Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[super_carson]

The other thing we need to remember is that the experts who are making all the noise about continuing restrictions only represent one area of expertise. They are not economists, education experts, finance or infrastructure specialists.

Of course they have been vitally important in the last 10 months, but as more and more people get vaccinated and hospital numbers decline there has to be a more balanced canvassing of opinion from the government and decisions made will have to find that balance. Yes, an indefinite lockdown is the most effective way to protect everyone from transmitted diseases and viruses but it is barely sustainable now let alone another year. It also has catastrophic effects on the rest of society that will be worse than covid ever could have been. People can be sceptical about mental health if they wish, but there is a plethora of data to show that poverty is responsible for premature deaths on a massive scale.

Of course, some restrictions will be necessary regarding international travel and perhaps visiting care homes and hospitals and these would probably represent a sensible compromise. But if these whole scale restrictions on people carry on much longer then eventually people will snap.

My main concern is that governments have been all too willing to hammer the wider popluation with restrictions on freedoms and bombard us with emotional messaging. Its created an even more fractious society where people who are, statistically, at no serious risk from covid are petrified to go outside as well as moralising and pious criticism of anyone who challenges or questions restrictions.

It's also worrying just how easily people are accepting these restrictions now, as if we've been conditioned that it's all for the greater good, when we should be questioning why governments still haven't developed a proper, balanced strategy yet. It sets a dangerous precednet for the next major crisis.

I don't mean we should be being moon howler covid deniers, but I dont think it's wrong for people to be saying that enough is enough once hospital rates fall. There should be an agreement, that rates fall to a certain level for a certain *reasonable* period of time and we lift restrictions piece by piece throughout spring and summer.

[Guest TheJTS98]

3 minutes ago, Les Cabbage said:

I heard some of the money came from Hamilton Accies, something about a   ̶N̶i̶g̶e̶r̶i̶a̶n̶ Malasyian Prince.

It's an absolutely tremendous story.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1Malaysia_Development_Berhad_scandal

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

2 minutes ago, super_carson said:

The other thing we need to remember is that the experts who are making all the noise about continuing restrictions only represent one area of expertise. They are not economists, education experts, finance or infrastructure specialists.

Of course they have been vitally important in the last 10 months, but as more and more people get vaccinated and hospital numbers decline there has to be a more balanced canvassing of opinion from the government and decisions made will have to find that balance. Yes, an indefinite lockdown is the most effective way to protect everyone from transmitted diseases and viruses but it is barely sustainable now let alone another year. It also has catastrophic effects on the rest of society that will be worse than covid ever could have been. People can be sceptical about mental health if they wish, but there is a plethora of data to show that poverty is responsible for premature deaths on a massive scale.

Of course, some restrictions will be necessary regarding international travel and perhaps visiting care homes and hospitals and these would probably represent a sensible compromise. But if these whole scale restrictions on people carry on much longer then eventually people will snap.

My main concern is that governments have been all too willing to hammer the wider popluation with restrictions on freedoms and bombard us with emotional messaging. Its created an even more fractious society where people who are, statistically, at no serious risk from covid are petrified to go outside as well as moralising and pious criticism of anyone who challenges or questions restrictions.

It's also worrying just how easily people are accepting these restrictions now, as if we've been conditioned that it's all for the greater good, when we should be questioning why governments still haven't developed a proper, balanced strategy yet. It sets a dangerous precednet for the next major crisis.

I don't mean we should be being moon howler covid deniers, but I dont think it's wrong for people to be saying that enough is enough once hospital rates fall. There should be an agreement, that rates fall to a certain level for a certain *reasonable* period of time and we lift restrictions piece by piece throughout spring and summer.

Excellent post my honest man friend. 

 

[Guest TheJTS98]

3 minutes ago, super_carson said:

I don't mean we should be being moon howler covid deniers, but I dont think it's wrong for people to be saying that enough is enough once hospital rates fall. There should be an agreement, that rates fall to a certain level for a certain *reasonable* period of time and we lift restrictions piece by piece throughout spring and summer.

I don't think anybody really disagrees with this. The issue is what constitutes 'reasonable' and based on what evidence.

Numbers will drop in the UK soon. The questions are by how much, why, and what does that mean going forward. That all remains to be worked out.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

31 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

I dont have huge confidence in the public of this country to demand anything. Getting to point of sounding like Confederate flag waving, constitution wanking redneck going on about government intervention but the "mood music" is heading towards nanny state of never before seen levels.

