidelines, the government decided to impose the first national lockdown.

 

By this point it was too late to get down to 20,000 deaths and we ended up with around double that in the first wave.

 

We ended up getting very lucky that the vaccine was available in less than half the time that was expected. Had this not happened we’d be left with an almost impossible choice between hundreds of thousands more deaths or a very long and draconian lockdown to eliminate the virus. 

[Michael W]

32 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

That's the thing what advice did the scientists give? 

Let them tells us what was said behind closed doors there must be records of the meetings?

We seem to be getting only one side of the story just now 

A few knighthoods etc to stfu will surely be incoming for the science types 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58885665

Seems the arse-covering has started. Letters to the Queen being prepared.