Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Just as well the Tories have a strong track record of saying something then following through on it and not making any U turns though.

Edited February 22, 2021 by Melanius Mullarkey

[G51]

when u hear there's now a roadmap to get permanently out of lockdown

 

 

[FFCinthearea]

40 minutes ago, No_Problemo said:

I would expect us to match the dates for the first three stages. Can accept the last one not being discussed at this stage! 

Nippy will have 5 stages to make it more Scottishy.

[D.A.F.C]

Listened to clownshoes leitch on the way home so that's where I got the dates thing from. He seemed quite distanced from the uk approach and also dismissed the schools evidence as it was essential that they opened. Presenter, ex rugby guy, asked him why they were more important than old folks homes considering 14000 people had died without any support from families. 

Hes got a point, schools less important imo

[Donathan]

55 minutes ago, true_rover said:

1 hour ago, Jamie_Beatson said:

See, they keep saying that. End of May is about 100 days away. About 3m first doses to go in Scotland (and that would represent in excess of a 95% uptake). 30k first doses a day between now and then does it.
I assume that given Scotland and England are broadly in the same place and have broadly the same demographics and vaccine capacity that that pace would apply to England as well.
Entirely dependent on supply and probably a slight increase in capacity to allow for second doses at the same time, but it isn’t unrealistic at all. I rather suspect that BoJo’s plan - to ditch pretty much everything on June 21 - somewhat relies on everyone having had one dose by the end of May.

Not that it isn't possible, but you need to take into account people getting second doses as well, which are starting to creep up a little.

 

56 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

1 hour ago, Donathan said:

You realise that the entire population will have a first dose by the end of May?

Is that the plan now. Didn't realise it had been brought forward that much.

 

Officially the plan is end of July but looking at those leaked supply figures that @Todd_is_God posted and then allowing for second doses to take place 3 months after the first, we should be looking at all adults in the UK to be offered a vaccine by mid-May. Projected increase in the supply (Mainly driven by Oxford/AZ, but also partially by Moderna coming on line) means that we should be aiming for 600k-750k total doses per day UK wide from the start of March (Apart from a dip in mid-March)

 

This means two things:

 

- By the end of March (When second doses will truly kick in) 40 million people in the UK should have been offered a first dose. This represents 75% of all adults (JCVI groups 1-9 is 27 million people, so I estimate that the entire groups 1-9 will be done PLUS half of healthy adults below 50. Roughly I expect all over 35's done by the end of March)

- Supply in April and May will be greater than it was in January and February, meaning that we should still see around 7 million people get their first dose in April and the rest of the country in May.

 

 

Also note that none of this accounts for:

- Novavax and J&J coming on line and increasing the supply further.

- Vaccine refusal. 

[D.A.F.C]

Anyone who refuses the vaccine for reasons other than medical should have to wear a dunce hat and play an accordion at all times.

[Honest_Man#1]

Was there any indication given on specifically what sort of data they’d be looking for to move up steps etc?

I actually feel that as the vaccination programme continues on we will rapidly head towards the only two measures that matter (hospitalisation and death figures) being greatly decreased. Maybe I’m being optimistic but I genuinely think if it was data led rather than dates then the current plan might be overly cautious. That all depends on what the acceptable level of hospitalisations and deaths are deemed to be though.

[Todd_is_God]

It's going to be very interesting to see how far from that NS's plan will be tomorrow.

It's going to be more cautious and drawn out, that's almost certain, but really the real test will come once both start to roll out.

If we reach a situation where BJ is looking at whether / when they can bin SD, whilst NS is humming and hawing about whether or not it's ok to allow people to go out for dinner, then there will clearly be a lot of friction.

[Scosha]

I actually think Boris’ 5 week gaps are quite cautious from him. I dare say by end of March, we’ll know even more about the effectiveness of the vaccines, hospitals will be under much less pressure, and fingers crossed deaths will be a lot lower too. A 10 week gap between being able to meet someone outdoors, to being allowed in a pub seems a bit excessive for me. 

[101]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's going to be very interesting to see how far from that NS's plan will be tomorrow.

It's going to be more cautious and drawn out, that's almost certain, but really the real test will come once both start to roll out.

If we reach a situation where BJ is looking at whether / when they can bin SD, whilst NS is humming and hawing about whether or not it's ok to allow people to go out for dinner, then there will clearly be a lot of friction.

Tbh she could just do what he did and say social distancing will be gone not before 21st June but it would be good to know why it would continue beyond 21st June, what's the data they are using for their decisions that's the important thing and hopefully she dives into that and puts the pressure back on Boris and his Health Sec, who I can't believe is holding on.

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Was there any indication given on specifically what sort of data they’d be looking for to move up steps etc?

I actually feel that as the vaccination programme continues on we will rapidly head towards the only two measures that matter (hospitalisation and death figures) being greatly decreased. Maybe I’m being optimistic but I genuinely think if it was data led rather than dates then the current plan might be overly cautious. That all depends on what the acceptable level of hospitalisations and deaths are deemed to be though.

