Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Guest TheJTS98]

1 hour ago, hk blues said:

OK, but doesn't that provide a huge hurdle for us to overcome in the current pandemic?  I suppose stores can simply state that no-one not wearing a mask can enter regardless on public health grounds.  They  could then leave the door open for those with exemptions to prove their exemption.  Not living in the UK, I don't know how big the problem is - where I am compliance is 100% and there are no exemptions.  

It's the same where I am. No mask, no supermarket or shopping centre for you. I can't recall seeing any exceptions.

Does the UK really have more people who have urgent medical need not to wear a mask than other countries?

Edited January 13, 2021 by TheJTS98

[Guest TheJTS98]

10 hours ago, theportman said:

17 hours ago, welshbairn said:

When they get the over 80s and housebound out of way it should be easier to ramp it up to conveyer belt stuff.

Ramp it up and following the protocols can get so far into the fucking North Sea that they are consumed by garfish.

The Observer's Science Editor was talking about this in a podcast yesterday.

His view was that best-case is that the vaccinations get to a useful level by autumn or winter, and since they expect things to re-spike in autumn and winter the vaccination process will probably do away with lockdowns but will not do away with restrictions.

And, since this is going to be vaccine year 1, it will remain to be seen what level of annual vaccination is needed going forward. Still plenty of unknowns.

Probably best not to get your hopes up for a return to normality that is still further away than many of us hope.

Edited January 13, 2021 by TheJTS98

[WhiteRoseKillie]

I was at a couple of Killie home games last season with my Killie supporting mate who had a spare season ticket. I can assure you I heard Ayr referred to as black b*****ds on more than once occasion 

Er, that's not quite the nickname I was thinking of...

[Steven W]

57 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

The Observer's Science Editor was talking about this in a podcast yesterday.

His view was that best-case is that the vaccinations get to a useful level by autumn or winter, and since they expect things to re-spike in autumn and winter the vaccination process will probably do away with lockdowns but will not do away with restrictions.

And, since this is going to be vaccine year 1, it will remain to be seen what level of annual vaccination is needed going forward. Still plenty of unknowns.

Probably best not to get your hopes up for a return to normality that is still further away than many of us hope.

I think you're right (sadly). Restrictions (particularly travel) will be in place for the duration of 2021 I'm sure.  (I predicted this a few months ago in actual fact - hand on heart, I really hope to be proven wrong, but it's not looking good just now)

[Guest TheJTS98]

2 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I think you're right (sadly). Restrictions (particularly travel) will be in place for the duration of 2021 I'm sure.  (I predicted this a few months ago in actual fact - hand on heart, I really hope to be proven wrong, but it's not looking good just now)

Aye. I hope you're wrong too, but I'm working on the assumption that 2021 is going to be pretty similar to 2020. I think making peace with that and working around it is healthier than living in false hope of normality.

So, like 2020, just with a bit less fear and hopefully more optimism as we move towards the end, as much as there will be an 'end'.

[dirty dingus]

7 hours ago, Rob1885 said:

We watched Threads in p7 and as a 10 year old I found it absolutely harrowing had bother sleeping for about a week afterwards. f**k knows why we were even shown, wasn't remotely relevant to what we were being taught at the time and was 20 years old at the time. Aye, some laugh.

Nuclear Armageddon was such a big thing in the early 80's.  Think I was in first year when I read this book. Scared the shit out of me and I've been a firm supporter of CND since.

Edited January 13, 2021 by dirty dingus

[amidst-tundra]

6 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

Aye. I hope you're wrong too, but I'm working on the assumption that 2021 is going to be pretty similar to 2020. I think making peace with that and working around it is healthier than living in false hope of normality.

So, like 2020, just with a bit less fear and hopefully more optimism as we move towards the end, as much as there will be an 'end'.

I'm not sure what will be normal long term. It's frustrating because I love to travel, just started to earn a decent amount of money and then everything got closed down. But I also understand I'm fortunate to still have a job - however restrictions in flights (I work at sea, outside of Europe) means there's no guarantee about crew changes and turnarounds. And I think there will be a significant cascade with businesses collapsing, people out of work and the effect that will have on industries that rely on disposable income. I think the end of the pandemic (which could still be a long way off) will only be the start of recovery in society. I think what was normal will take a long time to return.

[Bairnardo]

Aye. I hope you're wrong too, but I'm working on the assumption that 2021 is going to be pretty similar to 2020. I think making peace with that and working around it is healthier than living in false hope of normality.
So, like 2020, just with a bit less fear and hopefully more optimism as we move towards the end, as much as there will be an 'end'.

Whilst you might be right in that this is how it turns out, it should be acceptable to no one and met with French style, car burning protests, general strikes etc. It wont, but as soon as hospital numbers show positive effects of the vaccine, life should be battering on towards normal.