It does seem we have been conditioned an ever stronger  nanny state which I think has been the biggest downside of the snp's time in power . is there cultural reasons why this is somehow necessary? because it surely can't be popular.  For instance is there a greater percentage of scots who take the attitude that unless they are directly prevented from doing something they will do whatever they want regardless ?  you do see examples of this with neds taking large carry outs to places which are also popular with young families and causing bother, does such a thing not happen in Germany of Lithuania? 

Edited January 13, 2021 by effeffsee_the2nd

[Bairnardo]

9 minutes ago, super_carson said:

The other thing we need to remember is that the experts who are making all the noise about continuing restrictions only represent one area of expertise. They are not economists, education experts, finance or infrastructure specialists.

Of course they have been vitally important in the last 10 months, but as more and more people get vaccinated and hospital numbers decline there has to be a more balanced canvassing of opinion from the government and decisions made will have to find that balance. 

Yeah, the thing about scientists is their work is always curtailed by the needs of the people who fund them. On this occasion, these particular scientists have been handed a blank canvas the likes of which they could never imagine. They now want to use to to study and experiment and gather data. All the while, people are suffering badly with the worst still to come. I said before Devi Sridhar reeks of being drunk on power. I just hope Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to make the tougher calls, but the attitude of the scientists of course makes 

6 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

I don't think anybody really disagrees with this. The issue is what constitutes 'reasonable' and based on what evidence.

Numbers will drop in the UK soon. The questions are by how much, why, and what does that mean going forward. That all remains to be worked out.

^^this bit, all the more worrying. Because there are quite literally people in positions of serious power who will want to keep restrictions in place while they do some extra learning. 

[Guest TheJTS98]

3 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

 

^^this bit, all the more worrying. Because there are quite literally people in positions of serious power who will want to keep restrictions in place while they do some extra learning. 

Depends on how you define 'extra'. I think they are some worthwhile things to know.

I see it as like saving for a house deposit. You can go on expensive holidays for a few years and accept that you need to keep paying someone else's mortgage with your rent for short-term enjoyment, or you can take the hit on having shite holidays for a bit to get to the point of having a deposit and getting on with your own financial life faster.

If we get this year wrong, restrictions will be with us for longer. Nobody wants that, surely.

[Paco]

I don't mean we should be being moon howler covid deniers, but I dont think it's wrong for people to be saying that enough is enough once hospital rates fall. There should be an agreement, that rates fall to a certain level for a certain *reasonable* period of time and we lift restrictions piece by piece throughout spring and summer.

This post is good, and I’d be very surprised if this is not ultimately the strategy in the Western world in a few months time, with the usual assumptions about vaccines working, rollout going OK, no major changes to the virus, etc.

The lockdown has only ever been to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed. Any politician claiming otherwise is lying. If it provided the same number of deaths but the oldies had the decency to die quickly and not clog up hospitals, and hundreds of thousands didn’t need treatment for a few days, life would’ve been normal for the past year.

If we remove that problem - and the signs are promising that we are - then the pandemic, at least in this country and at least for now, is over. I think we’re in danger of falling down a rabbit hole on here with outrage about something that’s not going to happen. To hold strong restrictions in place over summer, with vaccinated vulnerable populations and (hopefully) naturally low case numbers as a result of warmer weather, would require virtual global acquiescence - the UK is not going to sit watching while France and Germany reopen their economies, or vice versa.

I still expect a much better summer than last year. I don’t see full-capacity football games or concerts in August but I do expect big crowds. I expect pubs open, a few lingering things from last year but I don’t expect to worry about a head-count or anything like that. It’ll be better. I probably don’t expect to be in offices in normal numbers this year, but I’d be surprised if we don’t see more of a return with half or a third of capacity. Holidays and travel... I’d probably have expected to happen but the mood music appears to be turning there. Not the worst thing if it means normal life can return here. I can make my peace with it.

Fairly normal, enough to enjoy yourself. That’s on the horizon, I expect. No need to panic because an advisor or two is making predictions - even P&B’s favourite Devi is demanding virtual normality here next year.

[Bairnardo]

12 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

Depends on how you define 'extra'. I think they are some worthwhile things to know.

I see it as like saving for a house deposit. You can go on expensive holidays for a few years and accept that you need to keep paying someone else's mortgage with your rent for short-term enjoyment, or you can take the hit on having shite holidays for a bit to get to the point of having a deposit and getting on with your own financial life faster.

