Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Elixir]

3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I don't have the exact quote, but NS saying the vaccines would hopefully help get prevelance down but then not mentioning them at all as part of the solution to the challenge of then keeping them down is also very telling as to how they have no desire to return to normality any time soon.

I still don't see how there can be or will be widespread support for any of this once deaths and hospitalisations return to normal levels post-vaccination.

[South Lanarkshire Jag]

Just now, ICTChris said:

Regarding zero Covid, the time for it was a year ago.  Taiwan, for example, has had fewer cases in the entire pandemic than Scotland had yesterday.  There are huge difficulties with dealing with a seeded respitory virus and trying to eliminate it via the sort of strategy that has worked for countries who have had a level of success with it.  It's too late to do that in Scotland, or the UK.

Regarding the rolling lockdowns, like we se in New Zealand and Australia, I think that works because people there have a degree of confidence that it will be a five day lockdown. People will accept it more because they can have a normal life, generally, apart from that and international travel.  Also people there haven't spent a year confined so it's easier to accept a week long stay at home order.

The mention of Taiwan reminds me that while I was working during Lockdown 1(which feels like a decade ago), I would tune in and watch the live streams of Taiwanese baseball which, I think, was the only live sport available anywhere in the world. It was a four team league and fans started getting in around June time so they were very successful doing it.

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

We already have data suggesting that transmission will be reduced by 50-70% once people are vaccinated.  Beyond a "variant" appearing that completely evades current vaccines then there is no justification for further restrictions in winter, and I very much doubt we'll ever see furlough again after 1st May.

I'm not arguing against anything you are saying btw (I agree with you).

[Ron Aldo]

Sounds very much like an as yet undiscovered Taiwanese variant is just waiting in the shadows.

Keep everything shut.

[TheScarf]

6 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Regarding zero Covid, the time for it was a year ago.  Taiwan, for example, has had fewer cases in the entire pandemic than Scotland had yesterday.  There are huge difficulties with dealing with a seeded respitory virus and trying to eliminate it via the sort of strategy that has worked for countries who have had a level of success with it.  It's too late to do that in Scotland, or the UK.

Regarding the rolling lockdowns, like we se in New Zealand and Australia, I think that works because people there have a degree of confidence that it will be a five day lockdown. People will accept it more because they can have a normal life, generally, apart from international travel.  Also people there haven't spent a year confined so it's easier to accept a week long stay at home order.

THere were about 100 posts in between when I started writing this and when I posted it, apologies if someone has already said this.

Christ, how slow do you type?

[renton]

7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It was based on the hypothesis that the vaccines will stop you getting ill but not actually catching and transmitting it.

If that turns out to be the case, given they will still be using test and protect, we will be running the risk of experts like Sridhar advising the SG to take drastic action to halt the spread of a mild / asymptomatic infection.

I don't think it's particularly helpful for Sturgeon to he speculating on 'next winter' in any context. 

If we are into the stride of identifying the annual variants and vaccinating as per the annual flu drive then there is no case for any future lockdown since we should be pre-empting any virus mutation that might show immune escape characteristics.

On the other hand, if the vaccination drive gets treated as a one off, and there is less attention paid, then it would be probable that any rise in cases might well be serious since it would have to be a big enough rise to be spotted by a test system far less sensitive than the current one (got to assume large chunks of current capacity will be mothballed, right?)... at which point, you are left with the prospect of restrictions to combat a rise then and there, or waiting to see if there is an attendant rise in hospitalisations which would probably mean you were too late in trying to control it anyway.

In any event, it is all pure speculation. It seems likely at this point that the vaccines will work as advertised. It seems likely that there will he subsequent booster shots and rejigged vaccines for identified mutations, and it seems likely that there will be further advances in medicines aimed at keeping any covid cases mild and out of hospital.

It just remains the point that there is a non zero chance of further serious outbreaks with an endemic disease. Sturgeon is certainly placing too much emphasis on possible negative outcomes And her more positive demeanour today might reflect the despairing reaction from her Tuesday briefing.

I do think that we are likely going to have to have some variation of public health control protocols ready to roll out, as the Far Eastern nations did after SARS. I don't think this is the last one of these zoonotic viruses we are going to have to deal with in the West.

[Todd_is_God]

The dentist now arguing with an epidemiologist

[effeffsee_the2nd]

8 minutes ago, super_carson said:

I said this yesterday, but I think there a few possible scenarios at play

1. Furlough will continue as is, and Sturgeon is privy to this and knows she can continue with a protracted release from lockdown. 
2. Furlough will become more sector specific and our restrictions by that point will reflect it (e.g. applicable to hospitality and events but not an option for non-essential retail).  This is the most likely IMO.
3. Furlough is finished or scaled back to the extent that wide-spread restrictions result in thousands of job losses.  I see there being two further scenarios if that happens:
   1. Sturgeon forces Sunak's hand - painting the restrictions with the emotional rhetoric of saving lives could mean that public support for restrictions remains high.  If Sunak doesn't extend furlough, it could push support for Indy up further, so WM are backed into a corner.
   2. Sunak doesn't bite, ends furlough in it's current form and restrictions have to be eased.  If cases go up, WM can be blamed for ending furlough prematurely.  If they don't, long lockdown can be heralded as a success as a triumph for our  harsher and longer period of restrictions. .

