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1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said:
4 minutes ago, AyrExile said:
Vaccinations will have a direct correlation as will the weather on restrictions being eased. Perhaps the weather is more important as it’s the main cause of hospitals clogging up  with winter pressures each year

Your right to a point but it still boils down to the same conclusion, we MUST see that happening before we can relax measures. If we are waiting on seasonality reduction it will be May or June at the earliest. I'd be hopeful that vaccination will have numbers reduced sufficiently before that.

No reason why end of March it can’t improve. Alongside old people falling on ice etc staff sickness with colds and flu should be dropping by then. The common theme is the creaking Nhs though and the safety net being applied to stop it breaking 

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Daily review. Overall cases per 100K  for 7 days  peaked  at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan
From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8
Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5   Another single Day drop of 4.42%  and a drop from the peak of 26.30%   If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the  drops.  I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best.   Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet.
NB The UK figure for same dates is 558.2 per 100K or about 2.5 times higher than Scotland.
Glasgow City   351.1 to 338.3  Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ?
North Lanarkshire  345.1 to 323.7
Inverclyde  347.0 to 309.8    Over 10% down and of the top spot
Renfrewshire   304.9 to 302.6
Dumfries & Galloway  283.5 to 285.5  Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000
North Ayrshire  282.0 to 281.3
East Dunbartonshire   289.0 to 272.5
East Ayrshire  264.7 to 270.5
South Lanarkshire  266.7 to 262.1
West Dunbartonshire    267.6 to 253.0
Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5
Dundee City   262.5 to 242.4
Aberdeen City  245.3 to 241.0
Falkirk   224.4 to 225.6
South Ayrshire   222.0 to 225.6
Scottish  Borders   189.6 to 185.3
Fife   193.5 to 180.4
Perth & Kinross  217.2 to 178.3  Down 17.91%
East Renfrewshire  205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81%
Angus  181.6 to 167.8
Highlands  178.9 to 163.3  Invergordon over 1000
Aberdeenshire   167.7 to 148.9  Down 11.28%
Stirling  131.6 to 148.6
West Lothian  156.2 to 144.2
City Of Edinburgh   159.3 to 144.0  Down 10%
Moray    110.6 to 108.5
Midlothian  115.7 to 104.9
East Lothian    99.0 to 100.8
Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 
Shetland Islands  82.9 to 82.9
Argyll & Bute    81.5 to 82.7
Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0
Its going to be interesting to see what reasons come out for the higher rates seen in Glasgow v Edinburgh. Definitely a correlation between higher rates of deprivation and rates of the virus.
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I'm expecting NS to extend the lockdown until the end of February, regardless of what happens between now and the end of January.

It's shite for those impacted (and I include myself in that), but if they are planning on having the most vulnerable get their first dose by mid-feb, and it takes around 3 weeks to be effective, then waiting that extra month will ensure those vaccinated are sufficiently protected.

Many of us here have always said we could get behind the lockdown if the time was being used purposefully, and that would meet that criteria.

A solid explanation of lockdown till 3 weeks after the last of the most vulnerable gets their first dose, then back to the routemap to work our way down the levels (reviewed weekly and applied properly) as hospitalisations etc continue to fall would be acceptable IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

Its going to be interesting to see what reasons come out for the higher rates seen in Glasgow v Edinburgh. Definitely a correlation between higher rates of deprivation and rates of the virus.

Maybe it's because the numbers are too low to be statistically significant  but there doesn't seem to be any correlation in Inverness, Merkinch and Hilton usually hit all the greatest deprivation indicators.

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/what-s-the-covid-infection-rate-where-you-live-225057/

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28 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:
33 minutes ago, superbigal said:
Daily review. Overall cases per 100K  for 7 days  peaked  at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan
From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8
Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5   Another single Day drop of 4.42%  and a drop from the peak of 26.30%   If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the  drops.  I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best.   Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet.
Glasgow City   351.1 to 338.3  Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ?
North Lanarkshire  345.1 to 323.7
Inverclyde  347.0 to 309.8    Over 10% down and of the top spot
Renfrewshire   304.9 to 302.6
Dumfries & Galloway  283.5 to 285.5  Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000
North Ayrshire  282.0 to 281.3
East Dunbartonshire   289.0 to 272.5
East Ayrshire  264.7 to 270.5
South Lanarkshire  266.7 to 262.1
West Dunbartonshire    267.6 to 253.0
Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5
Dundee City   262.5 to 242.4
Aberdeen City  245.3 to 241.0
Falkirk   224.4 to 225.6
South Ayrshire   222.0 to 225.6
Scottish  Borders   189.6 to 185.3
Fife   193.5 to 180.4
Perth & Kinross  217.2 to 178.3  Down 17.91%
East Renfrewshire  205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81%
Angus  181.6 to 167.8
Highlands  178.9 to 163.3  Invergordon over 1000
Aberdeenshire   167.7 to 148.9  Down 11.28%
Stirling  131.6 to 148.6
West Lothian  156.2 to 144.2
City Of Edinburgh   159.3 to 144.0  Down 10%
Moray    110.6 to 108.5
Midlothian  115.7 to 104.9
East Lothian    99.0 to 100.8
Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 
Shetland Islands  82.9 to 82.9
Argyll & Bute    81.5 to 82.7
Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0

Are you going to start doing similar for hospital admissions, ICU numbers etc as those are a far better indicator to relaxing measures than new cases. Test positivity levels will have very little bearing while the pressure continues to grow on the NHS.

