Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, madwullie said:

Well be surprised then mate. My wife works in an NHS Lanarkshire hospital and can't gets vaccine because her job is lab based and is therefore never on a pc at work. She isn't normally patient facing, but on occasion has to go into icu. She can't get a vaccine because she keeps missing the batches, and people she knows who are not patient facing at all have managed to book and already had vaccines, before many staff who are patient facing and can't. 

Not even sure why I'm bothering here - I have literally no reason to lie about this, and unless she's a secret covid hoaxer, she has no reason to lie to me. Iirc @Inanimate Carbon Rod has family who have experienced similar in GCC.

So there you have it.  

Sounds like the local health boards have been left to make their own arrangements and some have made a total hash of it.

[Wee Bully]

I realise the "debate" around this has become somewhat entrenched. I do recall a SAGE modelling paper from early in the epidemic 1st wave talking about various controls. School closures had something like an R impact of 0.5, but that value came with confidence intervals wider than the Panama canal. Basically, it was them saying "here's an number, don't hold us to it" I assume the current 0.4 number being quoted is from a newer publication.
Since then we have publications like this based on the limited number of schools that reopened in June, down south: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434v2.full.pdf+html
Where basically, the point was that secondary schools were riskier to keep open but neither would, alone, raise R above 1 and that the impact of schools was more keenly felt the higher the community transmission rate was.
We kinda see that borne out in the Scottish data regarding symptomatic cases. Early years and primary education is largely untouched, secondary education we see 2/3rds of schools with at least one case, and 20% of those with more than one case. There are still very few obvious clusters in Scottish schools.
That may reflect the generally lower incidence rates in Scotland. If you look back at November, when Glasgow was at it's then peak, the incidence rate was 312.7 over 7 days/100k population. There were areas in England on the same metric  that were at 680 odds. So the differing proportions of younger symptomatic infections seen on either side of the border might well be predicated on higher community transmission.
So are schools adding to infection rates based proportionally on background community rates or are they driving and accelerating the trends themselves? Given how other relatively closed environments like care homes and university halls racked up scores of cases in a matter of a week or two, once infections got in, wouldn't you see that in school cases as well? 
Question comes down to two things: asymptomatic cases and infectivity. How many kids have it, but don't show it? And how well do kids pass it on, both symptomatic and asymptomatic. Studies I posted links to show that generally there is an aggregate of maybe 28% of all PCR tested cases that were asymptomatic. A couple of studies showed that it was higher in younger age groups. Assuming that type of figure you'd still get 5 to 6 single case schools before the chances of finding an asymptomatic, tested case. 
The question of infectivity is still open. Do kids generally pass it on as well as adults, and within that do asymptomatic kids pass it on at the same rate or worse than symptomatic kids. There is a lot of data, some of it contradictory. It's very difficult to get that information in a controlled manner. Its why modelling is quite difficult, without being able to confidently isolate factors, models are subject to GIGO.
One other question I do have is this: If schools are infection factories where kids, in a closed environment pass it through asymptomatically in large numbers, then after 4 months of being fully open, wouldn't we almost have infected the whole school population to the point where school closures won't make a big difference? At least in the central belt?
It makes sense to keep the kids off longer through winter. Schools will add to case numbers, and the risk to both them and the community will be higher. It makes more sense now if this new strain does have an infectivity in kids equalling that in adults, though they can't possibly be sure of that at this stage. Its a wise precaution. 

I agree with all of this.

Of course transmission takes place in schools - I’ve never argued it doesn’t.

My issue with closing schools is that the impact will be felt most on the poorest members of our society, further entrenching social inequality.

There is risk attached to all activity. The question is which risks are you willing to take for which benefits. The one thing is not about is the tired old trope of “Facebook maws”.

[renton]

5 minutes ago, MP_MFC said:

9 minutes ago, Donathan said:

1,504 new cases. Think super covid has arrived in Scotland

Last week a few days were abnormally low with under 100 cases in Glasgow and Lanarkshire, I think more likely is that is the data lag coming through.

Yeah, 500 cases on Saturday probably a good indicator of test lag.

[Lex]

Don’t often see that old creep ‘sleepy cuddle Livingstone’ on the telly. He must be wanting a job at the SNP, he’d fit right in.

[Honest_Man#1]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Sounds like the local health boards have been left to make their own arrangements and some have made a total hash of it.

Correct.

[Billy Jean King]

The government's own expert scientific advisory group SAGE estimate that schools account for 0.4 of the existing R rate of infection: that is to say, between one-third and half of all activity responsible for ongoing transmission.

Reality indeed!

Good to see you have overnight developed faith in the government's figures - the same SAGE you have rounded on at every opportunity.

 

The current temporary closure makes sense until the facts are established around this new variant but just like every other measure a blanket school closure or move online longer term makes zero sense given there are many more schools with no or virtually no cases at any one time than there are with serious outbreaks. Yes deal with those with closures where needed but a blanket policy makes no sense.

 

[Ron Aldo]

1,504 new cases. Think super covid has arrived in Scotland

Looks like a lag in data.

[Gaz]

34 minutes ago, Cairn Terrier said:

Fair enough, but why is one region so much higher when the proportion of the population that are school pupils will be roughly the same.

Is it because other factors are making more of a difference?

Because there's a higher rate of infection in the community.

[DAFC.]

Went in to work this week the flattest I have felt since when I was first diagnosed with depression.

I know my own self that I can deal with my mental illness much better given the experience I have had previously, however this is seriously testing now. It just feels like existing, not living. I have never seen my auld man as miserable and snappy as he has been, my mum as sad and depressed as she has and even my brother, who isn't a teen yet and is normally happy-go-lucky, even he cannot be bothered with anything, like  watching the football for example.

