Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Arch Stanton]

8 hours ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

You're a better man than me, then. I wish him, and indeed every Tory, the best that Karma has to offer.

To paraphrase Frankie Boyle "The Tory party have contingency plans in place in case he doesn't pull through. I've also made contingency plans. I've bought fireworks."

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

47 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Are you a Christian?

Do you normally celebrate Christmas?

Will you and your family miss celebrating it if you can’t?

No im an atheist. 
I respect my family’s wishes and partake in their customary annual celebration of the birth of a child 2020 years ago in a barn in the middle east born to a ‘virgin’ teenage mother most years but even my christian family members think its mental. However this year im working. Christmas is just Friday. 
No we wont miss celebrating it. 
 

This idea that many christian fundamentalists and facebook concerned types etc have that its worth locking down further, putting people out of jobs probably long term to allow a free for all on Christmas day that will quite likely put further strain on the NHS (who are having to plan for a ‘third wave’ now because of the talk of relaxing rules for Christmas) and adding to the fact a tier 4 lockdown will marginalise the most vulnerable in society even further. The whole idea doesnt seem very fucking christian to me? But hey its alright all the goblins and arseholes will be able to have unrestricted house parties and eat turkey with their mother in law. 

Edited November 16, 2020 by Inanimate Carbon Rod

[harry94]

36 minutes ago, superbigal said:

A week on let's have a look at progress.

Overall cases per 100K were 154 when I did this post last Tuesday.   Figures were up to 7th November.

6 Days later and figures to 13th November show a decrease to 141.5 or  8.12%   Suggest R is now between 0.95 & 1.00

I now have the last 14 days of Data for each Council.

Start with the tier 3 Councils and move down to Tier 1    My comments in brackets.  Bold if significant

City Of Edinburgh  Tier 3  86.3 to 86.9 Increase 0.69%   (Reversed slight downward trend to overall increase 0.69%. So Tier 3 is Correct)

Clackmannanshire  Tier 3   131.9 to 99.0  Decrease 24.94% (actually an increase in cases since last week..   Tier 3 for now.)

Dundee City  Tier 3   176.8 to 138.0   Decrease 21.95%  (Same comments as Clack an increase in last week Stay tier 3)

East Ayrshire  Tier 3   220.5 to 172.1    Decrease  21.95%   (A tiny further decrease since last weeks good work.  Unlucky if they now get punted to Tier 4)

East Dunbartonshire  Tier 3   222.8 to 224.6    Increase 0.48%    (Another small rise So Tier 3 no effect must enter Tier 4)

East Lothian   Tier 3   97.1 to 60.7   Decrease 37.48%    (Sustained decreases and really should get promoted to Tier 2)

East Renfrewshire  Tier 3   226.1 to 197.8  Decrease 12.51%   I   (After last weeks scathing comments a good week. Unlucky to have your best week and then get punted into tier 4)

Falkirk   Tier 3    118.7 to 88.3  Decrease 25.61%    (Actually a bad week in Falkirk So Tier 3 has to stay)

Glasgow City  Tier 3   299.5 to 275.6   Decrease 7.97%  (1st time in weeks they are actually behaving but clearly will still get punted to Tier 4)

Inverclyde  Tier 3   72.0 to 101.5    Increase 40.97%  (Reversed much of last weeks huge rises so will be mightily unfortunate to leave tier 3)

Midlothian  Tier 3  97.3 to 58.4   Decrease  39.97%    ( These guys are really following the rules and should get promotion soon to Tier 2 )

North Ayrshire  Tier 3  178.1 to 139.5   Decrease 21.67%   (Some people on West side of country are behaving.  Continuing to drop.  Tier 4 would be a shocker and have little justification.) 

North Lanarkshire  Tier 3  280 to 237.6   Decrease  15.14%    (1st time in weeks they are actually behaving but clearly will still get punted to Tier 4)

Renfrewshire  Tier 3  231.2 to 241.8   Increase 4.58%   (Again their 1st actual decent week but too little too late.  Tier 4 is a must)

South Ayrshire  Tier 3  151.9 to 159.0  Increase 4.67%    (Actually also a very good week but may be too late Could cling on to Tier 3)

South Lanarkshire  Tier 3 317.6 to 229.3  Decrease  27.80%   (A very good fortnight. Still very high number though. Tier 4 tomorrow will still take a bit of explaining)

Stirling Tier 3   77.5 to 167.7   Increase  116.39%  (What is going on in Stirling ?  Hurtling towards obvious Tier 4 out of nowhere!!)

