Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Forest_Fifer]

Fife have finished the first round of doses in care homes and are now on to the over 80s excellent news after I was fairly sceptical of how fast they would get through them.
 

Hopefully that'll mean my mum gets done soon. She's been told in no uncertain terms that she's having it.

[Billy Jean King]

Great stuff for a Friday afternoon - a Johnson press conference. 
Let's see how can ruin what will alrwsdy be a shite weekend further. 

The weekends aren't great but still better than Mon-Fri for most if us !!!

[renton]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/15/german-covvaccine-officials-play-name-game-to-comply-with-data-privacy-laws

I mean, that is just brilliant. 

One of the German districts with particularly strict data privacy rules and has no access to health records is using data  from the post office data... but since that only has a partial DoB attached they are guessing who is old and in priority groups based on what their first name is.

[FuzzyBear]

Norway stopping care home vaccinations after 23 deaths linked to Pfizer vaccine.

[Billy Jean King]

24 week mass immunisation plan drawn up by NHS Ayrshire and Arran and 11 mass vaccination centres identified in S Ayrshire alone. All will be ready to start as planned on 1 Feb according to the CEO of SAC. The 24 weeks would be the time they are allowing to vaccinate every person over 17 with 2 doses. If other authorities at least match this that would be everyone 18 and over fully vaccinated by July.

[superbigal]

On 14/01/2021 at 14:33, superbigal said:

Another day on and Scotgov misleading the public with this R Rate is 1.4 bullshit.   The lag on my data is 3 days and I estimate the R rate at around 0.98

Please remember all those commenting that these figures are a 7 day rolling period that are 3 days in arrears.   So I am NEVER talking about YESTERDAY as some posters keep referring.  There is no LAG in these figures only a fixed 7 day period.

Anyway 4th Jan to 10th Jan was 271.7 cases per 100K population with confirmed positive tests.   5th Jan to11th Jan is down to 267.4 a small drop of 1.58%.     We now have a sustained  drop of  11.43% since the peak figures 7 days ago.  Another good single day change for many councils as 4th January is dropped and replaced by 11th January. Numerous councils now below 200 cases per 100K which is well under what Glasgow & lanarkshire etc was at in the Autumn.

Huge drop in cases (Over 10%)    Angus (11.88%),  East Lothian (Almost down to 100 cases per 100K), Moray,  Shetlands, 

Large drop in cases (Over 5%)  Aberdeenshire,  Clackmannanshire,  Dumfries & Galloway, East Renfrewshire,  South Ayrshire,     

Small drop in cases (Under 5%) in Aberdeen, City of Edinburgh, Dundee City,  East Ayrshire,   East Dunbartonshire,  Falkirk, Fife, Highlands,  Inverclyde, Midlothian,   Renfrewshire, Scottish Borders, Stirling, West Dunbartonshire,

No Change in cases in  Glasgow City  (Still very high so this should be doing better than 396.9), Orkney Isles,

Small increase in cases (All under 5%) Argyll & Bute (Only 2 more cases),  North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, Perth & Kinross, South Lanarkshire,  West Lothian

Larger Increase in cases (Over 5%)     No Councils

Huge Increase in Cases (Over 10%)  Western Isles (Only 1 extra case)

Another day on and Scotgov misleading the public with this R Rate is 1.4 bullshit.   The lag on my data is 3 days and I estimate the R rate at around 0.98

I stick to this point that I believe it is currently fear that they are using.

Please remember all those commenting that these figures are a 7 day rolling period that are 3 days in arrears.   So I am NEVER talking about YESTERDAY as some posters keep referring.  There is no LAG in these figures only a fixed 7 day period.

Anyway 5th Jan to 11th Jan was 267.4 cases per 100K population with confirmed positive tests.   6th Jan to12th Jan is down to 248.1 a substantial drop of 7.22% !!!.     We now have a sustained  drop of  17.83% since the peak figures 8 days ago.  Another good single day change for many councils as 5th January is dropped and replaced by 12th January. Numerous councils now below 200 cases per 100K which is well under what Glasgow & lanarkshire etc was at in the Autumn.  I will probably do a council real performance over these 8 days in due course but the usual 1 day summary for now.

Huge drop in cases (Over 10%)    Aberdeenshire (Down 16.85%), City of Edinburgh, Dundee City (Down 15.09%), Inverclyde, Midlothian (Down 16.32%), Moray,  Western Isles (Only 1 less case), Orkney Isles(Only 1 less case),  Renfrewshire (Down 14.01%), Scottish Borders (Down 14.95%), 

Large drop in cases (Over 5%)    Dumfries & Galloway,  East Ayrshire, East Lothian, Falkirk, Glasgow City, North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, South Ayrshire,  South Lanarkshire, 

Small drop in cases (Under 5%) in Aberdeen, Angus, Argyll & Bute, East Renfrewshire,  Fife, Highlands,  Perth & Kinross, Shetlands,   West Lothian

No Change in cases in  No Councils

Small increase in cases (All under 5%)  East Dunbartonshire,  Stirling, West Dunbartonshire, 

Larger Increase in cases (Over 5%)    Clackmannanshire,

Huge Increase in Cases (Over 10%) No Councils

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, FuzzyBear said:

Norway stopping care home vaccinations after 23 deaths linked to Pfizer vaccine.

