Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I agree with you about case numbers not mattering too much. As I said earlier though, it would seem NS disagrees on this.

And when I say 'stuck in limbo' I appreciate that, going by last year, they should drop come late spring. But for the next few months I can't see them dropping to such an extent that it would allow the FM to relax restrictions (assuming the easing is to be 'data led')

It's long been preached that any sustained increase in cases will lead to an increase in hospitalisations, and, tbf, this has been true.

We've never had a period where hospitalisations and deaths have dropped whilst cases have remained static before. It should come as little surprise that this has happened as we started protecting the most likely to end up in hospital with vaccines, though.

[Ad Lib]

7 minutes ago, Left Back said:

He isn’t talking about international travel though is he?

The same should also apply to Sainsbury's, football stadiums and GP surgeries. No ID, no compliance with the medical advice on the vaccine? No admittance. For as long as people who aren't vaccinated pose a risk that is greater than those who are not vaccinated, and for as long as vaccinations are in fact available to them, they should not be allowed to take part in society.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Ad Lib

[madwullie]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's long been preached that any sustained increase in cases will lead to an increase in hospitalisations, and, tbf, this has been true.

We've never had a period where hospitalisations and deaths have dropped whilst cases have remained static before. It should come as little surprise that this has happened as we started protecting the most likely to end up in hospital with vaccines, though.

TBF there was a period last summer when cases rose and hospitalisations remained static. I can remember thinking at the time it might be down to increased numbers of young people testing positive. 

For me the trend is more certain that hospitalisations rising leads to deaths. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by madwullie

[Left Back]

1 minute ago, Ad Lib said:

The same should also apply to Sainsbury's, football stadiums and GP surgeries. No ID, no compliance with the medical advice on the vaccine? No admittance. For as long as people who aren't vaccinated pose a risk that is greater than those who are not vaccinated, and for as long as vaccinations are in fact available to them, they should not be allowed to take part in society.

OK mate.  Let the unvaccinated starve.  Did you ever think of running for office?

[No_Problemo]

15 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Case numbers might not matter. But no getting away from Wales flown passed us, Northern Ireland catching us.  Even England might go past us on current trajectory.

The downside of being harsher earlier I guess...

[Steven W]

8 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's long been preached that any sustained increase in cases will lead to an increase in hospitalisations, and, tbf, this has been true.

We've never had a period where hospitalisations and deaths have dropped whilst cases have remained static before. It should come as little surprise that this has happened as we started protecting the most likely to end up in hospital with vaccines, though.

Again, (re-iterating the point here really) I agree with you.

But ultimately it boils down to what Ms Sturgeon thinks. And it would appear that case numbers are quite a big deal (alongside the other numbers) to her.

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, madwullie said:

TBF there was a period last summer when cases rose and hospitalisations remained static. I can remember thinking at the time it might be down to increased numbers of young people testing positive. 

For me the trend is more certain that hospitalisations rising leads to deaths. 

Well no, as it took a good few weeks but it did eventually increase hospitalisations. Quite possibly because, like you say, initially it was younger people and took time to reach the more vulnerable age groups.

Vaccination of the most vulnerable mean that isn't going to happen again now, much to the confusion, i'm sure, of the "wait two weeks" brigade.

[Robin.Hood]

9 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

The same should also apply to Sainsbury's, football stadiums and GP surgeries. No ID, no compliance with the medical advice on the vaccine? No admittance. For as long as people who aren't vaccinated pose a risk that is greater than those who are not vaccinated, and for as long as vaccinations are in fact available to them, they should not be allowed to take part in society.

Happy days. Means I don't need to go to work until I've had it. Result. Hopefully I get the furlough and enjoy some time off 

[Elixir]

2 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

"Experts disappointed by disappearance of Covid-19" headlines everywhere.

FTFY.

44 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I harped on about this a week ago....

Case numbers have platuaued. I imagine most would agree with that. They've done so at a fairly high level (about 850) and despite being 'lockdown', the case numbers are stubbornly high.

I personally think there should come a point where case numbers become irrelevant, but unfortunately NS doesn't agree with that.

I really don't know where we go from here. Case numbers stuck at 850 odds + in a lockdown = stuck in limbo.

I imagine they'll plateau until spring is upon us. Eventually, case numbers should become largely irrelevant.

[Left Back]

Just now, Steven W said:

Again, (re-iterating the point here really) I agree with you.

But ultimately it boils down to what Ms Sturgeon thinks. And it would appear that case numbers are quite a big deal (alongside the other numbers) to her.

They were a big deal when they were the only indicator of what was heading to hospitals.   Now they aren’t and any sensible person should adjust their significance accordingly.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Steven W said:

Again, (re-iterating the point here really) I agree with you.

