Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[101]

I see Virgin Atlantic CEO is predicting 20% decrease in business travel and he isn't confident that business class travel will ever recover to pre pandemic levels. Good news for climate bad news for the industry.

[scottsdad]

There are three main things slowing/preventing an exit from lockdown.

First, as I have said before, the public health people who are now enjoying their moment in the sun. People worldwide are hanging on every utterance and tweet. On one level they don't want this to stop any time soon.

Second, politicians are terrified. Think back to October/November. Boris Johnson's poll ratings were in the toilet because Labour were effective in their arguments that the UK government had been too slow into lockdown, too fast out of it and had "ignored the science". The vaccination programme has pulled Johnson back up big time, but he and other politicians saw how that argument was corrosive to poll numbers. So in future, we'll see politicians agreeing with the public health folk at the expense of all others, for fear of losing support. 

Third, sensitivity. In a normal year with a full vaccination programme we lose between 7000 and 20000 people in the UK to seasonal flu. Covid is more infectious and has a slightly higher mortality; so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that come the winter of 2021/22 we might see, say, 30-40,000 deaths. Normally we'd live with it, except we've become so accustomed now to having leaders stand on podiums announcing the "sad deaths" or a handful of people (sometimes one or two, in the summer months) that a number like 30,000 deaths will have many folk clutching at their pearls and demanding lockdowns. Also, remember that those likely to die from flu are essentially the same cohort as those likely to die of covid. And so the total covid+flu deaths won't be as high as one might imagine. 

This last point is where we need brave politicians to decide what is acceptable and what is not. I fear we'll be in this for the winter again. If we have a Christmas night out, I'll be amazed.

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, 101 said:

I see Virgin Atlantic CEO is predicting 20% decrease in business travel and he isn't confident that business class travel will ever recover to pre pandemic levels. Good news for climate bad news for the industry.

And customers. Business / First Class fares heavily subsidise economy fares.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

And customers. Business / First Class fares heavily subsidise economy fares.

Theres a great youtube channel called wendover which created a video on airline seat economics, its worth a watch. You’ll see a pivot on carriers like virgin to go to a mostly tourism market imo, see virgin holidays making most of new routes and tbh with long haul destinations you get more people willing to pay business class rates for tourism flights which might soften the impact.

[Ron Aldo]

There are three main things slowing/preventing an exit from lockdown.
First, as I have said before, the public health people who are now enjoying their moment in the sun. People worldwide are hanging on every utterance and tweet. On one level they don't want this to stop any time soon.
Second, politicians are terrified. Think back to October/November. Boris Johnson's poll ratings were in the toilet because Labour were effective in their arguments that the UK government had been too slow into lockdown, too fast out of it and had "ignored the science". The vaccination programme has pulled Johnson back up big time, but he and other politicians saw how that argument was corrosive to poll numbers. So in future, we'll see politicians agreeing with the public health folk at the expense of all others, for fear of losing support. 
Third, sensitivity. In a normal year with a full vaccination programme we lose between 7000 and 20000 people in the UK to seasonal flu. Covid is more infectious and has a slightly higher mortality; so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that come the winter of 2021/22 we might see, say, 30-40,000 deaths. Normally we'd live with it, except we've become so accustomed now to having leaders stand on podiums announcing the "sad deaths" or a handful of people (sometimes one or two, in the summer months) that a number like 30,000 deaths will have many folk clutching at their pearls and demanding lockdowns. Also, remember that those likely to die from flu are essentially the same cohort as those likely to die of covid. And so the total covid+flu deaths won't be as high as one might imagine. 
This last point is where we need brave politicians to decide what is acceptable and what is not. I fear we'll be in this for the winter again. If we have a Christmas night out, I'll be amazed.

Can't really disagree with any of this.

As you say, my biggest worry at the moment is we get to winter and the government shites themselves given the inevitable rise in cases / deaths which will come with seasonality. I'm due to get married in December (having already moved it from January) and will be (pleasantly) surprised if that goes ahead at anything resembling normality.

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Theres a great youtube channel called wendover which created a video on airline seat economics, its worth a watch. You’ll see a pivot on carriers like virgin to go to a mostly tourism market imo, see virgin holidays making most of new routes and tbh with long haul destinations you get more people willing to pay business class rates for tourism flights which might soften the impact.

True. Anytime I go to Mexico, Premium with TUI is a must. For the comfort more than anything.

[NotThePars]

33 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

 

Exactly! Better days lie ahead and oh the return to football will be a glorious glorious celebration (not 20% capacity football that can f**k off). 

Quite right. I've got to find a new team to support down in the Glasgow of the North of England and can't do that from an armchair.

[101]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

And customers. Business / First Class fares heavily subsidise economy fares.

I would imagine we might see some Norwegian air style transatlantic flights with absolutely no frills 

[hk blues]

21 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Theres a great youtube channel called wendover which created a video on airline seat economics, its worth a watch. You’ll see a pivot on carriers like virgin to go to a mostly tourism market imo, see virgin holidays making most of new routes and tbh with long haul destinations you get more people willing to pay business class rates for tourism flights which might soften the impact.

 

13 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

True. Anytime I go to Mexico, Premium with TUI is a must. For the comfort more than anything.

