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In our Tertiary Centre of Excellence we currently have about a third more Covid inpatients than we did at the peak of the first wave: patients do not bounce back quickly from this. Many are left with significant functional impairment and are awaiting community care packages or placements. Even with case numbers going down, we will still be admitting people at a higher rate than we are managing to discharge for a while.

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1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

NS tone and words earlier did not sound as though she will be announcing tomorrow that schools will be going back on February 1st which should generate plenty of seethe.

I know they always say that they will "make the decision tomorrow" but I don't believe they haven't already pretty much decided.

I'm pretty sure it's been known/decided for weeks that they won't be going back Feb 1st. It's never really been in any doubt imo.

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I’ve a couple friends who are teachers and they just want it announced closed until spring.

I’d also make it four days teaching (each core maths and language is being taught this time) plus optional extras. Give teachers Fridays to create the following weeks work. Kids can catch up on weeks work but not expect feedback if that makes sense. 
no idea what’s going on at secondary level.

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I'd imagine the only people surprised, or who complain, that schools aren't going back Feb 1 will be the #usforthem mentalists.
What I'd hope for is some sort of forward plan re: older kids. I think we're going to be stretching it a bit fitting in two prelims pre-Easter; it would be good to know if there'll be an extension of SQA's dates, or if the expectations for evidence will change. Given Swinney's previous I'm not holding out much hope for an update pre-April.
The rumour is that it will be inferred levels for estimates again.
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Write off exams and pretty much a good bit of the curriculum.

I have a 9 and a 5 year old being home schooled. I work shifts 4 on 4 off when it's a week day I'm their unqualified teacher trying to split my time between the 2 of them as well as all the other shite from day life and keeping them away from my wife who is working at home. 

When I'm at work my wife has even less time to give to their education. 

We are not the only ones struggling with this and realistically when the kids go back they are going to all be at different stages of where they need to be.

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2 hours ago, pandarilla said:

A brutal report on bbc news at 6 there, from a hospital in London.

It's quite clear that hospitals both down south and up here are at breaking point - but the case numbers are dropping so hopefully side relief will come in the next few weeks.

Add on the number of those vaccinated and we should be seriously looking at reducing restrictions after February.

Once the hospital numbers start falling, there will be a desperate desire to start easing restrictions. But I'm starting to read more about the need to take it slower than most would like.  A few articles from the past few days about restrictions:

UK 'nowhere near' looking at lifting Covid lockdown restrictions

Lifting lockdown in February would be ‘disaster’, warns Sage scientist

There's a Times article "Mutation could undo Covid vaccination progress if lockdown is ended, expert warns" but as it's behind a paywall, here's a thread about it on twitter.

That aside, the talk of vaccines by end of Feb/Mar for priority groups ignores the fact that they'll only have had the first of a two-dose vaccine, so it'll really be three months later before the priority groups are vaccinated. That's if, the 12 week gap works out as they hope....

Edited by s_dog
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4 minutes ago, Elixir said:

John Edmunds has zero credibility and Martin McKee is an 'Independent SAGE' oddball.

Oh ok, not sure why I'm taking your word for it, but I've never heard of either of them to be honest.... when I saw one was part of independent Sage, I did wonder, but the other guy is part of Sage isn't he? And it's not like either of them are a bit mad like Yeadon or Young. So do they maybe have a bit of a point?

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1 hour ago, Cyclizine said:

In our Tertiary Centre of Excellence we currently have about a third more Covid inpatients than we did at the peak of the first wave: patients do not bounce back quickly from this. Many are left with significant functional impairment and are awaiting community care packages or placements. Even with case numbers going down, we will still be admitting people at a higher rate than we are managing to discharge for a while.

Not sure if you saw the stuff being highlighted last night on this thread of a near 30% readmission rate of those surviving a hospital admission for Covid.

Is that your impression of things here?  I did wonder if the even bigger pressure on beds down south was driving early discharges which then fed into what looks like a dreadful readmission rate. 

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7 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

Not sure if you saw the stuff being highlighted last night on this thread of a near 30% readmission rate of those surviving a hospital admission for Covid.

Is that your impression of things here?  I did wonder if the even bigger pressure on beds down south was driving early discharges which then fed into what looks like a dreadful readmission rate. 

There's certainly a fairly high readmission rate. I couldn't tell you if it's 30%, but I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case. I can probably find out.

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8 minutes ago, Cyclizine said:

There's certainly a fairly high readmission rate. I couldn't tell you if it's 30%, but I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case. I can probably find out.

Cheers. Don't go looking from my point of view.  Suspect you don't need any additional work at the moment.

There was an article in the Guardian about the figures which would seem to be NHS England

Readmission rate.

Edit to add the article confirms the paper has not yet been peer-reviewed.

Edited by Distant Doonhamer
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I reckon the vast majority on here will agree, but even freedom-loving Johnson today was saying people need to be aware it will be a slow and steady approach to reopening. 
That's only because they have fucked it up several times already when opening things up, and what he says now bears absolutely no relevance to what he might say in a day, week or month's time.
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I think the vaccines are actually being underplayed in all honesty, and most scientists do believe they will have a positive effect in reducing transmission, which again I think is being downplayed.

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