Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Elixir]

NO BOTTLES. NO JAGS. FREEMAN OUT.

[The Moonster]

48 minutes ago, madwullie said:

TBF the chat has been pretty grim about this for weeks now - it's largely been written off as fear porn / scaremongering / a tactic to keep us in lockdown longer than required. 

The data so far shows that the sa variant is less responsive to vaccines. Not a huge amount, but enough to require tweaking of the vaccine, which will then have to go through its own trials etc again and isn't an immediate process. 

Obviously it's therefore a concern that further variants may arise that cause greater issues than this, and while the govt has been trying to explain this its been drowned out by people scoffing at hypothetical variants etc. 

In some ways, it's exactly the type adult converstion people have been demanding, but because it's not what they want to hear, it's discounted. 

If it's not an immediate process, how long does it take?

"Tweaking of the vaccine" is said here with negative connotations, but anything I've read so far about this has been overwhelming positive in that it's truly amazing that we're able to track these mutations and alter our treatments as it happens, something that wasn't possible in the past. Of course it's not ideal that the vaccine we already have isn't as effective but we now have much better ways of dealing with this shit. 

People are absolutely right to scoff at fucking idiots like Matt Hancock saying "the variant that scares me is the one that's not been discovered yet". That is not helpful, nor is it part of an informed discussion, it's absolutely "be afraid of the unknown" bullshit. 

[South Lanarkshire Jag]

22 minutes ago, mizfit said:

I see it going like this -

End of Feb - non essential businesses reopening

End of March - Reopening of all, unless furlough becomes industry specific and they end up pushing hospitality to end of April.

No football attendances this season.

Furlough was extended until the end of April 2021 in December - https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-extends-furlough-and-loan-schemes

Should allow for a structured, phased exit out of lockdown.

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, super_carson said:

Did they ever publish the "evidence" that these were areas of high transmission?  I always thought it strange that they made such a song and dance about gyms until September yet they stayed open in tier 3.  Not that I'm complaining, in fact I would be pleasantly surprised if a government came out and said they got something wrong first time and were changing it.

Any evidence supporting areas of high transmission produced was circumstantial, based around what people did in the 7 days prior to their test.

Unsurprisingly, supermarkets, schools and public transport were missing from these lists as there was no desire to impose operating restrictions on these.

Also unsurprisingly, it turns out a decent chunk of people visit a pub or restaurant once a week. Who knew.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[gav-ffc]

20 minutes ago, DMCs said:

289,359 1st doses in England - last Sunday was 198,592

9,683 1st doses in Scotland - last Sunday was 11,364

12,898 1st doses in Wales - last Sunday was 6,322

 

 

[madwullie]

29 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

1 hour ago, madwullie said:

TBF the chat has been pretty grim about this for weeks now - it's largely been written off as fear porn / scaremongering / a tactic to keep us in lockdown longer than required. 
The data so far shows that the sa variant is less responsive to vaccines. Not a huge amount, but enough to require tweaking of the vaccine, which will then have to go through its own trials etc again and isn't an immediate process. 
Obviously it's therefore a concern that further variants may arise that cause greater issues than this, and while the govt has been trying to explain this its been drowned out by people scoffing at hypothetical variants etc. 
In some ways, it's exactly the type adult converstion people have been demanding, but because it's not what they want to hear, it's discounted. 

Got a source for the tweaking of a vaccine for new variants having to then go through trials?

I read / saw it earlier. I'll have a hunt

[Bairnardo]

Absolutely not an "I told you so" because I am and have been way too angry for that in recent weeks, but I cant believe there was/is anyone thinking Sturgeons language around the vaccination program ever pointed to anything other than the current shite we are seeing. Between pre emptive blaming of supplies, straw man arguments about care homes and a general "we will do our best" attitude, this was always coming.

Still utterly baffling that something of this scale is being talked about like all that matters is we get round to it at some point.