I think the context for the end of furlough and the Holyrood elections is hugely significant.

theres a simple fact that we can't keep burning money forever. I think you are right in that politics and the election being  in play for both the SNP and the torys . Since the start of the pandemic with health bein devolved Scotland has been acting like a de-facto independent state.  the snp want to be able to be seen as the ones who care and paint the torys as the ones who will throw you to the wolves in order to save 10 bob . which to be fair is usually true .

i

 

[super_carson]

2 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

theres a simple fact that we can't keep burning money forever. I think you are right in that politics and the election being  in play for both the SNP and the torys . Since the start of the pandemic with health bein devolved Scotland has been acting like a de-facto independent state.  the snp want to be able to be seen as the ones who care and paint the torys as the ones who will throw you to the wolves in order to save 10 bob . which to be fair is usually true .

i

 

Oh aye, the Tory's are a shower of morally reprehensible c***s - of that there can be no doubt.  But the SNP's over-bearing and controlling nature has really come to the fore in the last few weeks given the soundbites.  Ideally the common sense approach would lie somewhere in the middle.  

[MP_MFC]

Yes

Didn't she specifically say that she wants this to be the last lockdown needed.

[Burnieman]

7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The dentist now arguing with an epidemiologist

It's OK, forget yer corridors, we'll fly via England thanks.

[Donathan]

Is there any chance that the furlough plug is pulled but Sturgeon goes ahead with her cautious reopening, essentially turfing thousands to the kerb with no financial support? I’d like to think not but Sturgeon seems to wedded to zero covid at the minute that nothing is off the table.

[renton]

1 minute ago, Donathan said:

Is there any chance that the furlough plug is pulled but Sturgeon goes ahead with her cautious reopening, essentially turfing thousands to the kerb with no financial support? I’d like to think not but Sturgeon seems to wedded to zero covid at the minute that nothing is off the table.

The answer can be found in last Autumn, the Scottish Government funded some tougher restrictions in the West through tier 4 but there was a stated limit to what was achievable without UK furlough.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Is there any chance that the furlough plug is pulled but Sturgeon goes ahead with her cautious reopening, essentially turfing thousands to the kerb with no financial support? I’d like to think not but Sturgeon seems to wedded to zero covid at the minute that nothing is off the table.

Politics is the big bad world and the only thing that matters is staying in power.  So far this has been a peace of pish for sturgeon. the country is roughly 50/50 split on independence or not but the unionist vote is split between 3 party's leaving them to hoover up the rest.  causing mass unemployment is probably the only thing likely to change that. even then they could run with " we would have kept you furlough if we had the power to do so" 

[Jambomo]

4 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Is there any chance that the furlough plug is pulled but Sturgeon goes ahead with her cautious reopening, essentially turfing thousands to the kerb with no financial support? I’d like to think not but Sturgeon seems to wedded to zero covid at the minute that nothing is off the table.

No, there is no chance of that. We saw in winter when we felt things needed to be closed but didn’t because we couldn’t run the furlough scheme - it only changed when the Tories realised we needed to do it as well.

[NotThePars]

Again pish. I assume you are saying defending govt policy is by default a defence of the utterances of Shridar and Leitch. It really isn't.

What I usually see you say is something along the lines “stop listening to them just ignore them
if they bother you so much [emoji23] “ which is fine if I could also just ignore any restrictions that I feel their influence over the government is responsible for

[101]

14 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The dentist now arguing with an epidemiologist

Regardless of what he thinks it's really not a good look to be squabbling in public with a member of the CMO advisory group.

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, MP_MFC said:

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yes

Didn't she specifically say that she wants this to be the last lockdown needed.

Yes. But she also gave an example of what would cause another one to be required.

They aren't conflicting statements.

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, Jambomo said:

No, there is no chance of that. We saw in winter when we felt things needed to be closed but didn’t because we couldn’t run the furlough scheme - it only changed when the Tories realised we needed to do it as well.

It has shown that our form of devolution is not fit for purpose, back to UK rule, devo max(the real one), independence or some sort of federal system are the only options going forward, having to wait for somewhere else to conform to you're desired outcome has been shown to be a nonsense for the last year or so. 

[effeffsee_the2nd]

3 minutes ago, 101 said:

Regardless of what he thinks it's really not a good look to be squabbling in public with a member of the CMO advisory group.

Fucking lockdown doesn't apply to him, he's busier and more lively than he's ever been in his life. no wonder he can't comprehend the serious adverse side effects it has on the country