Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Snafu said:

I've not seen for what reason why Pfizer have been reducing the deliveries of the vaccine.

I see Italy are threatening them with legal action.

Surely supply must meet demand here unless there is a problem in the manufacturing or they simply can't keep up?

Pfizer say they have to pause production so they can make changes that will allow them to scale it up.

[Billy Jean King]

Heads should be on pikes for any suggestions longer than 2 week rolling reviews.

NI health minister has followed up yesterday's extension to 5 March with a statement today "warning " it's very unlikely to be ended then too.

Not sure what's worse, being drip fed extensions in 2 week rolling reviews or being given the harsh longer term reality ?

[Steven W]

5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

47 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I think after approaching a year, and three (hopefully soon to be four) vaccines on the go, people could do with some hope and optimism in life.

But not false hope. The truth is sometimes hard to take but sugar coating stuff like this helps no one. If the organisers of these events think it's remotely possible they will delay a decision. Clearly Glastonbury organisers didn't.

But my question is centring on "when?"

Surely NS has brought this up herself among her advisors.

[renton]

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-issue-no-35/

Scottish R estimated at 0.8 to 1.1 (median 0.95, then) 

Recommend reading the actual report - they have added more content on how they model demographics they think are testing positive, analysis of Covid in wastewater (shows a trend the same as testing which should confirm we are definitely seeing a decrease in incidence) and you can see the modelling forecasts for beds etc.

[Billy Jean King]

But my question is centring on "when?"
Surely NS has brought this up herself among her advisors.

Neither she, the organisers or anyone else can answer that. In a nutshell no one knows.

[Steven W]

Just now, Billy Jean King said:

2 minutes ago, Steven W said:

But my question is centring on "when?"
Surely NS has brought this up herself among her advisors.

Neither she, the organisers or anyone else can answer that. In a nutshell no one knows.

in that case we're fucked

[Billy Jean King]

Pfizer say they have to pause production so they can make changes that will allow them to scale it up.

EU countries complained about their small share of current production so they agreed to scale back production to enable the necessary plans to be put in place to increase it (if that makes sense)

[Billy Jean King]

in that case we're fucked

Why ? When it's safe enough to hold mass participation events then we will. It's no different to any other sector affected.

[Left Back]

17 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Because people told them they could get more from what they were delivering than they were paying for.

Not quite that although it was a factor (along with a 20% boost to bottom line, greedy b*****ds).  They want to make changes to manufacturing to ultimately speed up the process which means decreasing current supply.  No idea what these changes are.

[Wee Bully]

in that case we're fucked

Chill man.

[TheScarf]

Here for the daily run down from @superbigal

[superbigal]

23 hours ago, superbigal said:

 

Todays summary

Now accessed the other home nations for the cases per 100K latest.   These are a little behind the Scottish cases.  England 484.0,   Wales 300.6, Northern Ireland 367.6  all 3 dropping but slower than Scotland.

For interest Portugal 725, Spain 502, Czech 500 are the big hitters.

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan    So our peak is still lower than where the other nations currently stand.

From 12th to 18th January we were down to  200.4

Todays figure for 13th Jan to 19th Jan is 192.9     Another decent single Day drop of 3.74%. Infections have dropped every day (15 days in a row) since the  aforementioned peak.  Total drop is now 36.10%

The cases WILL drop again tomorrow.  The R rate is calculated by myself at 0.8 to 0.9

 Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map.   I think it is going to be quite difficult to justify keeping the East coast in full lockdown when the "review" is done in 10 days. Currently expect Schools in those areas to be returning after mid term. 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

North Lanarkshire  293.5 to 297.3

Renfrewshire  290.3 to 296.5   

Glasgow City    293.6 to 283.0   Glasgow off the top spot

Clackmannanshire 287.2 to 265.8

North Ayrshire 267.2 to 262.7

Inverclyde  271.2 to 250.6

East Ayrshire  262.3 to 256.5

East Dunbartonshire    235.6 to 238.4

South Lanarkshire  247.4 to 232.4

Dumfries & Galloway 243.9 to 228.4  

Falkirk   230.6  to 218.8 

West Dunbartonshire    229.4 to 218.1

South Ayrshire  214.9 to 208.7

Dundee City 202.3 to 204.3

Aberdeen City  212.1 to 191.1

Western Isles  168.4 to 190.9   Barra and South Uist now over 1000. Rising again up to 42 "current" cases

East Renfrewshire  169.6 to 161.2

Stirling   153.9 to 147.5

Perth & Kinross  159.3 to 143.5

West Lothian  132.7 to 139.8

Angus  163.5 to 138.6  Large Daily drop

Fife   152.9 to 138.7   Large Daily drop

Moray   133.6 to 132.5

Scottish  Borders   128.1 to 124.7

Midlothian   119.0 to 121.1

City Of Edinburgh  127.6 to 119.3   

Aberdeenshire  127.5 to 118.7

East Lothian   123.3 to 112.1

Highlands  111.1 to 95.4  Invergordon now dropping rapidly which is good news.