West Dunbartonshire  Tier 3  208 to 181.0  decrease 12.98%%    (Another with a good week so why tier 4 tomorrow would need explained)

West Lothian   Tier 3  181.3 to 158.4  Decrease 12.63%   (Decent week but clearly staying Tier 3)

Fife Tier 2 moved to Tier 3   81.9  to 143   Increase 74.60%   (Fife really needs to screw the nut or it could end up in Tier 4)

Perth & Kinross Tier 2 moved to Tier 3  75.0 to 88.8  Increase 18.40%   (Tier 3 is having an effect decent week)

Angus Tier 2 moved to Tier 3   51.6 to 84.3   Increase 63.37%    (Tier 3 had an impact but not turned the tide yet)

Aberdeen City Tier 2,  44.6 to 55.5    Increase 24.43%      (Bad week and more chance of sliding to tier 3 than 1. But then again "They can Boogie")

Aberdeenshire Tier 2   29.5 to 53.2   Increase 80.33 %   (Similar to the city a real bad week and heading to wrong tier)

Argyll & Bute  Tier 2    57.1 to 31.4   Decrease 45.00%    (Another good week and surely go Tier 1)

Dumfries & Galloway  Tier 2  62.5 to 51.1  Decrease 18.24%     (Good week another similar needed for Tier 1)

Borders  Tier 2  39.8 to 61.5  Increase 54.52%  (moaned they were in tier 2  but now rightly so)

Highland  Tier 1   19.9 to 20.4 Increase 2.51%  (No change Tier 1)

Moray   Tier 1   14.6 to 32.4  Increase 121.92%  (Still tiny number but may be pushed to tier 2 if continues)

Na h-Eileanan Siar  Tier 1   3.7 to 22.5     (Basically was 1 case and now 6   Tier 1 no problem)

Orkney Tier 1   9.0 to 4.5    (Basically was 2 cases and now 1.  Get them in Tier 0)

Shetlands Tier 1   8.7 to 0.0  (Was 2 cases and now 0 cases.  Get them in Tier 0)

 

Cases per 100k is a difficult method to compare against regionally, helpful but I don't really think it tells us much of a story at the level and with the amount of data we're looking at and all the caveats involved, a high not could be indicative of a well tracked and understood cluster to low risk demographics whilst something uglier is lurking elsewhere.

You've highlighted the drop in South Lanarkshire but their positivity rate was 15% in the last drop which was the highest in Scotland and their 7 day rolling no is just under 10%, that could suggest much higher transmissibility and under reporting of cases. I tend to sense it from the 7 day rolling figure tbh.

Nationally, we're a bit down on what the hospital bed and icu projections were at the start of lockdown. The margin to total capacity in places is still too close to comfort and has obviously been a problem in some regions but there's a bit of cause for optimism that transmission has generally been stable since the start of October.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

1 hour ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

It's absolutely farcical - there's no concerted campaign to open the churches and chapels, or even demands to be able to attend carol concerts. Just, "let us go shopping and get pissed!" What Christmas means now is apparently spending enough to get you into sufficient debt that you daren't upset your employer for the next year as you try to pay down your credit cards.

I fucking hate people.

Just so they can post pictures of all their weans christmas presents on facebook to show how good a parent they are. I try and give my kid as much of the good things in life as possible, but anyone who needs to do the whole ‘look at how many presents i get my kids that shows im a better parent than you’ is actually a shite parent who cares more about kudos from strangers than being s parent. 

[Detournement]

Christmas day is class. You see loads of your family, weans love it, you can start drinking the second you wake up and eat three times what you normally would. 

It's heehaw to do with Christianity for most people. 

[Granny Danger]

28 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

No im an atheist. 
I respect my family’s wishes and partake in their customary annual celebration of the birth of a child 2020 years ago in a barn in the middle east born to a ‘virgin’ teenage mother most years but even my christian family members think its mental. However this year im working. Christmas is just Friday. 
No we wont miss celebrating it. 
 