The three things that keep me from going tonto, in normal circumstances, are absolutely fucked: football; gym; pub. I just seem to work and that's it. 

I agree with the measures we have taken as this mutation of COVID is out of control and the only way you are going to protect the vulnerable with this new variant is the toughest measures. It's just hit an extremely bad time. What else can you do really? Just got to hope this is a further catalyst for the vaccine rollout.

[Billy Jean King]

NS "remains optimistic that it may prove after more analysis that the new strain may not prove to be the public health emergency it currently seems"

Mmmmmm that really does make you wonder and I am as far away from a conspiracy theorist as it can get but statements like that really seem strange to me. It is very unlike her cautious approach to make statements like that !

[Baggio]

In my school;
S1-3 masks on in corridors and communal areas.
S4-6 masks on at all times, except when eating.
All clean their hands, desks and equipment every period. All forward facing with fixed seating plans. No distance requirement except from staff. Windows and doors open in every class and corridor.

Same in the school I work in. At lunch and break kids are outside if it is dry and year groups are kept seperate if indoors. I don't want to jinx it but we have, somewhat astonishingly, almost made it to the end of the year without a single confirmed case amongst staff or pupils. And we are in Lanarkshire. No idea how we have managed it...

[Binos]

3 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

NS "remains optimistic that it may prove after more analysis that the new strain may not prove to be the public health emergency it currently seems"

Mmmmmm that really does make you wonder and I am as far away from a conspiracy theorist as it can get but statements like that really seem strange to me. It is very unlike her cautious approach to make statements like that !

I can't see that it is a conspiracy theory as the effect it's having on us already, travel bans, currency falls

Any benefit from, lessening Christmas gathering, already being outwayed by international reaction

[Binos]

1 minute ago, Baggio said:

1 hour ago, David W said:

In my school;
S1-3 masks on in corridors and communal areas.
S4-6 masks on at all times, except when eating.
All clean their hands, desks and equipment every period. All forward facing with fixed seating plans. No distance requirement except from staff. Windows and doors open in every class and corridor.

Same in the school I work in. At lunch and break kids are outside if it is dry and year groups are kept seperate if indoors. I don't want to jinx it but we have, somewhat astonishingly, almost made it to the end of the year without a single confirmed case amongst staff or pupils. And we are in Lanarkshire. No idea how we have managed it...

My kids are sent outside every day whatever the weather

Never seen mud like it, like a world war 1 battlefield

One phase of number classes isolating few weeks back, nothing else

[TheScarf]

14 minutes ago, DAFC. said:

Went in to work this week the flattest I have felt since when I was first diagnosed with depression.

I know my own self that I can deal with my mental illness much better given the experience I have had previously, however this is seriously testing now. It just feels like existing, not living. I have never seen my auld man as miserable and snappy as he has been, my mum as sad and depressed as she has and even my brother, who isn't a teen yet and is normally happy-go-lucky, even he cannot be bothered with anything, like  watching the football for example.

The three things that keep me from going tonto, in normal circumstances, are absolutely fucked: football; gym; pub. I just seem to work and that's it. 

I agree with the measures we have taken as this mutation of COVID is out of control and the only way you are going to protect the vulnerable with this new variant is the toughest measures. It's just hit an extremely bad time. What else can you do really? Just got to hope this is a further catalyst for the vaccine rollout.

You'd certainly hope that's the case, although it should've been all hands on deck (where possible) since the first vaccination last Tuesday.  One crumb of comfort is that I'm reading the Oxford vaccination should be approved this week.

[welshbairn]

13 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

NS "remains optimistic that it may prove after more analysis that the new strain may not prove to be the public health emergency it currently seems"

Mmmmmm that really does make you wonder and I am as far away from a conspiracy theorist as it can get but statements like that really seem strange to me. It is very unlike her cautious approach to make statements like that !

There's an enough gloom and doom messaging at the moment without ignoring that the new variant may not be as health damaging as the old one, and there's no evidence so far that it's any worse.

[Bairnardo]

48 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

I can’t believe people aren’t getting this incredibly simple concept. I think some have got so wound up by people talking about schools that they think that anybody mentioning schools thinks they are the only source of transmission.

I assume the post you quotes from Marshmallo was in response to my question, which I think was a fair one. Certainly not "wound up". 

My question is basically, if schools are acting as a bypass around restrictions, and that happens in every tier, how could the move to tier 4 to tier 3 yield such quick results in the case of somewhere like Glasgow. 

If there is high prevalence and a huge, gaping hole in your restrictions, I fond it hard to belive they would work. 

The same things that closed in the move from 3 to 4 have been roundly dismissed as being big drivers of infection by a lot of folk on here. It cant be both. 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, MixuFruit said:

I dunno what the aim is of the folk continually pushing the selfish parents just want the kids oot the hoose narrative, as if this is going to be the overriding motivation behind every kid that is in a classroom, when every study I've read that looks into why covid controls fail points to a lack of financial support, particularly for parents.

Aye, because the UsForThem lobby group is clearly a movement of parents on breadline poverty who just can't afford  the extra burden.

[ayrmad]

48 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Sounds like the local health boards have been left to make their own arrangements and some have made a total hash of it.

I'm keeping in with those dishing it out, will be surprised if I don't jump the queue a wee bit. 

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, Michael W said:

If the prevalence of covid in an area is low, the chances of it spreading around a school are also lower. 

You have a two areas: one with a rate of 120 per 100k, and another with 30 per 100k. Both schools have 1000 pupils. Which school is riskier? 

Show your working.

[TheScarf]

2 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

I don't know who that is

Jose Mourinho.