Shetland Islands   96.0 to 74.2

Argyll & Bute   55.9 to 64.1

Orkney Island  35.9 to 35.9

Edited January 22, 2021 by superbigal

[superbigal]

1 minute ago, TheScarf said:

Here for the daily run down from @superbigal

What took me 

[mizfit]

I'm no expert, in fact I know nothing about how big events are planned and how they are insured but I'm wondering if there is an issue at the moment securing any kind of insurance for cancellations due to Covid. You would imagine insurance companies wouldn't be touching them with a barge pole

Can tell you right now most insurers will be looking to explicitly name a pandemic as an exclusion going forward.

[Billy Jean King]

Todays summary

Now accessed the other home nations for the cases per 100K latest.   These are a little behind the Scottish cases.  England 484.0,   Wales 300.6, Northern Ireland 367.6  all 3 dropping but slower than Scotland.

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan    So our peak is still lower than where the other nations currently stand.
From 12th to 18th January we were down to  200.4
Todays figure for 13th Jan to 19th Jan is 192.9     Another decent single Day drop of 3.74%. Infections have dropped every day (15 days in a row) since the  aforementioned peak.  Total drop is now 36.10%
The cases WILL drop again tomorrow.  The R rate is calculated by myself at 0.8 to 09.
 Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map.   I think it is going to be quite difficult to justify keeping the East coast in full lockdown when the "review" is done in 10 days. Currently expect Schools in those areas to be returning after mid term. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
North Lanarkshire  293.5 to 297.3
Renfrewshire  290.3 to 296.5   
Glasgow City    293.6 to 283.0   Glasgow off the top spot
Clackmannanshire 287.2 to 265.8
North Ayrshire 267.2 to 262.7
Inverclyde  271.2 to 250.6
East Ayrshire  262.3 to 256.5
East Dunbartonshire    235.6 to 238.4
South Lanarkshire  247.4 to 232.4
Dumfries & Galloway 243.9 to 228.4  
Falkirk   230.6  to 218.8 
West Dunbartonshire    229.4 to 218.1
South Ayrshire  214.9 to 208.7
Dundee City 202.3 to 204.3
Aberdeen City  212.1 to 191.1
Western Isles  168.4 to 190.9   Barra and South Uist now over 1000. Rising again up to 42 "current" cases
East Renfrewshire  169.6 to 161.2
Stirling   153.9 to 147.5
Perth & Kinross  159.3 to 143.5
West Lothian  132.7 to 139.8
Angus  163.5 to 138.6
Fife   152.9 to 138.7
Moray   133.6 to 132.5
Scottish  Borders   128.1 to 124.7
Midlothian   119.0 to 121.1
City Of Edinburgh  127.6 to 119.3   
Aberdeenshire  127.5 to 118.7
East Lothian   123.3 to 112.1
Highlands  111.1 to 95.4  Invergordon now dropping rapidly which is good news.
Shetland Islands   96.0 to 74.2
Argyll & Bute   55.9 to 64.1
Orkney Island  35.9 to 35.9

It won't be difficult to justify keeping any area in current restrictions until there is a considerable, sustained drop in hospital / ICU admissions and deaths. Cases per 100k is pretty much irrelevant in isolation. You are not going to see any restrictions eased while the NHS is yet to hit the peak never mind seen sustained easing on resources.

[Rob1885]

Good news about the "R" rate today for sure, hang in there lads and dont read too much of the news. Can be all consuming at times

[Rob1885]

It won't be difficult to justify keeping any area in current restrictions until there is a considerable, sustained drop in hospital / ICU admissions and deaths. Cases per 100k is pretty much irrelevant in isolation. You are not going to see any restrictions eased while the NHS is yet to hit the peak never mind seen sustained easing on resources.

Think the "peak" is happening just now or is early next week. It will be a long and bumpy road but end of this month will see things start to turn I'm sure.

[superbigal]

3 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

It won't be difficult to justify keeping any area in current restrictions until there is a considerable, sustained drop in hospital / ICU admissions and deaths. Cases per 100k is pretty much irrelevant in isolation. You are not going to see any restrictions eased while the NHS is yet to hit the peak never mind seen sustained easing on resources.
 

I accept your point but my figures do paint a decent prognosis going forward.  Still 2 weeks till a review.

Have a look at the NHS figures on the East Side trusts.

Edited January 22, 2021 by superbigal

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, renton said:

So the plan is to vaccinate with first dose somewhere between 1.1 and 1.2 million by middle of February. Is the argument then that the two weeks difference between using 1.2 million doses by January 31st and doing so by February 14th somehow critical?

If you are interested in not burning endless piles of money and punting restrictions into the sea at the earliest possible moment, absolutely.

Wee Jeanne dithering along to retirement in May clearly doesn't though, which is why she should be emptied.

44 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

46 minutes ago, Steven W said:

in that case we're fucked

Why ? When it's safe enough to hold mass participation events then we will. It's no different to any other sector affected.

You can't just magic up events after burning through two years' worth of cash across the industry. The live event sector is going to be a shadow of itself unless governments get their finger out of their arse and provide as much as support as they chucked at feckless Scottish football clubs, if not more.

Edited January 22, 2021 by vikingTON

[ICTChris]

There must have been some support for the live event sector?  Surely?