There is no amount of money they could throw at the tangible route out this mess (vaccines) that would come close to being to much, or that would come close to the amount being thrown at scattergun mitigation tactics.

In the last year we have faced a pandemic the likes of which not seen since the Spanish flu..... We have, globally, undergone measures never even contemplated in peacetime, and in response, scientists have created not one but dozens of vaccines, several of which are approved or soon to be in what is possibly one of the great scientific endeavours of our shared history....

Then it gets handed over to Nicola Sturgeon who oversees Scotland doling out less vaccines than fucking Wales, including a day of sub 10,000 when 40,000 is what's required to meet a previously halved target, and we get "aye, it's on my mind that. We'll have a look".

Keep the inquiry till after Indy, then get her launched out a fucking catapult. Scandalous stuff for weeks now.

[GiGi]

26 minutes ago, DMCs said:

289,359 1st doses in England - last Sunday was 198,592

9,683 1st doses in Scotland - last Sunday was 11,364

12,898 1st doses in Wales - last Sunday was 6,322

 

[madwullie]

32 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

1 hour ago, madwullie said:

TBF the chat has been pretty grim about this for weeks now - it's largely been written off as fear porn / scaremongering / a tactic to keep us in lockdown longer than required. 
The data so far shows that the sa variant is less responsive to vaccines. Not a huge amount, but enough to require tweaking of the vaccine, which will then have to go through its own trials etc again and isn't an immediate process. 
Obviously it's therefore a concern that further variants may arise that cause greater issues than this, and while the govt has been trying to explain this its been drowned out by people scoffing at hypothetical variants etc. 
In some ways, it's exactly the type adult converstion people have been demanding, but because it's not what they want to hear, it's discounted. 

Got a source for the tweaking of a vaccine for new variants having to then go through trials?

I'm pretty sure it was a video I was watching, but similar info is here

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new

No idea about the quality of the source, but it seems fair enough from a scan. 

[Elixir]

I'm fairly sure there would be no need for new large scale trials when updating vaccines to cover any new variants. Updated influenza vaccines certainly do not need go through this same process.

Edit: as per the above, I believe this is because they currently have the time to do this. In future, it won't be necessary.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Elixir

[The Moonster]

Does anyone have the full quote attributed to Sturgeon?

Some folk appear to be having a meltdown over two or three words of what I assume was a full speech. Not defending her here I'd just rather read/hear what she said fully than lose my mind over a tweet designed to make people lose their minds.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

How are you feeling now, did you have any symptoms?

Had a fever and constant cough - these have eased off now, but I'm getting a fair bit of muscle stiffness and joint pain. Pretty tired as well. Spoke to the t&t chap this morning, who sounded pretty optimistic, but did the stiffness and fatigue can persist for quite some time". Still, only four more days in chokey, and a week's annual leave next week, so I'm hopeful I'm over the worst. Mrs WRK seems to be following a similar path.

[super_carson]

11 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Any evidence supporting areas of high transmission produced was circumstantial, based around what people did in the 7 days prior to their test.

Unsurprisingly, supermarkets, schools and public transport were missing from these lists as there was no desire to impose operating restrictions on these.

Also unsurprisingly, it turns out a decent chunk of people visit a pub or restaurant once a week. Who knew.

I meant before the gyms reopened.  I remember that they kept saying there was evidence they would be super-spreader environments but when pressed for a report on it (the owner of my gym tried to get a FoI request) I didn't remember seeing anything other than anecdotal snippets on the news.  Certainly the fact they stayed open in Level 3 would suggest they weren't nearly as bad as was made out in the summer.  

[Bairnardo]

I'm fairly sure there would be no need for new large scale trials when updating vaccines to cover any new variants. Updated influenza vaccines certainly do not need go through this same process.
Edit: as per the above, I believe this is because they currently have the time to do this. In future, it won't be necessary.

The above appears to be indicating a trial of a different vaccination regime. As Pfizer made us aware, they do not consider a 12 week gap to have been "trialled" as in they no not have trial data for that.