Premium Economy is only about 65% of Business Class though, isn't it?  It won't compensate that much for the loss of business class and 1st class.

[accies1874]

45 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

 

Exactly! Better days lie ahead and oh the return to football will be a glorious glorious celebration (not 20% capacity football that can f**k off). 

Glorious celebration for 5 minutes before everyone gets raging at their team's ineptitude. 

[Gaz]

The local car boot sale posted on Facebook this morning and was immediately inundated with replies from a OFTW who had taken pictures and video of how busy it was. Not quite grasping the irony that he'd went along as well. Complaining about how it was virus central.

As I've said on this thread before, you can understand this fear and terror taking place a year ago. Not now.

[TheScarf]

4 minutes ago, Gaz said:

The local car boot sale posted on Facebook this morning and was immediately inundated with replies from a OFTW who had taken pictures and video of how busy it was. Not quite grasping the irony that he'd went along as well. Complaining about how it was virus central.

As I've said on this thread before, you can understand this fear and terror taking place a year ago. Not now.

Are you not something like 40 times less likely to be infected outdoors than indoors? Hence why there should be fans in stadiums etc.

[Gaz]

1 minute ago, TheScarf said:

Are you not something like 40 times less likely to be infected outdoors than indoors? Hence why there should be fans in stadiums etc.

Something like that. It's absolutely nuts. We went to Calley Park with the weans yesterday and it was mobbed. Glorious to see.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

9 minutes ago, Gaz said:

The local car boot sale posted on Facebook this morning and was immediately inundated with replies from a OFTW who had taken pictures and video of how busy it was. Not quite grasping the irony that he'd went along as well. Complaining about how it was virus central.

As I've said on this thread before, you can understand this fear and terror taking place a year ago. Not now.

people have always been fuckin cranks man, remeber there used to be ( maybe still is) a c**t who went round taking pictures of badly parked cars and posting them on a dedicated facebook page, absolute 40 year old virgin behavior, nothing to do with fear of the virus, just another busy body finding an excuse to act all holier than thou

[Lyle Lanley]

Hibs season ticket's for next season say they will be a ballot for any European games with limited attendance. 

So don't think we will see full crowds back until later on in the year or further ahead. 

Edited April 15, 2021 by Lyle Lanley

[EH75]

44 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

Can't really disagree with any of this.

As you say, my biggest worry at the moment is we get to winter and the government shites themselves given the inevitable rise in cases / deaths which will come with seasonality. I'm due to get married in December (having already moved it from January) and will be (pleasantly) surprised if that goes ahead at anything resembling normality.

Whilst there will undoubtedly be absolute moon howlers calling for the entire country to be shut down again in the winter if there is any sort of jump in cases or rise in deaths generally from either covid, the flu or whatever else, I think the chances of another lockdown or restrictions like we have seen are unlikely once these restrictions have been removed.

People who are calling for these sorts of measures seem to forget that the only reason so many businesses have survived this so far is because of the enormous amount of financial support that has been dished out. As restrictions begin to come to an end, so will the financial support and  they really won't want to have to turn that tap on again. People talk about things like masks and social distancing as if these can be implemented in perpetuity with no costs. The fact is, that many many businesses and large parts of entire industries are not viable when these measures are in place. This never gets mentioned. For example you can't run a pub at half capacity indefinitely and the inconvenience of having to wear a mask will surely result in a reduction of trade for all manner of businesses. Maybe it's just me but having to cover half my face up really reduces my enjoyment of things. It's much more difficult to communicate with people and I just can't get used to it. I know there is a few things I put off doing last summer because I didn't want to do it wearing a mask in the thought that "ach, I'll wait until next summer when things will be back to normal". I guess we'll see about that.

[Elric]

In reply to requests that air travel returns before it is lost to England Sturgeon has replied that International travel has a significant risk  due to the chance of new variants being imported and travel curbs may be the price we pay for more normality at home.  Will someone from MSM please ask what the f**k is her definition of more normality?

 

[craigkillie]

1 hour ago, Lyle Lanley said:

Hibs season ticket's for next season say they will be a ballot for any European games with limited attendance. 

So don't think we will see full crowds back until later on in the year or further ahead. 

If it specifically says European games and not league games, then does that not imply it's for away tickets?

[Todd_is_God]

26 minutes ago, Elric said:

In reply to requests that air travel returns before it is lost to England Sturgeon has replied that International travel has a significant risk  due to the chance of new variants being imported and travel curbs may be the price we pay for more normality at home.  Will someone from MSM please ask what the f**k is her definition of more normality?

What are you expecting her to say? The Level 0 "utopia" is already out there.  That is clearly the SG's vision of "Greater domestic normality" as of today. It's ridiculous, but that's been covered.

The real question should be how they will calculate the risk of a variant that is capable of evading the vaccine to the extent they cannot prevent severe illness or death occurring, and what level of risk must this fall below before they will prevent the destruction of the Scottish Aviation and Tourism industry by lifting international travel restrictions.

Edited April 15, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[tamthebam]

1 hour ago, accies1874 said:

Glorious celebration for 5 minutes before everyone gets raging at their team's ineptitude. 

speak for yourself, Accies boy!