Bairnardo Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Does anyone know roughly how the timeframe of rise, plateau and beginning to drop for this wave coincides with the non vaccine waves, particularly the first where we went no measures to full measures?My question is, can we now begin to create a better picture of how effective locking down actually was? I know theres a level of herd immunity at play now which may account for the way in which this wave peaked and dropped off so I guess that makes analysis hard, but I dont doubt there absolutely are people who want more measures, up to and including lockdown. I would be expecting a pretty accurate picture to be availavle of how it would compare in todays population again the recently tested "do nothing" baseline 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: Does anyone know roughly how the timeframe of rise, plateau and beginning to drop for this wave coincides with the non vaccine waves, particularly the first where we went no measures to full measures? My question is, can we now begin to create a better picture of how effective locking down actually was? I know theres a level of herd immunity at play now which may account for the way in which this wave peaked and dropped off so I guess that makes analysis hard, but I dont doubt there absolutely are people who want more measures, up to and including lockdown. I would be expecting a pretty accurate picture to be availavle of how it would compare in todays population again the recently tested "do nothing" baseline about 3 quarters of the way down there's a graph titled cases, hospitalisations and deaths comparison trend. https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alta-pete Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said: Nonetheless the point stands. The automatic assumption that everything the UK government decides on covid matters is automatically correct, and that any differing view is 'political' is staggeringly simplistic. Whatever WM have got right or wrong it is a long list that could be argued about ad infinitum. What’s has consistently ripped my knitting has been SG’s determination to do just about everything differently just for different’s sake. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: Does anyone know roughly how the timeframe of rise, plateau and beginning to drop for this wave coincides with the non vaccine waves, particularly the first where we went no measures to full measures? My question is, can we now begin to create a better picture of how effective locking down actually was? I know theres a level of herd immunity at play now which may account for the way in which this wave peaked and dropped off so I guess that makes analysis hard, but I dont doubt there absolutely are people who want more measures, up to and including lockdown. I would be expecting a pretty accurate picture to be availavle of how it would compare in todays population again the recently tested "do nothing" baseline 17 minutes ago, Left Back said: about 3 quarters of the way down there's a graph titled cases, hospitalisations and deaths comparison trend. https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/ It's difficult to argue from this that lockdowns did much at all, though you can't say definitively that they didn't either. However, what we can say, with almost certainty, id that the level of immunity now is at least as effective in stopping and reversing the spread as lockdowns ever were, and therefore lockdowns can be fired into the bin. Edited September 17, 2021 by Todd_is_God 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suspect Device Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 (edited) Am I being dumb here? 9.9% of 60,077 tests would be 5,947. 5,529 is 9.2%. It looked wrong because obviously 10% of 60k would be 6k. Edit: Maybe just something to do with the 'technical issues' Edited September 17, 2021 by Suspect Device 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugster Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Suspect Device said: Am I being dumb here? 9.9% of 60,077 tests would be 5,947. 5,529 is 9.2%. It looked wrong because obviously 10% of 60k would be 6k. The percentage is total positive cases. The figure is new positives, ie they count repeat positives in percentage but not the daily figure announced. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottsdad Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Suspect Device said: Am I being dumb here? 9.9% of 60,077 tests would be 5,947. 5,529 is 9.2%. It looked wrong because obviously 10% of 60k would be 6k. Not the first time this has come up, either. I remember saying the same a few months ago. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Suspect Device said: Am I being dumb here? 9.9% of 60,077 tests would be 5,947. 5,529 is 9.2%. It looked wrong because obviously 10% of 60k would be 6k. It also claims to be 48 hours worth of cases, yet lists 5,529 in the last 24 hours, and 5,885 in the last 48 hours. 356 cases from the previous day simply cannot be correct. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suspect Device Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 No matter, the slope is downward which is a good thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Bully Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 31 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: Does anyone know roughly how the timeframe of rise, plateau and beginning to drop for this wave coincides with the non vaccine waves, particularly the first where we went no measures to full measures? My question is, can we now begin to create a better picture of how effective locking down actually was? I know theres a level of herd immunity at play now which may account for the way in which this wave peaked and dropped off so I guess that makes analysis hard, but I dont doubt there absolutely are people who want more measures, up to and including lockdown. I would be expecting a pretty accurate picture to be availavle of how it would compare in todays population again the recently tested "do nothing" baseline It’s a really good question - looking at the TT chart, the peak in cases was far smaller in January (under lockdown) than it is now (under pretty much no restrictions). It’s about a third. As such, if we hadn’t had a lock down then and the peak was as high as this wave, I would have expected hospitalisations and deaths to have been about 3 times higher 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Suspect Device said: No matter, the slope is downward which is a good thing. Aye. Not with school kids, though. Who are now making up around 40% of cases. Thumping dub for the vaccines. Massive L for masks. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, Wee Bully said: It’s a really good question - looking at the TT chart, the peak in cases was far smaller in January (under lockdown) than it is now (under pretty much no restrictions). It’s about a third. As such, if we hadn’t had a lock down then and the peak was as high as this wave, I would have expected hospitalisations and deaths to have been about 3 times higher That low peak in cases surely down to the non availablility of testing though? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottsdad Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Aye. Not with school kids, though. Who are now making up around 40% of cases. Thumping dub for the vaccines. Massive L for masks. It was always going to be the case. College and uni students next, though hopefully the vaccines in these age groups will help dampen it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: That low peak in cases surely down to the non availablility of testing though? Not in January. Mass testing was going on. The peak being lower is more likely because January was before the Delta variant became prevalent in the UK. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, scottsdad said: It was always going to be the case. College and uni students next, though hopefully the vaccines in these age groups will help dampen it. Absolutely, school kids have been largely shielded from exposure throughout. It's not a problem, of course, but it does give a good indication of how little use masks are. I'm not sure we will see a bounce from unis going back tbh - that demographic have already had high exposure etc. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Left Back said: Not in January. Mass testing was going on. The peak being lower is more likely because January was before the Delta variant became prevalent in the UK. Not at the level of 1% of the population per day it wasn't. It averaged around 20k per day, with a similar %age positive. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, scottsdad said: It was always going to be the case. College and uni students next, though hopefully the vaccines in these age groups will help dampen it. Colleges have been running since the schools went back; universities are the only sector left that could change the trend. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Home Nations Daily Cases per 100K update : UK Average 347.9 to 337.0 down 3.13%, England 297.2 to 287.9 down 3.13%, Wales 502.2 to 495.2 down 1.39%, Northern Ireland 567.7 to 547.1 down 3.63% Deaths UK 178 up 20, Scotland 30 up 4, Wales 8 up 4, NI 10 up 5, England 130 up 7. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, Left Back said: Not in January. Mass testing was going on. The peak being lower is more likely because January was before the Delta variant became prevalent in the UK. Im more meaning the start, I though Wee Bully was referring to the start too. Thats the most interesting as it gives a tineline for impact on transmission of going from no restrictions, to the maximum overnight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 A lovely big slag of a drop in new cases in the Highlands. Utterly splendid. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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