I am positive I have read that no further safety or efficacy trials are required for a tweak to the recipe as the technology is proven. That's why they say it's no big deal and can be done in a matter of two or three weeks from a variant being discovered that warrants it.

[madwullie]

24 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I don't think it is that to be honest.

I just think 'cautiousness' at every turn, and flagging up every negative piece of news there is, but less so with postive stories (SA variant mentioned today, but Novavax and J&J vaccines never has been),  has just become so entrenched in their position that its their default setting now.

Livingston one was on the lunchtime news on BBC Scotland. Said we'd ordered another 40m (?) doses

The analysis was that this was evidence that we're looking at a yearly a la flu vaccine strategy. 

I honestly think that they are reporting the news as is - some days there's good news, some bad. Already today there's been the info about immunity crossing the placenta, rumbles of restrictions easing, more widespread discussion of what medium term with fewer restrictions will look like. 

And of course the SA variant has been discovered in apparently community transmission down south - I mean that's important news, I wouldn't want them not to report it. More suspicious imo is the tory obfuscation with "offered" vaccines - sounds like a manufactured good news story to drown out some bad / make them look better than they are

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, super_carson said:

I meant before the gyms reopened.  I remember that they kept saying there was evidence they would be super-spreader environments but when pressed for a report on it (the owner of my gym tried to get a FoI request) I didn't remember seeing anything other than anecdotal snippets on the news.  Certainly the fact they stayed open in Level 3 would suggest they weren't nearly as bad as was made out in the summer.  

Of course they weren't. They were open across Europe as early as May with no ill effects.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[madwullie]

26 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

If it's not an immediate process, how long does it take?

"Tweaking of the vaccine" is said here with negative connotations, but anything I've read so far about this has been overwhelming positive in that it's truly amazing that we're able to track these mutations and alter our treatments as it happens, something that wasn't possible in the past. Of course it's not ideal that the vaccine we already have isn't as effective but we now have much better ways of dealing with this shit. 

People are absolutely right to scoff at fucking idiots like Matt Hancock saying "the variant that scares me is the one that's not been discovered yet". That is not helpful, nor is it part of an informed discussion, it's absolutely "be afraid of the unknown" bullshit. 

This article (again no idea of the source) suggests that it takes a little while but not too long. 

Flu and other vaccines shows it can be done, but given these are entirely new types of vaccine a lot of it is theoretical - which doesn't mean it's hard. 

The suggestion is that large scale trials aren't required, but small scale studies will be to ensure it works with the tweaks. No idea how long these will take, but given they will need to be done, and then the vaccine has to be mass produced and distributed, I presume it's not going to be instantaneous. Although it will be fast. 

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/could-covid-19-vaccines-be-tweaked-cover-new-coronavirus-variants

Again, no idea about this source, I'm just googling trying to find what I was watching this morning. I know f**k all about this other than stuff anyone can find on the Internet. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by madwullie

[The Moonster]

1 minute ago, madwullie said:

This article (again no idea of the source) suggests that it takes a little while but not too long. 

Flu and other vaccines shows it can be done, but given these are entirely new types of vaccine a lot of it is theoretical - which doesn't mean it's hard. 

The suggestion is that large scale trials aren't required, but small scale studies will be to ensure it works with the tweaks. No idea how long these will take, but given they will need to be done, and then the vaccine has to be mass produced and distributed, I presume it's not going to be instantaneous. Although it will be fast. 

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/could-covid-19-vaccines-be-tweaked-cover-new-coronavirus-variants

Again, no idea about this source, I'm just go ogling trying to find what I was watching this morning. 

All sounds pretty positive to me, all things considered.

[superbigal]

On 25/01/2021 at 14:54, superbigal said:

 

Todays summary     As Scotgov are due for what should be an important statement tomorrow, I thought it prudent to do a weekly update for each council as well as  a daily one for the overall summary. Give us a real idea of progress in all of the councils and for that matter in the UK Generally. Surely some plans for emerging from Lockdown on the 15th Feb should be forthcoming. The worst she can get away with is delaying for another 2 weeks max. Main headlines are Aberdeen has plunged through the 100 barrier. 

