Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Mallo_Madrid]

7 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

Whats the P&B best predictions for next year and beyond?  Personally I think the way we are going just now a lot of next year will be a bogey including football in the summer, other countries with better leadership might get a closer level of normality .  going to the pub could become a bit of a farce like ordering a breakfast you don't want at one of those early serve pubs so you can have a pint

The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will be a game changer when it is regulated and rolled out. Its the breaking news I'm certainly waiting for above all others.

Get that fired into folks via Nerf Guns at on a massive scale of and we can start easing these awful restrictions.

[renton]

11 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Nad.him Zahawi has tweeted the numbers of vaccinations so far.

England - 108,000

Wales - 7,897

Northern Ireland - 4,000

Scotland - 18,000.

ETA, why is d-h-i-m starred out?

How many actual doses is there in the UK? I know we have 4 million reserved but I guess we don't actually have that many. Is Pfizer currently cranking doses out now?

[ICTChris]

1 minute ago, renton said:

How many actual doses is there in the UK? I know we have 4 million reserved but I guess we don't actually have that many. Is Pfizer currently cranking doses out now?

500.  We've been injecting people with tonic water, banking on the placebo effect.

[Big Fifer]

8 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

I would hope for a well coordinated vaccine program which would allow some level of normality by spring or summer at the latest.

I think the devolved nations will take different approaches and will each make a c**t of it in different ways. For example, England don't actually bother tracking how many people have been vaccinated and are therefore unable to make an informed decision on whether restrictions can be lifted. In Scotland I think we'll fare better but I still fear we'll go with an overly cautious approach in terms of restrictions. Even at the moment there are a few areas which really should be in tier 0 but aren't.

I would also hope that less emphasis is put on cases and more focus is given to how many people have been vaccinated and how many people are admitted to hospital/ICU. It's obviously still early days but once the vulnerable have been vaccinated then pressure on the NHS should start to ease. There might still be 1000+ people a day getting the virus but if none of those people are being admitted to hospital there really should be no need for restrictions beyond making people self-isolate.

This, for me, is the important part. The overly cautious Scottish government need to realise, pretty quickly, that the conversation we've had for the past 9 months is not the same conversation as we have been having now. We have a vaccine, get a road map out for how we return to normality pronto. "Keeping cases below X" to be in Tier 1, 2, 3 etc needs to be binned by March, frankly. 

[throbber]

1 hour ago, Tynierose said:

They're probably celebrating wildly tbh.

They still haven’t met their grandson yet so I highly doubt that.

[renton]

1 minute ago, ICTChris said:

500.  We've been injecting people with tonic water, banking on the placebo effect.

If good vibes is what it takes to beat the virus, then we are all fucked.

[Paco]

How many actual doses is there in the UK? I know we have 4 million reserved but I guess we don't actually have that many. Is Pfizer currently cranking doses out now?

800,000 from the initial delivery. More are ‘expected’ this week but I think they’re being deliberately vague about how many and when.

Pfizer essentially lied about their capacity for delivering the vaccine. We were supposed to have 10 million in the UK by the end of the year but will presumably be lucky to have two. They halved their delivery schedule to the US too.

There should still be plenty of doses available though. Scotland, if the numbers quoted this morning are right, have used about half of their supply. England about a quarter.

[vikingTON]

14 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

ETA, why is d-h-i-m starred out?

Rhyming couplet with a word that Celtic fans got banned from the site, as part of an Old Firm tit-for-tat since the f-bomb and Atilla references got banned for being 'equally offensive'. With NilbyMouth's laughable interpretations holding the ring for this tragic contest.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

9 minutes ago, Mallo_Madrid said:

The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will be a game changer when it is regulated and rolled out. Its the breaking news I'm certainly waiting for above all others.

Get that fired into folks via Nerf Guns at on a massive scale of and we can start easing these awful restrictions.

That's not the rolls Royce one tho is it?  what happened to the talk of the J&J vaccine actualy stopping you from catching it and spreading it,  if there is a vaccine that lets you go round the covid ward kissing all the patients but still stops you catching it then that needs to have the highest priority , life has more or less ground to a halt and needs to get moving again before we enter a fucking 20 year great depression

[renton]

4 minutes ago, Paco said:

800,000 from the initial delivery. More are ‘expected’ this week but I think they’re being deliberately vague about how many and when.

