Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Bonksy+HisChristianParade]

 

[Detournement]

14 minutes ago, renton said:

I think the salient lesson is that shutting things down early, and to a greater degree is the best route to having more open for longer. If tier 3 means you can't have hospitality open, and you also can't get case loads down far enough to get it open then why bother? 

So I can get swole. 

Wales have proven that repeated shut downs are a bad idea. 

[renton]

8 minutes ago, Detournement said:

So I can get swole. 

Wales have proven that repeated shut downs are a bad 

I'd say Wales are the perfect example of half measures. Locked down far later, and far higher up the prevelance scale, and then only locked down for a couple of weeks. When they came out their case rates were still worse than our peak loads up here. 

[101]

36 minutes ago, mizfit said:

 

Charlie isn’t the most intelligent member of the royal family. He must’ve surely known after his actions in March some of the Scottish population wouldn’t want to see him anytime soon.

 

Clearly. Sounds like whatever he had planned for Christmas would be breaching the rules anyway almost like they are taunting us plebs.

[LongTimeLurker]

9 minutes ago, Detournement said:

So I can get swole. 

Wales have proven that repeated shut downs are a bad idea. 

The Swedish approach of finding a new normal that is sustainable and can be explained with a consistent set of public health advise messaging was the better way to go in strategy terms, although you can definitely find fault with some of what Sweden did at the tactical level especially with care homes. Wales have shown why trying to stop an epidemic wave from unfolding in its tracks with a set of policies that cannot be sustained is futile and potentially counter-productive.

[The Holiday Song]

Bars, cafes and restaurants been closed in the Netherlands for two months (shops and schools still open)... barely made a difference and full lockdown now on the cards (essential shops only open).

[renton]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/48-hours-in-september-when-ministers-and-scientists-split-over-covid-lockdown-vg5xbpsfx

... on why there was no lockdown in England in September.

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, renton said:

 

The best course would seem to be to chuck everything in the central belt into tier 4 now, until January. Drive case loads down everywhere until you can open up in tier 1. Give some breathing space to have more open, longer while the vaccination program takes hold. Trying to ease down the case load in a graduated fashion isn't going to work. 

^^^ Devi Sridhar found

Yeah hold on while I don't leave my local authority area for another seven weeks without being subject to a fine because of your concern about ridiculously low infection rates. 

Edited December 14, 2020 by vikingTON

[MP_MFC]

London getting punted into tier 3 down south.

[renton]

2 minutes ago, virginton said:

^^^ Devi Sridhar found

Yeah hold on while I don't leave my local authority area for another seven weeks without being subject to a fine because of your concern about ridiculously low infection rates. 

It's not my "concern" about infection rates to be honest. Simply looking at it from the viewpoint of realistic policy outcomes, and I didn't mean that the severe restrictions should last that full period.

There is a vaccine on its way. In the meantime we have the options of either managing the caseloads, or letting it run wild.

If the decision you come to is to manage the caseload then you have two options. Restrictions or mass testing. 

Mass testing would be my favoured option. It's unlikely to be able to get all cases and therefore will still require *some* restrictions, but could remove more asymptomatic cases. How likely are we though to see a mature, mass testing programme in early January?

So what about restrictions? Well, we can stick with the current graded tiers or go with a more restrictive, blanket restriction. In my opinion, you are more likely to get more places to a lower  level and therefore more open, if you use a more severe restriction now, than if we persist with the current tier system. Inevitably cases will rise again but an outcome that leaves less restrictions in the longer term while vaccinations take place is surely more optimal than one where places get stuck in a half closed state for the duration?

Other option is to abandon restrictions as we currently understand them. If we do that now we will surely run the risk of breaking the health service and running higher mortality... unless the models presented to government are wrong.

Maybe there is a version like the Swedish approach that would work for us over that period. Chuck the older school kids into blended learning, uni students into remote learning, curfew on hospitality but let it open. Get outdoor events like football back with 25-50% capacity. I still think though if you wanted to go down that route you'd want to do it from a lower base threshold than we are currently at, and getting it even a bit lower still feels like it'd need some kind of restrictive intervention first.

[Michael W]

11 minutes ago, MP_MFC said:

London getting punted into tier 3 down south.

And in just a few days time after that, the restrictions are suspended for Christmas! Great work to all concerned.

I think I'm going to get punted into T3 as well, unfortunately - numbers justify it. Talk also of T3 becoming harsher because it hasn't worked in Kent. 