If we get this year wrong, restrictions will be with us for longer. Nobody wants that, surely.

I can see the logic here. But I think this being the attitude of government would represent an under appreciation of the damage being done to people by the measures. 

I think (with the limitations of not being an epidemiologist) we need to get to the point where we can bet with educated confidence on the fact that although loosening will result in cases, cases are inevitable and we dont belive hospitals will see too much impact. That's a personal idea of where our risk tolerance should be at

I also think that there people advising the government who will be saying that actually, there should be no reliance on the vaccine as a barrier and that we need to drive case loads low and keep them there, with the use of restrictions. I just hope the government have the stomach to tell the latter, who are basically idealists, to bolt. But have little confidence in this. 

[effeffsee_the2nd]

15 minutes ago, Paco said:

. Holidays and travel... I’d probably have expected to happen but the mood music appears to be turning there. Not the worst thing if it means normal life can return here. I can make my peace with it.

 

 

 

said enough times, live life safely  like it's 2019 at home with almost zero foreign travel. most people would bite your hand off right now. after a year they would get pissed off that they cant go to Tenerife , but if Tenerife has 24/7 mask wearing , curfews and bars and clubs closed then they wouldn't want to go anyway

[101]

46 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

Over 80s should all be vaccinated in FV by end of January - 1st dose.

I'd have stuck teachers at top of list also mind you.

Is vaccinated the term for one or two doses? I have a feeling it will become confusing if it's one.

[renton]

Anyone want to place a bet on the number of jabs delivered in today's briefing?

[Aubrey Maturin]

Just now, 101 said:

Is vaccinated the term for one or two doses? I have a feeling it will become confusing if it's one.

Oh no just the one dose, that seems to be the way ahead for now.   Can see the logic if 90pct effective 1st jab and only a 5pct increase 2nd so get as many 1st jabs done as possible.

 

 

[101]

Just now, Tynierose said:

Oh no just the one dose, that seems to be the way ahead for now.   Can see the logic if 90pct effective 1st jab and only a 5pct increase 2nd so get as many 1st jabs done as possible.

 

 

That makes sense maybe those who have had both doses can be called "Maxinated"?

90% in one does makes me question the sense on getting folk back for the second does so soon, from my non medical view I would think get everyone done and then start again. Maybe give NHS staff both doses or something.

[Marshmallo]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

Anyone want to place a bet on the number of jabs delivered in today's briefing?

It will be more than yesterday's 12k but not by much. I'll go 15k.

[Guest TheJTS98]

7 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

I also think that there people advising the government who will be saying that actually, there should be no reliance on the vaccine as a barrier and that we need to drive case loads low and keep them there, with the use of restrictions. I just hope the government have the stomach to tell the latter, who are basically idealists, to bolt. But have little confidence in this. 

I don't doubt there will be some, but I think any such advice will be told to bolt on the grounds of the economy. I don't see that becoming a mainstream view we need to worry about.

[djchapsticks]

7 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

said enough times, live life safely  like it's 2019 at home with almost zero foreign travel. most people would bite your hand off right now. after a year they would get pissed off that they cant go to Tenerife , but if Tenerife has 24/7 mask wearing , curfews and bars and clubs closed then they wouldn't want to go anyway

Yup, I've essentially privately written off any sort of significant foreign travel until at least 2022, probably 2023 and I'm quite comfortable with that if it means we can live our normal lives in this country as that is the very top priority.

I certainly don't enjoy the idea of never getting abroad again, though. I don't think people can be blamed for being upset at this prospect.

Edited January 13, 2021 by djchapsticks

[Guest TheJTS98]

7 minutes ago, 101 said:

Is vaccinated the term for one or two doses? I have a feeling it will become confusing if it's one.

Apparently 90% of the efficacy is there after one dose. So not sure what the figures will count.

[Scosha]

2 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

It will be more than yesterday's 12k but not by much. I'll go 15k.

But everything is fine and we'll be well on track. 

[Bairnardo]

2 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

I don't doubt there will be some, but I think any such advice will be told to bolt on the grounds of the economy. I don't see that becoming a mainstream view we need to worry about.

I hope so, but again to mention the form guide, the people who have dropped hints that subsequently came to pass are often the ones saying differently. 

Youl have to forgive me, after months of this shit, for wanting to see and hear some more positive language from those elected to lead us before making any assumptions.