I'm not seeing that, just that the very frail terminally ill shouldn't always be given it.

[madwullie]

 

 

[Detournement]

11 minutes ago, renton said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/15/german-covvaccine-officials-play-name-game-to-comply-with-data-privacy-laws

I mean, that is just brilliant. 

One of the German districts with particularly strict data privacy rules and has no access to health records is using data  from the post office data... but since that only has a partial DoB attached they are guessing who is old and in priority groups based on what their first name is.

You don't see many Helmuts or Klaus any more. It's all Mario, Lukas and Christian. Sad.

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

Another day on and Scotgov misleading the public with this R Rate is 1.4 bullshit.   The lag on my data is 3 days and I estimate the R rate at around 0.98
I stick to this point that I believe it is currently fear that they are using.
Please remember all those commenting that these figures are a 7 day rolling period that are 3 days in arrears.   So I am NEVER talking about YESTERDAY as some posters keep referring.  There is no LAG in these figures only a fixed 7 day period.
Anyway 5th Jan to 11th Jan was 267.4 cases per 100K population with confirmed positive tests.   6th Jan to12th Jan is down to 248.1 a substantial drop of 7.22% !!!.     We now have a sustained  drop of  17.83% since the peak figures 8 days ago.  Another good single day change for many councils as 5th January is dropped and replaced by 12th January. Numerous councils now below 200 cases per 100K which is well under what Glasgow & lanarkshire etc was at in the Autumn.  I will probably do a council real performance over these 8 days in due course but the usual 1 day summary for now.
Huge drop in cases (Over 10%)    Aberdeenshire (Down 16.85%), City of Edinburgh, Dundee City (Down 15.09%), Inverclyde, Midlothian (Down 16.32%), Moray,  Western Isles (Only 1 less case), Orkney Isles(Only 1 less case),  Renfrewshire (Down 14.01%), Scottish Borders (Down 14.95%), 
Large drop in cases (Over 5%)    Dumfries & Galloway,  East Ayrshire, East Lothian, Falkirk, Glasgow City, North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, South Ayrshire,  South Lanarkshire, 
Small drop in cases (Under 5%) in Aberdeen, Angus, Argyll & Bute, East Renfrewshire,  Fife, Highlands,  Perth & Kinross, Shetlands,   West Lothian
No Change in cases in  No Councils
Small increase in cases (All under 5%)  East Dunbartonshire,  Stirling, West Dunbartonshire, 
Larger Increase in cases (Over 5%)    Clackmannanshire,
Huge Increase in Cases (Over 10%) No Councils

Hopefully this overall trend continues and we can get back to the levels system on Feb 1st.

[renton]

Just now, Detournement said:

You don't see many Helmuts or Klaus any more. It's all Mario, Lukas and Christian. Sad.

Apparently an issue is the revival of old names in the current generation of pre teens...

[madwullie]

Sorry to just post twitter threads, but here is one about the Brazil variant. Particularly of interest due to it arising in Manuas, which was estimated to be ~75% infected in the first wave and a prime candidate for herd immunity. Yet they're still getting rattled now. 

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by madwullie

[Detournement]

4 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I'm not seeing that, just that the very frail terminally ill shouldn't always be given it.

My gran had was hospitalised after a flu vaccine two years ago and isn't going to take this one. 

She's hardcore about isolating though! 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

You don't see many Helmuts or Klaus any more. It's all Mario, Lukas and Christian. Sad.

Few helmets on here tbf

[Bairnardo]

You don't see many Helmuts

Speak for yourself m9

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Another day on and Scotgov misleading the public with this R Rate is 1.4 bullshit.   The lag on my data is 3 days and I estimate the R rate at around 0.98

I stick to this point that I believe it is currently fear that they are using.

Please remember all those commenting that these figures are a 7 day rolling period that are 3 days in arrears.   So I am NEVER talking about YESTERDAY as some posters keep referring.  There is no LAG in these figures only a fixed 7 day period.

Anyway 5th Jan to 11th Jan was 267.4 cases per 100K population with confirmed positive tests.   6th Jan to12th Jan is down to 248.1 a substantial drop of 7.22% !!!.     We now have a sustained  drop of  17.83% since the peak figures 8 days ago.  Another good single day change for many councils as 5th January is dropped and replaced by 12th January. Numerous councils now below 200 cases per 100K which is well under what Glasgow & lanarkshire etc was at in the Autumn.  I will probably do a council real performance over these 8 days in due course but the usual 1 day summary for now.