But ultimately it boils down to what Ms Sturgeon thinks. And it would appear that case numbers are quite a big deal (alongside the other numbers) to her.

I understand that. But the tipping point will come if, after months of almost zero hospitalisations, she is still talking about protecting the NHS.

[ICTChris]

 

[HibsFan]

4 hours ago, Elixir said:

That's all well and good, but we just don't know!!!!!  

[Steven W]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I understand that. But the tipping point will come if, after months of almost zero hospitalisations, she is still talking about protecting the NHS.

"Protect the NHS" is SO lockdown#1 

Feels like that way of thinking has long been left behind in favour of 'no cases / no hospitalisations / no deaths'

 

[Left Back]

3 minutes ago, Steven W said:

"Protect the NHS" is SO lockdown#1 

Feels like that way of thinking has long been left behind in favour of 'no cases / no hospitalisations / no deaths'

 

Starving the unvaccinated will help with that.  They’ll be just as dead but not caused by covid so good for the stats.

[Elixir]

24 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

You don't know that we're going to reach "such a high degree of vaccine coverage in the UK" or how quickly we're going to do it.

International travel as a UK citizen and in almost all developed countries literally requires a state-issued biometric passport not to mention for many people a state-issued visa. The idea that mandating someone has a vaccine before they can travel is a "your papers please dystopian society" is for the birds.

Err, no. Polling is quite clear that anywhere from 80-90% of the population in the UK are willing to take the vaccine, which fits with the 95%+ of over 70s who already have. As projections indicate, the rollout will conclude by late summer. The pandemic phase will likely be more or less at an end by then in the northern hemisphere anyway.

This discussion wasn't about international travel, but in the short to medium term it is a measure that will likely end up happening, but if it does away with the need for quarantine and testing, it will make life easier. Long-term, however, it should not be necessary.

11 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

The same should also apply to Sainsbury's, football stadiums and GP surgeries. No ID, no compliance with the medical advice on the vaccine? No admittance. For as long as people who aren't vaccinated pose a risk that is greater than those who are not vaccinated, and for as long as vaccinations are in fact available to them, they should not be allowed to take part in society.

Which brings us to this. Not every person is able to be vaccinated: pregnant women, those with autoimmune conditions, and so on. What do you propose, we just treat these people like the 'anti-vaxx scum' and cut them out of society? Indeed, why should I or anyone who has been vaccinated have to be subjected to being treated in this way?

Of course, there is a reason why many scientists and indeed the Royal Society just this week highlighted how problematic this idea is. The acute health crisis is not going to last long enough to make it worthwhile in any form.

Out of interest, do you have posters of Tony Blair in your bedroom?

[vikingTON]

44 minutes ago, madwullie said:

OK. Well you should be prepared to be disappointed. 

The UK govt has been pretty gung ho a few times in the past 12 months and totally fucked it - so I can't see them doing anything other than removing restrictions based on what our data shows. The Scottish govt has been more conservative, so there's f**k all chance there. 

Because the fact that the government has made an arse of it before with back of a fag packet claims means that the government making a arse of it again for different reasons balances out and is not in fact the worst of both worlds. 

Quote

Are any other countries currently opening up based on the Israeli data?

Are any other countries issuing a 'road map' to lifting restrictions this very week, but plan to pretend that there's nothing that we can do to forecast this? 

Quote

Last I saw they themselves were only opening museums etc to the public, and everything else will require a vaccine passport - and they were estimating 90% vaccinated needed for herd immunity. And they're months ahead of us in this process.

Yeah because that's practically the same as our experience on Plague Island isn't it,  where coppers are trying to slap fines on people for talking on a park bench or using public transport. 

Simpering nonsense as usual. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by vikingTON

[Left Back]

So if the Israeli data is correct that vaccination stops 89.4% of transmission is it as simple as saying that automatically reduces the R from 3 to 0.3 in a vaccinated population?

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

14 minutes ago, HibsFan said:

That's all well and good, but we just don't know!!!!!  

We sure dont, lets just lockdown forever and think happy Devi thoughts. 

18 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

Cases arent going to fall when we are putting the mass testing out the way we are, it should entirely be based on the strain on the NHS, i mean it wont be, but it should be. Testing everyone in the desperate attempt to find #variants is just their excuse to keep us locked down for the next year. 

[madwullie]

7 minutes ago, virginton said:

Because the fact that the government has made an arse of it before with back of a fag packet claims means that the government making a arse of it again for different reasons balances out and is not in fact the worst of both worlds. 

Are any other countries issuing a 'road map' to lifting restrictions this very week, but plan to pretend that there's nothing that we can do to forecast this? 

Yeah because that's practically the same as our experience on Plague Island isn't it,  where coppers are trying to slap fines on people for talking on a park bench or using public transport. 

Simpering nonsense as usual.