Holidays etc might be subject to restriction for longer. That might be an inevitability but the idea that folk should accept life in Scotland under restriction indefinitely is shite and should me met with pure disdain and mass rule breaking until the message is received.

[Guest TheJTS98]

3 minutes ago, amidst-tundra said:

I'm not sure what will be normal long term. It's frustrating because I love to travel, just started to earn a decent amount of money and then everything got closed down. But I also understand I'm fortunate to still have a job - however restrictions in flights (I work at sea, outside of Europe) means there's no guarantee about crew changes and turnarounds. And I think there will be a significant cascade with businesses collapsing, people out of work and the effect that will have on industries that rely on disposable income. I think the end of the pandemic (which could still be a long way off) will only be the start of recovery in society. I think what was normal will take a long time to return.

Frustrating for sure, but then frustration is something that we sort of have control over.

I live away from Europe too, which has probably been a very good thing over the last few months. However, a big part of living where I do is the chance to travel a lot and have pretty good holidays. Simply not an option for now, so just have to accept that.

Hard to say what the long-term impact will be on various industries. I'm actually surprised at how relatively little actual meltdown there has been so far. Obviously, some people have taken a right sore one on this, but overall I'd have expected it to be worse by this point.

[amidst-tundra]

1 minute ago, TheJTS98 said:

Frustrating for sure, but then frustration is something that we sort of have control over.

I live away from Europe too, which has probably been a very good thing over the last few months. However, a big part of living where I do is the chance to travel a lot and have pretty good holidays. Simply not an option for now, so just have to accept that.

Hard to say what the long-term impact will be on various industries. I'm actually surprised at how relatively little actual meltdown there has been so far. Obviously, some people have taken a right sore one on this, but overall I'd have expected it to be worse by this point.

I suspect the scale of the meltdown will only become apparent when the government is no longer willing or able to keep certain businesses afloat. I think there is an argument for writing off certain types of debt at the end of this, but I doubt that will happen. 

[Dons_1988]

3 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Whilst you might be right in that this is how it turns out, it should be acceptable to no one and met with French style, car burning protests, general strikes etc. It wont, but as soon as hospital numbers show positive effects of the vaccine, life should be battering on towards normal.

Holidays etc might be subject to restriction for longer. That might be an inevitability but the idea that folk should accept life in Scotland under restriction indefinitely is shite and should me met with pure disdain and mass rule breaking until the message is received.

I think there's a risk of normalising 'lockdowns' in the minds of government for any future crisis.

There should be a clear message that placing heavy restrictions people's lives should be an absolute last resort. I sometimes have to pinch myself as to how normal it's all become and that isn't right.

[Guest TheJTS98]

3 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Whilst you might be right in that this is how it turns out, it should be acceptable to no one and met with French style, car burning protests, general strikes etc. It wont, but as soon as hospital numbers show positive effects of the vaccine, life should be battering on towards normal.

Holidays etc might be subject to restriction for longer. That might be an inevitability but the idea that folk should accept life in Scotland under restriction indefinitely is shite and should me met with pure disdain and mass rule breaking until the message is received.

My instinct is to agree with you, but then I'm also wary of the gathering pace of non-expert opinion that once the numbers slow we just go back to normal. Qualified people I read and hear speaking routinely stress that we don't yet know how long immunity will last, what impact it will have on transmission, and how vaccination rates will impact next autumn/winter's spikes. All seem legitimate points to me.

Also, I've heard stressed a lot recently that there's a danger that now the vaccines are starting in the UK, people will see a fall in numbers in the coming weeks as signs that the vaccines are more effective than they are, since it will be very hard to pull apart the effect of vaccine from the effect of the current lockdown. That's another reason for caution, since we won't initially have good info on what impact vaccination is actually having.

In light of all those unknowns, I can understand why plenty of people who know a lot more about it than me and the other public health experts on this thread are confident that restrictions will remain necessary.

I agree that it's shite, and I'm a big fan of standing in groups round burning bins singing the Internationale, but I think we need to be wary of the snowball effect of non-expert opinion.

[hk blues]

1 hour ago, TheJTS98 said:

It's the same where I am. No mask, no supermarket or shopping centre for you. I can't recall seeing any exceptions.

Does the UK really have more people who have urgent medical need not to wear a mask than other countries?

We're even more strict here - we are required to wear face shields as well as masks.  Compliance is almost 100% on the masks and probably less than 50% on the shields outside of shopping malls or stores.  

I think we both know the answer to your question.  

[Guest TheJTS98]

3 minutes ago, hk blues said:

We're even more strict here - we are required to wear face shields as well as masks.  Compliance is almost 100% on the masks and probably less than 50% on the shields outside of shopping malls or stores.  

I think we both know the answer to your question.  

By face shields do you mean the big astronaut-style plastic things?

