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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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6 minutes ago, Elixir said:

I believe this is their 'middle' scenario, rather than their nonsense 'worst case'. For context: 15-19,000 deaths is less than the number of people who died of influence during the winter of 2017/18.

Both teams seem relatively pessimistic on the transmission reduction in their models too. 0-30% across both teams. Haven't initial studies shown transmission reduction in health care workers to be far higher? Hasn't the Israeli data shown the same?

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7 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Yes but being capable of interpreting those articles is another thing altogether and not something that someone without significant prior training could or should realistically expect to be credibly capable of.

Doesn't seem to stop a lot of people though.

Right, so in fact I was entirely correct and the tweet being referred to was indeed complete bollocks.

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2 minutes ago, renton said:

Both teams seem relatively pessimistic on the transmission reduction in their models too. 0-30% across both teams. Haven't initial studies shown transmission reduction in health care workers to be far higher? Hasn't the Israeli data shown the same?

One of the models had a scenario with an estimated improved transmission reduction bring deaths down to 9k.  Whether that was in line with our studies ort the Israeli data who knows.

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If we are vaccinating all the priority groups and there is not pressure on the NHS then there should be no slow down in re-opening and ditching distancing, masks etc, at least domestically, regardless of any slowdown in receiving supply from EU countries.

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12 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Depends if the government think that's an acceptable number that the electorate will swallow.

You'd have to assume most of these deaths would be expected over the winter months so an average of around 150ish per day.  There would also be more people in hospital with coronavirus than those dying so what does that do to the NHS?  You'd hope someone is working all this out.

Yeah I understand it from that point, which makes me take slight issue with the reporting of deaths. the way they have done so with the running totals make it sound like a war or natural disaster, obviously there have been many people who have gone before their time and I'm certainly not belittling any death from this. but it's not like they would all still be here had it not been for covid. the same goes for future waves too, if a vaccinated 87 year old tests pos

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6 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

If we are vaccinating all the priority groups and there is not pressure on the NHS then there should be no slow down in re-opening and ditching distancing, masks etc, at least domestically, regardless of any slowdown in receiving supply from EU countries.

Yep, the whole point of lockdown is to stop the NHS from bursting.  The vaccine will prevent that.

This whole 'we don't know' and 'we need to be cautious' is basically the SG admitting they don't trust the vaccine.  Fucking wild.

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If we are vaccinating all the priority groups and there is not pressure on the NHS then there should be no slow down in re-opening and ditching distancing, masks etc, at least domestically, regardless of any slowdown in receiving supply from EU countries.
With Hancock's "mantra" being "no one is protected until we are all protected" you know exactly where we are heading in the scenario you describe unfortunately.
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1 hour ago, Elixir said:

 

How does The White House coming out and binning them fit in with the whole WEF 'Great Reset'?@Detournement

Considering that the UK government said in January that they weren't introducing them while being months into contracts I'll take it with a pinch of salt. 

My cynical Spidey sense is saying that they will allow individual states and private companies to build a complete cluster f**k of a system which doesn't work then step in saying that the public demand a better system (like BJ saying pubs want it here when they don't). 

Edited by Detournement
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4 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

Yeah I understand it from that point, which makes me take slight issue with the reporting of deaths. the way they have done so with the running totals make it sound like a war or natural disaster, obviously there have been many people who have gone before their time and I'm certainly not belittling any death from this. but it's not like they would all still be here had it not been for covid. the same goes for future waves too, if a vaccinated 87 year old tests pos

Reading that thread in more detail it's simply talking about predicted deaths from an exit wave, i.e. what happens as we start to open everything up.

The main criticism he seems to have about the models is they don't actually account for reduced transmission or seasonality.  Warwick have modelled that separately and the results are in line with James Wards own base model and in summary means no real exit wave if the modelling assumptions are correct. 

That doesn't mean he's saying crank everything up after April as one of the assumptions all the models are using is that the expected controls (i.e. restrictions) on the UKG roadmap are followed as the roadmap states.

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1 hour ago, djchapsticks said:

You must be mistaken, only yesterday Detournement had said that vaccine passports was not solely a UK issue but a worldwide one as the US were pushing forward with them.

New York state have the most advanced passport system other than Israel and RoK. Illinois are just behind them.

 

Edited by Detournement
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50 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Depends if the government think that's an acceptable number that the electorate will swallow.

You'd have to assume most of these deaths would be expected over the winter months so an average of around 150ish per day.  There would also be more people in hospital with coronavirus than those dying so what does that do to the NHS?  You'd hope someone is working all this out.

It's the ballpark figure we never batted an eyelid about before death figures were plastered across the media for over a year straight. Many scientists seem more concerned about the possibility of a bad rebound in influenza in coming winters due to less immunity thanks to social distancing. Also, there are mechanisms which aren't fully understood in which respiratory viruses compete with each other, i.e. it seems unlikely we would be battered with Covid-19 and influenza simultaneously.

14 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Oh no. Poor London landlords.

Landlords can whistle, 700,000 lost taxpayers, however...

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16 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Considering that the UK government said in January that they weren't introducing them while being months into contracts I'll take it with a pinch of salt. 

My cynical Spidey sense is saying that they will allow individual states and private companies to build a complete cluster f**k of a system which doesn't work then step in saying that the public demand a better system (like BJ saying pubs want it here when they don't). 

 

9 minutes ago, Detournement said:

New York state have the most advanced passport system other than Israel and RoK. Illinois are just behind them.

 

It must be wild living in a world where everything that happens is a conspiracy. Class.

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1 minute ago, Elixir said:

Landlords can whistle, 700,000 lost taxpayers, however...

Aye. It's like coronavirus. Objectively a bad thing but the side effect of landlords getting shafted is a nice wee silver lining.

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Guest Bob Mahelp
12 minutes ago, Detournement said:

New York state have the most advanced passport system other than Israel and RoK. Illinois are just behind them.

 

Do you mean 'vaccination numbers', rather than 'passport system' ?

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8 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Yes but being capable of interpreting those articles is another thing altogether and not something that someone without significant prior training could or should realistically expect to be credibly capable of.

Doesn't seem to stop a lot of people though.

Utter nonsense. When a public health pronouncement/model (to take the most recent examples) make claims that are either a) based on incomplete and partial accounts of the impact of their pet policies or b) run contrary to the available real-time data then you can in fact 'interpret' them as being 'utter bollocks'.

Under category a) you can file safely 99.9% of Sridhar's shrieking, and under b) the laughable 'third wave' models. Which let's not forget just last month before the roadmap was unveiled were predicting a larger summer wave of hospitalitisations than in January. That the models are now gradually shifting their own set of goalposts towards the grass pitch from the North Sea in which they belonged a few weeks ago does nothing to suggest that their current forecasts will be accurate either. 

Meanwhile, you do not need prior training in anything other than critical thinking skills (preferably from school but further/higher education usually has to do all the heavy lifting on that front) to observe that restrictions that prevent 7 people from meeting outdoors in Orkney but allow 50 God botherers to congregate in any indoor temple of their choice anywhere in the country represent an irrational failure of public policy. 

Public health officials make statements in the public domain with the arguments and supporting evidence that they wish to use to support their case. When those claims do not stand up to scrutiny, they do not get to hide behind their expertise but rather provide better arguments and more convincing evidence. If they don't like that dynamic then they're in entirely the wrong occupation.

Edited by vikingTON
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