England 437.8 to 309.5 have dropped 29.31% in 1 week.  Wales 262.6 to 162.2 have dropped 38.23% in 1 week, Northern Ireland 322.4 to 235.3 have dropped 27.02% in 1 week.

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan    

From 16th to 22nd January reported this time last week we were down to  177.3   

Yesterdays figure 22nd Jan to 28th Jan was 141.8

Todays figure for 23rd Jan to 29th Jan is 136.2   Another great single Day drop of 3.95%. Infections have dropped every day (now 25 days in a row) since the aforementioned peak.  Total drop is now 54.89%

The drop from This time last week from 177.3 to 136.2 is an outstanding 23.18%

There were 10 Councils with cases over 200 per 100K a week ago which has now dropped  to 3 

Council progress in last 7 Days as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

North Lanarkshire  284.1 to  225.6     Down 20.59%  

Glasgow City  266.6 to  208.3  Down 21.87% 

North Ayrshire 219.7 to 201.1  Down 8.47%   

South Lanarkshire  234.6 to 189.1 Down 19.39%

East Ayrshire 228.7 to 179.5 Down 21.51%

Renfrewshire  252.4 to 171.4  Down 32.09%

West Dunbartonshire   219.3 to 170.9  Down 22.07%

East Dunbartonshire    231.0 to 169.4 Down 26.67%

East Renfrewshire  167.5 to  164.3  Down 1.91%   

Falkirk   197.7 to 157.3  Down 20.44%

Clackmannanshire 223.1 to 153.3 Down 31.28%

Inverclyde  221.1 to 144.0 Down 34.71%

Dumfries & Galloway 184.1 to 143.8 Down 21.89%

West Lothian  136.0 to 139.8   Up 2.79% 

Stirling  134.8 to 139.1   Up 3.19% 

Angus  151.5 to 139.4  Down 7.98%  

South Ayrshire   178.5 to 134.1 Down 24.87%

Perth & Kinross    138.9 to 121.1  Down 12.81%

Midlothian  129.8 to 115.7  Down 10.86% 

Dundee City 176.8 to 106.5  Down 39.76%   Just an outstanding week.

Moray   138.8 to 102.3  Down 26.30%  

Aberdeen City   154.4 to 86.2 Down 44.17%   Again outstanding and today breeches the 100 marker

Fife   117.8 to 83.3   Down 29.28%  

Scottish  Borders    138.5 to  79.6  Down 42.58% another wow

Highlands 79.7 to 74.6  Down 6.40%

City Of Edinburgh   111.3 to 72.6  Down 34.77%  Really astonishing numbers for our 2nd city. 

Argyll & Bute     60.6 to 72.2  Up 19.14%

East Lothian   97.1 to  71.9  Down 25.95% In stark contrast to it's Lothian neighbour

Western Isles   104.8 to 71.1 Down 32.16%   

Aberdeenshire  112.2 to 70.8 Down 36.89%  another wow

Orkney Island  35.9 to 26.9  Down 25.07%

Shetland Islands  65.4 to 4.4  Down 93.27%

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by superbigal

[realmadrid]

40 minutes ago, super_carson said:

Did they ever publish the "evidence" that these were areas of high transmission?  I always thought it strange that they made such a song and dance about gyms until September yet they stayed open in tier 3.  Not that I'm complaining, in fact I would be pleasantly surprised if a government came out and said they got something wrong first time and were changing it.

There was certainly a large number of changes in my gym in Perth between March and when it opened again in late August.

Half the machines taken out of use, way more cleaning, all the checks at the door, classes areas turned into extra training areas , classes themselves closed down, half the lockers removed, encouraged not to shower at the gym along with all the other changes required. 

All of the above and more will have helped.