Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[super_carson]

52 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

1 hour ago, super_carson said:

I find myself agreeing with a Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer...

 
In all seriousness, it's not so much about saying he's 100% right but it's about now listening to a wider-pool of experts.  Lockdowns have a positive effect on virus rates, but a negative effect on just about everything else.  We need to be listening to all the experts to plot a sustainable way forward.  No one, not even Sunak, is suggesting we lift all the restrictions tomorrow but there has to be a rational discussion that will involve compromises and the "grown up discussion" that we, in Scotland, were promised.  
 
 

We are ahead of England in that as it stands now though. We have the knowledge that as long as the drops continue we will get indicative dates come next review on 16 Feb.

I agree that we are  in a better situation than England, and our rates are falling from a lower starting point due to quick decisions from NS & the SG.  While I think it's fairly obvious the SG's initial handling of the pandemic - and seeming transparency from NS - was far better than that of England's, comparisons between the two countries are largely pointless as our governments have fundamentally different ideologies and leaderships.  It's also going to be years before we know which countries got things right - even Australia and New Zealand won't know the full scale of the impact of their policies for some time.  My worries aren't about the handling of the pandemic as much, but about our plans moving forward. 

The language from NS, Leitch and other advisers is still this overly cautious de facto zero-covid and they appear focused on using lockdowns as the only weapon by which to reduce the virus.  We continue to hear the same lines about variants (some hypothetical)  and transmission with regards to the vaccine, despite a lot of evidence now emerging that the vaccines are effective in these regards.  They may require some alterations as variants pop-up, but from my layman's understanding the current vaccines aren't exactly useless and idea of tweaking vaccines periodically isn't anything new or unusual.  

It's this kind of rhetoric, coupled with Leitch's remarks yesterday that concern me that we will, again, be the slowest country to remove restrictions (and we're kidding ourselves if we think last summer was anything close to it).  The messaging is not about vaccinations being the way forward, but is still rather restriction-centric.   We all know the damage this virus can cause, and right now I am supportive of the restrictions while hospitalisations and death rates remain high and I'm sure many of us who appear overly critical of the SG are in agreement they are necessary for now.  

But it doesn't seem to me that in Scotland we are looking at the damage restrictions will cause.  There is the short-term impact on mental health, but the economic damage has major long-term implications for society and, ironically, public health. Last February, there were 19% of households living in poverty and that figure was already rising - what will that figure look like now?  How many more families will resort to foodbanks as jobs are lost and incomes shrink? There is clear a correlation between poverty, poor health, crime, education, quality of life and life expectancy; the economy and public health are symbiotic.  

I get what you're saying, if the rates continue to fall we will potentially know what's happening come the middle of the month and that's all fine and well but it will be very slow, cautious and laden with caveats.  That said, I am not suggesting a full unrestricted return to normality - I don't think anyone really is.  What I am suggesting is that there needs to be a greater and rational discussion involving all areas of society about the impact of lockdown and whether the restrictions are proportionate.  

[Billy Jean King]

Once we hit the end of April with all (or almost all) adults having received the first vaccination, and heading into summer, I don't forsee any steps back.
By the time we hit October and the start of the "winter surge" all adults will have been vaccinated twice.  By then, we need to be back to normal because that is as good as it is going to get.

Surely having to start 2nd doses en masse by about the middle of next month the number of new 1st doses is going to slow massively. That was always the main drawback of doing it as we have and presumably why we are now hearing of trials in mixing the vaccines between the 2 doses.

[Left Back]

27 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

Sounds awesome.   Be good to spend a night in the bar, sitting in the corner, just observing.

Don't do it.  I was in there a couple of summers back and it was dreadful....

 

...There's no air conditioning.

[MONKMAN]

45k vaccinated yesterday

[Billy Jean King]

Over 45k jagged yesterday. Superb effort that

[MP_MFC]

45,085 done yesterday.

Superb.

[super_carson]

Just now, Billy Jean King said:

Over 45k jagged yesterday. Superb effort that

That's brilliant, hopefully we can maintain that!

[gav-ffc]

Superb numbers and I’m sure Ruth Davidson will be fizzing.

[Burnieman]

3 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

46 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

Once we hit the end of April with all (or almost all) adults having received the first vaccination, and heading into summer, I don't forsee any steps back.
By the time we hit October and the start of the "winter surge" all adults will have been vaccinated twice.  By then, we need to be back to normal because that is as good as it is going to get.

Surely having to start 2nd doses en masse by about the middle of next month the number of new 1st doses is going to slow massively. That was always the main drawback of doing it as we have and presumably why we are now hearing of trials in mixing the vaccines between the 2 doses.

If we vaccinate at the rate of 45k per day (inc Sundays), we'll be through all adults by end of April (in Scotland).   Using the 12 week window as a guide, second jags will start around mid-April, so only a few weeks crossover at the end of the first jag process.  Come May, everyone will be in the second jag process which should conclude by around July.

That tallies with reports yesterday that the UK govt internally believes everyone will be done by August, which they won't admit to publicly yet.

[Marshmallo]

Great news. If they can keep that rate up that would be 300k plus a week. 

[craigkillie]

That's still short of 400k a week, so still some way to go, but it's great to see them finally speeding up a bit.

[super_carson]

Hospital numbers also down by 43. 

[Have some faith in Magic]

2 minutes ago, gav-ffc said:

Superb numbers and I’m sure Ruth Davidson will be fizzing.

But but but the Army GSTQ, WATP

 

 

[Burnieman]

Daily numbers not great, back upto over 1,000 although positivity rate below 5%.   Must be targeting areas, and the effects of wanting people without symptoms to get tested.

[Billy Jean King]

If we vaccinate at the rate of 45k per day (inc Sundays), we'll be through all adults by end of April (in Scotland).   Using the 12 week window as a guide, second jags will start around mid-April, so only a few weeks crossover at the end of the first jag process.  Come May, everyone will be in the second jag process which should conclude by around July.
That tallies with reports yesterday that the UK govt internally believes everyone will be done by August, which they won't admit to publicly yet.

Amazing if it works out like that.

[Aladdin]

[Michael W]

2 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

Daily numbers not great, back upto over 1,000 although positivity rate below 5%.   Must be targeting areas, and the effects of wanting people without symptoms to get tested.

Cases always seem to rise towards the end of the week. Seems to coincide with more tests. 

I wouldn't worry too much unless there are several days of increases or there's a notable increase from. The previous week. 

[101]

channel 4 news seem to be on a lone mission to dig into the stats that the UKg are pumping out.

Wtf has it taken so long to basically debunk everything they have said this far.

Counting people offered and only doing types of care homes is no way to get us out this mess. We need to know exactly who has been done and make sure the most at risk are done first that's how we lower hospitalisations and deaths, which is the priority at the moment.

 

[Caledonian1]

5 minutes ago, gav-ffc said:

Superb numbers and I’m sure Ruth Davidson will be fizzing.

Nae just Ruth there are a few on here who won't be posting just as much and will have to look for alternative entertainment this afternoon. 

 

[Burnieman]

2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

7 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

If we vaccinate at the rate of 45k per day (inc Sundays), we'll be through all adults by end of April (in Scotland).   Using the 12 week window as a guide, second jags will start around mid-April, so only a few weeks crossover at the end of the first jag process.  Come May, everyone will be in the second jag process which should conclude by around July.
That tallies with reports yesterday that the UK govt internally believes everyone will be done by August, which they won't admit to publicly yet.

Amazing if it works out like that.

I wrote that before seeing todays numbers, we're now bang on target with the likliehood of 45k a day increasing to 60k by the end of Feb.