Pfizer essentially lied about their capacity for delivering the vaccine. We were supposed to have 10 million in the UK by the end of the year but will presumably be lucky to have two. They halved their delivery schedule to the US too.

There should still be plenty of doses available though. Scotland, if the numbers quoted this morning are right, have used about half of their supply. England about a quarter.

Puts more onus on getting the AZ one rolled out...

[throbber]

6 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

Is that the child you invented...

This is another pretty awful attempt at a put down from you but pretty much what we’ve come to expect in recent times. Truly the Rudy Giuliani of the forum.

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

That's not the rolls Royce one tho is it?  what happened to the talk of the J&J vaccine actualy stopping you from catching it and spreading it,  if there is a vaccine that lets you go round the covid ward kissing all the patients but still stops you catching it then that needs to have the highest priority , life has more or less ground to a halt and needs to get moving again before we enter a fucking 20 year great depression

J&J one supposed to be ready in February. It's possible that all or none of the various vaccines might prevent transmission, too early to tell.

Edited December 16, 2020 by welshbairn

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, Big Fifer said:

This, for me, is the important part. The overly cautious Scottish government need to realise, pretty quickly, that the conversation we've had for the past 9 months is not the same conversation as we have been having now. We have a vaccine, get a road map out for how we return to normality pronto. "Keeping cases below X" to be in Tier 1, 2, 3 etc needs to be binned by March, frankly. 

I agree, but they are also saying this:

They seem to be missing the point that providing the vaccine reduces the chance of serious illness by around 90% it doesn't really matter whether or not it reduces transmission, or by how much.

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

The editor from The Lancet was on Sky News this morning saying that the Oxford/Astra vaccine approval is likely within the next few weeks.

January and February are probably going to be bleak once the disaster of relaxing restrictions for Christmas realises itself.

I'd be more optimistic of restrictions easing sooner if it wasn't that useless c**t Hancock in charge of the vaccine rollout.

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, throbber said:

This is another pretty awful attempt at a put down from you but pretty much what we’ve come to expect in recent times. Truly the Rudy Giuliani of the forum.

It's ok, he's vaccinated.

 

 

[renton]

So, back of fag packet calculation: assume you need to give a vaccine to 60% of the adult (over 16) population of Scotland to get to your basic herd immunity level. Assume a 90% success rate for the vaccine, then imagine you want that rolled out by the end of March.

I think that means you need to be doing about 187k vaccinations/week.

[Aubrey Maturin]

14 minutes ago, throbber said:

This is another pretty awful attempt at a put down from you but pretty much what we’ve come to expect in recent times. Truly the Rudy Giuliani of the forum.

[Blootoon87]

So, back of fag packet calculation: assume you need to give a vaccine to 60% of the adult (over 16) population of Scotland to get to your basic herd immunity level. Assume a 90% success rate for the vaccine, then imagine you want that rolled out by the end of March.
I think that means you need to be doing about 187k vaccinations/week.

I'd hope that after vaccinating 10-20% of the population you could start easing restrictions as they would be the most vulnerable people.

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Blootoon87 said:

 

 

I'd hope that after vaccinating 10-20% of the population you could start easing restrictions as they would be the most vulnerable people.

 

Yeah, you'd hope so though at 20% your still looking at 62k/week, more if you assume a lower success rate we might expect from the AZ guy.

[RiG]

24 minutes ago, renton said:

So, back of fag packet calculation: assume you need to give a vaccine to 60% of the adult (over 16) population of Scotland to get to your basic herd immunity level. Assume a 90% success rate for the vaccine, then imagine you want that rolled out by the end of March.

I think that means you need to be doing about 187k vaccinations/week.

From one paper I had read you need around 70% of the population needs to attain immunity for herd immunity.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820945282

So maybe closer to (or more than) 200,000 vaccinations a week?

Edited December 16, 2020 by RiG