[sparky88]

1 hour ago, Michael W said:

And in just a few days time after that, the restrictions are suspended for Christmas! Great work to all concerned.

I think I'm going to get punted into T3 as well, unfortunately - numbers justify it. Talk also of T3 becoming harsher because it hasn't worked in Kent. 

Hopefully another new tier system will sort it.

[Wee Willie]

3 hours ago, dirty dingus said:

The same charile covid that transported it to the highlands when advised not to travel. he can get himself too f**k.

Dinnae forget it was the Chief Medical Officer of the time, Catherine Calderwood who said on TV that there were clear medical reasons why Charlie, his wife and (presumably) his entourage were tested for the Covid. The criteria was that you had to show severe symptoms of the virus and to be admitted to hospital. None of that occurred with that effing lot. I'll be watching the new years honours list with interest.

2 hours ago, 101 said:

Clearly. Sounds like whatever he had planned for Christmas would be breaching the rules anyway almost like they are taunting us plebs.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

Apologies for triple posting! what you're saying makes sense but in that case the entire national tier system is redundant,  you have 5 tiers with pre set criteria, but very few places actually have the tier which their criteria says they should, and even if they do they are not allowed the full range of liberties which their tier says they should have. 

Area X qualifies for tier one, but you can't have that because it's a densly populated area close to other densly populated areas and we can't enforce any of the rules so no. 

area Y should really be in a higher tier but it's the only large ish town in a mostly rural area with no hotspots for many miles so as you were.

 

In other words, we realised we'd made a c**t of the tier system before we even rolled it out and are now trying to backpeddle as subtly as possible to save face.  

Much the same as England, where London is miles worse than the rest of the country but is in a lower tier due to the "Economic impact".

[superbigal]

On 07/12/2020 at 14:56, superbigal said:

 

Good Afternoon. 7 Days on from my last review it is worth a complete council update.   The latest figures encompass the final 7 days of the Tier 4 etc restrictions.

Overall cases per 100K  98.5 for period 7 days up to 4th December.  Now for 7 days 5th December to 11the December they are 110.0 . That is a increase overall of 11.67% in a period of 7 days,  all of which were in higher restrictions.   

So who is to blame.  Let us take a look.  I will class the councils in the Tiers they were in up to 11th December.

I believe Tier 4 could be back again.

East Ayrshire  Tier 4   127.0 to 163.1    Increase 28.42%%    Dreadful performance for full restrictions.  How can Tier 3 possibly work now.

East Dunbartonshire  Tier 4   104.0 to 97.6    Decrease 6.15%   Hope Tier 3 will not show an increase in cases again.  Marginal.

East Renfrewshire  Tier4  137.1 to 130.8  Decrease 4.95%     Same comments as East Dunb

Glasgow City  Tier 4   150.2 to 148.2   Decrease 1.33%   Very small drop for last week of tier 4.  Again worry if Tier 3 will reverse trend.

North Lanarkshire  Tier 4  147.9 to 137.7   Decrease  6.89%   Again hopefully Tier 3 will not reverse trend.

Renfrewshire  Tier 4  158.0 to 131.2    Decrease  16.96%    Good work 

South Ayrshire  Tier 4   94.1 to 111.0   Increase 17.95%  Poor performance for full restrictions.  How can Tier 3 possibly work now.

South Lanarkshire  Tier 4  123.5 to 134.8  Increase 9.14%   Poor performance for full restrictions.  How can Tier 3 possibly work now.

Stirling Tier 4  80.7 to 92.3   Increase 14.37       Another with an increase while in Tier 4 albeit these numbers are still not too bad.

West Dunbartonshire  Tier 4   76.5 to 81.0  Increase 5.88%  Another with an increase while in Tier 4 albeit these numbers are still not too bad.

West Lothian   Tier 4  108.7 to 114.1   Increase 4.96%   Another with an increase while in Tier 4 albeit these numbers are still not too bad.

Angus Tier 3   56.8 to 66.3   Increase 16.72%    Was not the best week while still in Tier 3.  Close eye over next few days with tier 2 figures.

City Of Edinburgh  Tier 3  68.4 to 100.4  Increase 46.78%     absolutely clear why they had no reason to moan now at no promotion.  

Clackmannanshire  Tier 3    211.5 to 188.2  Decrease  11.01 %    This council should due to population be coming down quicker.  Sauchie still an epicentre.