You see some of them here. I'm a fan. Very man-about-town.

[Tight minge]

4 minutes ago, amidst-tundra said:

I suspect the scale of the meltdown will only become apparent when the government is no longer willing or able to keep certain businesses afloat. I think there is an argument for writing off certain types of debt at the end of this, but I doubt that will happen. 

Its possible you’ll see more companies failing at the end of this. Companies with cash reserves or government assistance could survive through down sizing/scaling. As things ramp up and cash or support has dwindled companies could  hit serious cash flow issues during ‘recovery’. 

Then we will have a picture of the future and any prolonged recession/austerity as a knock on of all this.

[hk blues]

1 minute ago, TheJTS98 said:

By face shields do you mean the big astronaut-style plastic things?

You see some of them here. I'm a fan. Very man-about-town.

Yep - exactly.  But, wearing glasses/sunglasses is an acceptable substitute for a shield so more than 50% opt for them (including me).

I said compliance is 100% but I just remembered we spent new year at my wife's place which is kind of rural and less than 10% were wearing masks and none shields.  We adopted the same attitude so peer pressure clearly works.  

[Bairnardo]

My instinct is to agree with you, but then I'm also wary of the gathering pace of non-expert opinion that once the numbers slow we just go back to normal. Qualified people I read and hear speaking routinely stress that we don't yet know how long immunity will last, what impact it will have on transmission, and how vaccination rates will impact next autumn/winter's spikes. All seem legitimate points to me.
Also, I've heard stressed a lot recently that there's a danger that now the vaccines are starting in the UK, people will see a fall in numbers in the coming weeks as signs that the vaccines are more effective than they are, since it will be very hard to pull apart the effect of vaccine from the effect of the current lockdown. That's another reason for caution, since we won't initially have good info on what impact vaccination is actually having.
In light of all those unknowns, I can understand why plenty of people who know a lot more about it than me and the other public health experts on this thread are confident that restrictions will remain necessary.
I agree that it's shite, and I'm a big fan of standing in groups round burning bins singing the Internationale, but I think we need to be wary of the snowball effect of non-expert opinion.

Well I can only speak for myself, but the reasons for a declining number of hospitilisations is something that a myriad of experts will have to decipher, certainly in terms of vaccine efficacy. I am sure this is already being heavily monitored.

But I am not prepared to tell my family they cant come into my home due to laws brought in for a state of emergency, whilst scientists have nice wee discussion about what might be the overriding reason behind declining hospital numbers.

Now for the bit that can be perceived as a bit crass. I am not interested in the hand wringing zero covid bullshit. I am not prepared to accept everyone living under restrictions to prevent the spread of a disease for which we have multiple effective vaccines. When this was new, and we had nothing, no vaccine and no treatment.... Aye. Lockdown was the price we had to pay, but as Don's 1988 already said above, these EMERGENCY powers are now being banded about for use as a comfort blanket.

Covid is quite simply a pathogen that exists from which some people have a chance of becoming seriously ill. Against this, these people(and everyone else) will be vaccinated. This is an unprecedented level of protection on top of already unprecedented measures to protect for almost a year now.

Enough is enough. It has already been said on here by other posters, but if signs of vaccine effectiveness are not met with rolling back of restrictions at a pace commensurate with sturgeons "no restrictions a minute longer than neccessary" then I will be taking the rules into my own hands as far as I can. Clearly I cant make a pub or restaurant open, but I wont think twice about having folk into my house et cetera.

Also, I am aware we are looking into the future here and I hope this is all just pessimism, but I am applying the form guide here again.

[Guest TheJTS98]

5 minutes ago, Tight John McVeigh is a tit said:

Its possible you’ll see more companies failing at the end of this. Companies with cash reserves or government assistance could survive through down sizing/scaling. As things ramp up and cash or support has dwindled companies could  hit serious cash flow issues during ‘recovery’. 

Then we will have a picture of the future and any prolonged recession/austerity as a knock on of all this.

And at that stage I look forward to us all becoming amateur economists rather than public health experts.

[Tight minge]

2 minutes ago, TheJTS98 said:

And at that stage I look forward to us all becoming amateur economists rather than public health experts.

All the furlough, poor government decisions and not following simple guidelines will come at a cost at some time. How much and how long will be the only question.

[Guest TheJTS98]

3 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Well I can only speak for myself, but the reasons for a declining number of hospitilisations is something that a myriad of experts will have to decipher, certainly in terms of vaccine efficacy. I am sure this is already being heavily monitored.

Bristol University are doing a study over the coming weeks on comparing covid cases and pneumonia cases to attempt to do that. From the sounds of it, I'm not sure how sturdy the evidence can be because of the crossover, but it seems to be a first step. For all that it's being monitored, people are being clear that this is difficult to do. If qualified experts in the field think that, then I think we on this thread can bin trying to do so.