This idea that many christian fundamentalists and facebook concerned types etc have that its worth locking down further, putting people out of jobs probably long term to allow a free for all on Christmas day that will quite likely put further strain on the NHS (who are having to plan for a ‘third wave’ now because of the talk of relaxing rules for Christmas) and adding to the fact a tier 4 lockdown will marginalise the most vulnerable in society even further. The whole idea doesnt seem very fucking christian to me? But hey its alright all the goblins and arseholes will be able to have unrestricted house parties and eat turkey with their mother in law. 

Maybe you overthink things.  I manage to celebrate Christmas without even thinking about the religious aspects.  I find it very enjoyable.

 

[Duszek]

My grim family story to add to the catalogue.

My father-in-law, who lives near Antwerp and who's been ill with cancer for a few years, fell ill with breathing difficulties two days ago and was whisked into hospital. The prognosis was gloomy - they said he only had a few days to live. 

 

The added boot to the baws is that despite testing negative twice for COVID, the hospital is insisting on putting him in the COVID ward because he has COVID-like symptoms (breathing difficulties, perhaps not uncommon when you have lung cancer...). And after he gets shunted into the COVID ward tomorrow there will be no way for his children (his son is on his way from Madrid) to see him. And no funerals allowed for people who die in Belgian COVID wards...

 

I generally subscribe to the 'we've never had it so good' school of thought, but 2020 has undoubtedly been a c**t of a year.

 

 

[Detournement]

3 hours ago, Marshmallo said:

This "To save Christmas!" stuff like we are in a Pixar film is wild. Even if it works, why are we signing up for weeks of restrictions with businesses being decimated to save a single day which just happens to have a different name than others?

It's not about Christmas it's the same shit as we had in May/June. 

[Marshmallo]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

It's not about Christmas it's the same shit as we had in May/June. 

Sturgeon said today her priority is giving people less restrictions on Christmas day

Edited November 16, 2020 by Marshmallo

[Detournement]

Just now, Marshmallo said:

Sturgeon said today her priority is giving people less restrictions on Christmas day

Her priority is deflecting. 

[Marshmallo]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

Her priority is deflecting. 

I don't necessarily disagree, and the post you quoted was me picking holes in the ludicrous justification about "saving Christmas"

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Sturgeon said today her priority is giving people less restrictions on Christmas day

She’s an absolute bástard.

[D.A.F.C]

Hancock calling professor van tam PVT.
Waaaft

[Ron Aldo]

She’s an absolute bástard.

She is if shes potentially sacrificing thousands of jobs for the sake of 1 day which comes round every year.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

2 hours ago, invergowrie arab said:

Save Black Friday 

Bit racist m8. 
 

#allfridaysmatter

[Granny Danger]

Just now, Ron Aldo said:

20 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

She’s an absolute bástard.

She is if shes potentially sacrificing thousands of jobs for the sake of 1 day which comes round every year.

She’s evil incarnate, no doubt about it.  In the good old days she would have been burnt at the stake.

 

[AyrExile]

31 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Sturgeon said today her priority is giving people less restrictions on Christmas day

Likewise at the weekend Leitch was telling football fans to behave as access to stadiums next June depends on this. If you find the right emotional hook you may get less resistance when pushing previously failed methods   

[Marshmallo]

7 minutes ago, AyrExile said:

Likewise at the weekend Leitch was telling football fans to behave as access to stadiums next June depends on this. If you find the right emotional hook you may get less resistance when pushing previously failed methods   

I hope you're right. I find it patronising in the extreme personally, along the lines of "if you don't do your homework you won't get golden time on Friday!"

[Detournement]

9 minutes ago, AyrExile said:

Likewise at the weekend Leitch was telling football fans to behave as access to stadiums next June depends on this. If you find the right emotional hook you may get less resistance when pushing previously failed methods   

It's just the shite that parents say to 13 year olds transformed into government PR.

Every decision is because the public have misbehaved or have to be disciplined for their long term benefit. We don't leave the Scottish Government any choice.....  

Edited November 16, 2020 by Detournement

[Bairnardo]

I see the clammy used car salesman has announced an order placed for 5 million doses of the Moderna vaccine to be delivered in spring. Seems like the only bottleneck now is the administering of the vaccines.... The one thing re vaccines firmly in the governments control.

Look forward to a catastrophic failure then