All I would say on that point is infections have been dropping for about 10 days.  If we assume hospital admissions are generally 7-10 days after confirmed infection then by default they should now start to drop.  Deaths maybe another week to 10 days behind that. All just theory of course.

The R rate is not well over 1 though.  

Edited by superbigal
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If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.

You'd hope and expect that the vaccine will have had some sort of impact by then. I'm sure the current criteria for tier 4 is 300 cases per 100k but that sort of becomes redundant if we reach a point where none (or very little) of those cases require hospital treatment.

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If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.

You'd hope and expect that the vaccine will have had some sort of impact by then. I'm sure the current criteria for tier 4 is 300 cases per 100k but that sort of becomes redundant if we reach a point where none (or very little) of those cases require hospital treatment.



Any (temporary) return to tiers should take into consideration vaccinated portion of the local population and hospital numbers.
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1 minute ago, Ron Aldo said:

If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.

You'd hope and expect that the vaccine will have had some sort of impact by then. I'm sure the current criteria for tier 4 is 300 cases per 100k but that sort of becomes redundant if we reach a point where none (or very little) of those cases require hospital treatment.

Very true.

I wouldn't be holding my breath for that happening immediately, though.

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Those who claim that we can't possibly tell how vaccinations will directly impact the course of the pandemic in future weeks will be fuming to discover that experts are doing, erm, just that:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/17/first-fruits-of-vaccine-rollout-should-be-seen-in-weeks-experts-predict

Still, what would an organisation like the 'Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group' know about inferring future outcomes from relatively straightforward, causal relationships? Best to wait and see what happens instead!

This is exactly the sort of modelling that governments should be plugging in to their plan on how and when to reduce restrictions. As the vaccination uptake changes then you simply adjust the expected outcomes as well, instead of reacting to the latest testing figures and then launching some back of a fag packet changes at a press briefing.

Edited by vikingTON
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I'm expecting NS to extend the lockdown until the end of February, regardless of what happens between now and the end of January.
It's shite for those impacted (and I include myself in that), but if they are planning on having the most vulnerable get their first dose by mid-feb, and it takes around 3 weeks to be effective, then waiting that extra month will ensure those vaccinated are sufficiently protected.
Many of us here have always said we could get behind the lockdown if the time was being used purposefully, and that would meet that criteria.
A solid explanation of lockdown till 3 weeks after the last of the most vulnerable gets their first dose, then back to the routemap to work our way down the levels (reviewed weekly and applied properly) as hospitalisations etc continue to fall would be acceptable IMO.
Raab today indicated it would be "March" before the UKG consider exiting "lockdown" such as it is and revisiting the tiers approach. The SG will not contemplate any move ahead of that bar possibly schools returning after the Feb holidays.
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If we do go back to the tier system at the end of February (just as an example) then would people say its likely that the criteria for who goes into what tier should be changed from cases to hospital admissions.

That's never been the sole criteria. It's all been quite clearly explained on the gov.scot website for months.

The five main criteria are:

1. New case rate over previous seven days.
2. Percentage of tests positive over previous seven days.
3. Forecast of new cases over next fourteen days.
4. Current and projected percentage of hospital beds in use.
5. Current and projected percentage of ICU beds in use.
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5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:
54 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:
I'm expecting NS to extend the lockdown until the end of February, regardless of what happens between now and the end of January.
It's shite for those impacted (and I include myself in that), but if they are planning on having the most vulnerable get their first dose by mid-feb, and it takes around 3 weeks to be effective, then waiting that extra month will ensure those vaccinated are sufficiently protected.
Many of us here have always said we could get behind the lockdown if the time was being used purposefully, and that would meet that criteria.
A solid explanation of lockdown till 3 weeks after the last of the most vulnerable gets their first dose, then back to the routemap to work our way down the levels (reviewed weekly and applied properly) as hospitalisations etc continue to fall would be acceptable IMO.

Raab today indicated it would be "March" before the UKG consider exiting "lockdown" such as it is and revisiting the tiers approach. The SG will not contemplate any move ahead of that bar possibly schools returning after the Feb holidays.

Ah ok. Well there you go!

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2 hours ago, virginton said:

old fatties

Ffs!

And you are one of the most ardent supporters of the supposed "adult conversation" I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say judging by you're comments we are getting the adult conversation we deserve.

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1 minute ago, 101 said:

Ffs!

And you are one of the most ardent supporters of the supposed "adult conversation" I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say judging by you're comments we are getting the adult conversation we deserve.

Would you prefer 'elderly and challenged by a buffet spread'?

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Just now, virginton said:

Would you prefer 'elderly and challenged by a buffet spread'?

Not all of the most vulnerable to this virus are old or fat. You're doing yourself a disservice dumbing it down that level. You'll be telling us the difference between shiny and non shiny wrapping paper next.

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