Dundee City  Tier 3   107.8 to 133.9   Increase 24.21%  Dundee shooting itself in the foot and reversing all previous gains.

Falkirk   Tier 3     66.5 to 99.4  Increase 49.47%    Falkirk's promotion could be a short lived experience.  Dunipace alone at nearly 600 !!!! cases per 100K

Fife Tier 3   103.3 to 135.5 Increase 31.17%   Much like Dundee.  How the feck 2 care homes can have over 100 cases between them is anyones guess.  Absolute disgrace.

Inverclyde  Tier 3   54.0 to 60.4   Increase 11.85%    Should hold it's promotion for now.

Midlothian  Tier 3   86.5 to 147.1   Increase 70.00%   Since their promotion was denied what has gone wrong.  Is it all mutants ?

Perth & Kinross Tier 3    92.8 to 98.1 Increase 5.71%  Stable in Tier 3

North Ayrshire  Tier 3  142.5 to 172.9  Increase 21.33%    Another Ayrshire council currently having a shocker. 

Aberdeen City Tier 2   74.3 to 122.0    Increase 64.19%     Guaranteed relegation tomorrow to tier 3

Aberdeenshire Tier 2    80.4 to 84.2    Increase 4.72 %    Touch and go now it's city neighbour is for the chop

Argyll & Bute  Tier 2    165.4 to 37.3   Decrease 77.38%   Did we kill all the sailors ?

Dumfries & Galloway  Tier 2   22.8 to 23.5  Increase 3.07%    Continue to enjoy your new found freedom in Tier 1

East Lothian   Tier 2  67.2 to 126.1   Increase 87.64%   Got promoted take the piss and now for the chop tomorrow

Scottish Borders  Tier 2  34.6 to 75.3  Increase 117.63%  Oh dear I think they got Tier 1 last week.  Relegation imminent.

Highland  Tier 1    10.6 to 19.5 Increase 83.96%   Still very small numbers so okay

Moray   Tier 1  11.5 to 20.9  Increase 81.73%    Same comments as Highlands

Na h-Eileanan Siar  Tier 1   15.0 to 15.0 No change       get them in the holy grail

Orkney Tier 1   4.5 to 0.0   No  Cases get them in Tier 0

Shetlands Tier 1  4.4 to 0.0  No  Cases get them in Tier 0

Edited December 14, 2020 by superbigal

[The Moonster]

5 hours ago, renton said:

The best course would seem to be to chuck everything in the central belt into tier 4 now, until January. Drive case loads down everywhere until you can open up in tier 1. Give some breathing space to have more open, longer while the vaccination program takes hold. Trying to ease down the case load in a graduated fashion isn't going to work. 

I would have a full blown mental breakdown if this was announced. 

[effeffsee_the2nd]

30 minutes ago, superbigal said:

 

Falkirk   Tier 3     66.5 to 99.4  Increase 49.47%    Falkirk's promotion could be a short lived experience.

 

 

 

FUCKIN!      BOOO!

[Guest]

All through this we've been bombarded with conflicting information and I'd reckon the percentage of the population who watch / listen to the daily updates are pretty low, however contrast this with the marketing that we're bombarded with from the hospitality, aviation and travel sector and it's no wonder that people are confused and cases continue to rise.

NS may request that we "stay in unless absolutely necessary" and "don't mix with other areas", "don't go abroad" etc, however back in the real world people are receiving daily E-mails from Restaurant chains about "eat out to help out in December" (which of course is a made up take off from previous UK Gov advice but made to sound as if it's part of the same scheme), they're receiving marketing from Airlines and travel companies about "Christmas abroad is back on" etc, which is of course encouraging people to do the opposite of the Government "advice".

So, if the government are serious about reducing the virus then they should be stopping these incessant marketing measures but of course this is where they're attempting to balance the economy or keep everyone happy as it were, unfortunately neither seems to be happening.

Don't get me wrong, I don't blame the hospitality / tourism industry for bending the rules in an attempt to safeguard their industries, however if the Government seriously doesn't want us to do these things, then it should be closed down at source imho.

[jamamafegan]

 

[superbigal]

Scotgov have also changed their colour coding and numbers that qualify on the map. You now have 0 = suppressed. 1 to 49, 50 to 99, 100 to 199, 200-399 and the grim dark purple [emoji171] 400+ cases per 100k in 7 days.

Much easier to identify the brutal hotspots