The 4 tests are:

 

Vaccination Progress

Hospitalisations / Deaths in those vaccinated

Pressure on NHS

The non-arrival of a mutation that undermines the Vaccine

 

I don't expect the top 3 to have clearly defined cut off points, as they didn't last year.

[senorsoupe]

The speed in which the UK is getting people vaccinated really highlights how completely inept our Governments have been on this front.  Canada have only gotten a tiny fraction of our people the vaccine and it's unlikely we will get anywhere near UK levels much before the end of the year.

Our politicians are making Boris Johnson look competent

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

Can't wait to vote in May for a party with diametrically opposing views to my own because you can get a pint two weeks earlier in England.

[Elixir]

1 hour ago, super_carson said:

Tomorrow will be very interesting depending on what NS lays out for Scotland.  She did suggest this afternoon that she had been briefed on Johnson's plans and that ours were broadly similar.  I don't want to get my hopes up, I suspect she'll still push for "zero covid", so I expect it will largely be the same things but on a much more spread out scale.  

What I do think will happen though, on the back of today's news, is that impact of vaccinations will kick in throughout the easing.  As many have said, if Sturgeon is true to her word she should be sticking to the data as a guide and not being influenced by advisers who may be pouting that their advice is being ignored.  If, and that's a big if, she does this then we should be matching England's loosening of restrictions. 

The fact that Johnson has ruled out zero-covid means that we won't be able to achieve it, for exactly the same reason that Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar ruled it out in Ireland.  NS didn't want to forcibly close the border last summer and I doubt she would have anywhere near the same justification to do so this time round, if the vaccines continue to work as they are showing that they are.  Whether Leitch, Sridhar or even Sturgeon like it or not, it's no longer a viable option.

But we still don't know about the potential Southeast Chechnya variant, m8.

1 hour ago, bernardblack said:

It’s unfortunately lose-lose for Nicola tomorrow. 
If she follows the big bumbling posh daft lad who I wouldn’t trust with a pair of scissors....and it doesn’t work out then she wasn’t strict enough.

If she doesn’t match it or ease restrictions quicker then it’s her holding us back. 
A truly unenviable position for her. 

If she would just explicitly rule out the zero Covid pseudoscientific fantasy, it would help her immensely, tbh.

1 hour ago, Boghead ranter said:

JL on Radio Scotland saying zero Covid is unlikely for a long, long, long time.

But then adding that it's still something the world should aim for.

1 hour ago, No_Problemo said:

Get to f**k Patrick! 

 

1 hour ago, Tynierose said:

Cheers Harvie now f**k off.   Another idiot in cloud cuckoo land.

 

It's almost like the Green oddballs are enjoying this as they think it's 'a LeSsOn FrOm NaTuRe'.

[101]

2 minutes ago, senorsoupe said:

The speed in which the UK is getting people vaccinated really highlights how completely inept our Governments have been on this front.  Canada have only gotten a tiny fraction of our people the vaccine and it's unlikely we will get anywhere near UK levels much before the end of the year.

Our politicians are making the NHS and armed forces look competent

FTFY, he doesn't work at the weekend he will have told the NHS and Military logistic bods to put together a plan and he would have signed it regardless how good it was. The man is a complete bomb scare and should never be confused for anything else, he of course has spent the last week making plans for a roundabout under the isle of man.

[Thereisalight..]

59 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Be some delicious melt downs from Helen Lovejoy types if SD is binned on the 17th of May.

Are we all expecting NS to announce practically the same stages but 2 or 3 weeks after England again? Or something wildly different? 

[PWL]

The confidence on this thread placed in Johnson, statistically the worst leader in the western world in terms of deaths, is quite something.  

[madwullie]

8 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The 4 tests are:

 

Vaccination Progress

Hospitalisations / Deaths in those vaccinated

Pressure on NHS

The non-arrival of a mutation that undermines the Vaccine

 

I don't expect the top 3 to have clearly defined cut off points, as they didn't last year.

Yeah I would definitely prefer less vague tests, but I suppose it gives them plenty of wriggle room. Wouldn't be surprised if the SG ones do have more specific figures tbh

[Honest_Man#1]

8 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The 4 tests are:

 

Vaccination Progress

Hospitalisations / Deaths in those vaccinated

Pressure on NHS

The non-arrival of a mutation that undermines the Vaccine

 

I don't expect the top 3 to have clearly defined cut off points, as they didn't last year.

Sorry yes I was meaning they didn’t give any indication of numbers. I would be really interested to know what Boris etc genuinely think is acceptable numbers for hospital admissions/current patients and deaths.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Yeah I would definitely prefer less vague tests, but I suppose it gives them plenty of wriggle room. Wouldn't be surprised if the SG ones do have more specific figures tbh

If she does want to be different then that would be my preference.

Clear measures for opening up.