Huge drop in cases (Over 10%)    Aberdeenshire (Down 16.85%), City of Edinburgh, Dundee City (Down 15.09%), Inverclyde, Midlothian (Down 16.32%), Moray,  Western Isles (Only 1 less case), Orkney Isles(Only 1 less case),  Renfrewshire (Down 14.01%), Scottish Borders (Down 14.95%), 

Large drop in cases (Over 5%)    Dumfries & Galloway,  East Ayrshire, East Lothian, Falkirk, Glasgow City, North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, South Ayrshire,  South Lanarkshire, 

Small drop in cases (Under 5%) in Aberdeen, Angus, Argyll & Bute, East Renfrewshire,  Fife, Highlands,  Perth & Kinross, Shetlands,   West Lothian

No Change in cases in  No Councils

Small increase in cases (All under 5%)  East Dunbartonshire,  Stirling, West Dunbartonshire, 

Larger Increase in cases (Over 5%)    Clackmannanshire,

Huge Increase in Cases (Over 10%) No Councils

I'm not disputing your figures, however I'd doubt very much that they're "using fear", simply because very few of our population would be able to tell you anything about "R numbers" or what it actually meant.

In a nutshell, they'd be flogging a dead horse.

I'd also reckon that the real "worry" for ordinary people will be created by word of mouth on people they know who've got it or are in hospital or indeed have died, coupled with the daily news pictures and reports from our overwhelmed hospitals and emergency services.

These things all bring it home, not bare stats which the majority wont or can't either read or interpret.

[doulikefish]

5 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Sorry to just post twitter threads, but here is one about the Brazil variant. Particularly of interest due to it arising in Manuas, which was estimated to be ~75% infected in the diets wave and a prime candidate for herd immunity. Yet they're still getting rattled now. 

 

At work but check for the news story of the mayor of manaus diving off of a boat to swim on to the beach to open up beach party season.

4 friends that i used to regulary skype/keep in touch with from my time working in Brazil have vanished from social media for a few months so i have presumed that the covid got them when it was running rampant (it still is) down there

[MONKMAN]

3 hours ago, craigkillie said:

I've got a PhD in statistics.

[Elixir]

1 hour ago, 101 said:

Reduced effectiveness of the vaccinations seems to be the case in Brazil. If they are only 50% effective we won't get the buy in of enough people to return to anything more than the summer relaxations.

There is zero evidence for this.

I believe this variant has been known about since July.

Vaccine candidates were trialled in Brazil at this time.

[superbigal]

On 05/01/2021 at 15:37, superbigal said:

 

 

Good Afternoon. 10 Days on from my last full review it is worth a complete council update.  

Overall cases per 100K  for 7 days  in period from 27th Dec to 2nd January was 279.7

This peaked a few days later at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan

From 6th to 12th January we are now at 248.1

Let us just take a look at the councils and the progress from the figures I had 10 days ago.

They are now ranked in worst order but today. 

I think everyone locked down, all schools shut.  You now once again see who are the naughty people as they leap back to the top. It is the same old as back in the Autumn !!!  People in our largest city really do need to get a grip.

Most of the suprise councils have clearly taken it seriously. 

Inverclyde  578.4   dropped to 374.0   Down 35.33%

Glasgow City  315.6 to 370.7  Up 17.46%

North Lanarkshire  402.2  to 370.0 Down 8.01%

Renfrewshire  414.9 to 328.9 Down 23.87%

Dumfries & Galloway  536.1 to 321.1 Down 40.10%

East Dunbartonshire  265.1 to 301.9  Up 13.88% 

North Ayrshire  321.4  to 299.1 Down 6.94%

South Lanarkshire    278.0 to 288.6 Up 3.81%

East Ayrshire  366.4  to 280.3 Down 23.50%

Dundee City   382.4  to 275.2  Down 28.03%

West Dunbartonshire    250.8 to 271.0  Up 8.05%

Aberdeen City  277.3 to 251.9  Down 9.16%

Clackmannanshire 194.0 to 248.4 Up 28.04%

Falkirk   269.7  to 239.3  Down 11.27% 

Perth & Kinross  219.2 to 231.7  Up 5.70%

South Ayrshire  214.0  to 222.9  Up 4.16%

Scottish  Borders   432.0  to 215.6 Down 50.09%

East Renfrewshire  365.3  to 212.5 Down 41.83%

Fife   194.6 to 207.7  Up 6.73%

Angus  230.6 to 191.9  Down 16.78%

Aberdeenshire   259.2 to 188.0 Down 27.47%

Highlands 186.2 to 177.7  Down 4.57%

City Of Edinburgh   239.1 to 175.5  Down 26.60%

Stirling 142.2  to 165.6  Up 16.46%

West Lothian  175.3  to 153.5  Down 12.43%

Midlothian   204.4 to 127.6  Down 37.57%

Moray   123.1 to 125.2  Up 1.71% 

East Lothian   146.6 to 103.7  Down 29.26%

Shetland Islands  240.0 to 87.3  Down 63.63%

 Argyll & Bute    85.0 to 86.2 Up 1.41%

We shall Ignore the Islands for this excercise.

Edited January 15, 2021 by superbigal