Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Elixir]

16 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

 

Who had Nigeria in the variant sweepstake?

Apparently the vaccines are useless but if you give all your money to a Nigerian Prince then you're spared from death.

 

    

[Michael W]

17 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

 

 

Who had Nigeria in the variant sweepstake?

Apparently the vaccines are useless but if you give all your money to a Nigerian Prince then you're spared from death.

 

 

 

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I assume that because these are minimum capacities that the capacity could be increased if required?

No. Once the proposals are actually finalised, they can only go down. At least that was the original plan anyway.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[Elixir]

Modelling I can get behind. Yet we're still expected to put up with restrictions on our liberties and lives for an unspecified amount of time. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

No. Once the proposals are actually finalised, they can only go down. At least that was the original plan anyway.

UEFA seem to be being quite cagey about all this - especially as it looks like Munich might be in real danger of not being able to host.

The 7 April deadline (now 28 April deadline) was just for a commitment on minimum capacity - one assumes they will have a final date for the actual maximum capacities - have looked but cannot  find anything.

[The Master]

3 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Modelling I can get behind. Yet we're still expected to put up with restrictions on our liberties and lives for an unspecified amount of time. 

Nice Freudian slip in that article.

Quote

Last week, antibody testing by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested that, in the week ending March 14, around 54 per cent of people in England already had antibodies to the virus, and slightly less in the developed nations.

 

[Honest_Man#1]

11 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

No. Once the proposals are actually finalised, they can only go down. At least that was the original plan anyway.

I know that’s what they initially said, but I’d hope they’d backtrack on that and allow hosts to increase capacity if they are able to closer to the time. It would be mental to say to a government in April ‘tell us what you will allow’ and then not budge on that when it’s inevitably in a better position by the time of the tournament.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

8 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Modelling I can get behind. Yet we're still expected to put up with restrictions on our liberties and lives for an unspecified amount of time. 

Aye but to be fair we just dont know! 

[Detournement]

2 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Given the risk of DVT from a flight is higher than a clot from the AZ Vaccine, this is a moot point.

300 million air passengers in 2019. How many DVT deaths linked to flights?

Edited April 7, 2021 by Detournement

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

An interesting article on deaths from dvt of young otherwise healthy people. 
 

https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/17828865.19-years-daughter-emma-died-deep-vein-thrombosis-long-haul-flight-newport-mum-ruth-christoffersen-still-trying-save-air-passengers-lives/

a study in Australia pointing to a death rate of 1 in 2 million or 5 deaths per year in Australia 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC261739/

 

Edited April 7, 2021 by Inanimate Carbon Rod

[Left Back]

15 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Modelling I can get behind. Yet we're still expected to put up with restrictions on our liberties and lives for an unspecified amount of time. 

I can’t read the article for the details as it’s behind a paywall but I’m sceptical about this claim.  I asked earlier today if anyone knew the projection about this earlier today and as no-one responded I did my own maths about it.

I’m not on my computer where I saved the results but I used an R0 of 4.5  (which I think was used in the Imperial model, the Warwick used 4.3) to calculate required amount of protection.  Either of those numbers require more than 73.4% claimed that I can see in the bit of the article I can see (77-78% if I remember).

if you then factor in the 14% from the REACT study that have immunity through infection that drops down from 78%.  You then have to factor in the 19% of people in the country that are under 16 and ineligible for a vaccine and we can’t be anywhere near even 73% of the population having immunity.  It would require well over 90% of over 16’s to be vaccinated.

[Todd_is_God]

18 minutes ago, Detournement said:

300 million air passengers in 2019. How many DVT deaths linked to flights?

Around 300 per year in the UK alone according to this article.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/jan/21/transport.world

Where did your passenger number come from?

[Detournement]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

Around 300 per year in the UK alone according to this article.

https://www.theguardi

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Around 300 per year in the UK alone according to this article.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/jan/21/transport.world

Where did your passenger number come from?

an.com/uk/2001/jan/21/transport.world

Where did your passenger number come from?

Google for the passenger numbers. 

The blood clot number is ridiculous extrapolation.

[Todd_is_God]

15 minutes ago, Left Back said:

I can’t read the article for the details as it’s behind a paywall but I’m sceptical about this claim.  I asked earlier today if anyone knew the projection about this earlier today and as no-one responded I did my own maths about it.

I’m not on my computer where I saved the results but I used an R0 of 4.5  (which I think was used in the Imperial model, the Warwick used 4.3) to calculate required amount of protection.  Either of those numbers require more than 73.4% claimed that I can see in the bit of the article I can see (77-78% if I remember).

if you then factor in the 14% from the REACT study that have immunity through infection that drops down from 78%.  You then have to factor in the 19% of people in the country that are under 16 and ineligible for a vaccine and we can’t be anywhere near even 73% of the population having immunity.  It would require well over 90% of over 16’s to be vaccinated.

The R0 of Covid-19 is lower than 4.5, though.

Latest studies and estimates place the R0 somewhere between 1.4-3.9

https://www.medscape.com/answers/2500117-197541/what-is-the-r-naught-of-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19#qna

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The blood clot number is ridiculous extrapolation.

300 per year, I assume, was not the answer you were hoping for then?

[Left Back]

10 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The R0 of Covid-19 is lower than 4.5, though.

Latest studies and estimates place the R0 somewhere between 1.4-3.9

https://www.medscape.com/answers/2500117-197541/what-is-the-r-naught-of-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19#qna

Another article I can’t see but even if it was slightly below 3.9 to get you to the required immunity of 73.4% quoted in the article the big factor here is the 19% of people that can’t be vaccinated.

14% of that 19% having immunity as claimed by REACT doesn’t alter the fact it would still require over 90% of over 16’s to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

[Glen Sannox]

1 hour ago, Detournement said:

300 million air passengers in 2019. How many DVT deaths linked to flights?

509

Edited April 7, 2021 by Glen Sannox

[Todd_is_God]

 

[ICTChris]

 

[Left Back]

11 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

Can’t deny his logic but is that entire discussion relevant to herd immunity?  I’m not a virologist/epidemiologist or any kind of ologist but from what I’ve read herd immunity is 1-1/R0.  It has nothing to do with R.  Calculating Herd Immunity Threshold seems like very simple maths to me.