Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[itzdrk]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

 

I can see this being used to justify a nationwide lockdown up here.

 

Nah, makes it easier to move places to tier 4 though!

[Thereisalight..]

I really don’t know what the end game is in all this. Obviously politicians/medical experts are pinning their hopes on a vaccine arriving soon but what if it’s at least a year away? Do we lockdown every few months as soon as numbers rise again? With schools remaining open this time I really can’t see positive cases coming down to the levels that we had in the summer that lead to the  “zero covid” utopia.

[Binos]

3 hours ago, Thereisalight.. said:

80%?

Hmm, thought so

Seems could be wrong

[madwullie]

26 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

You can, if you test everyone in hospital weekly, and count each positive PCR as an admission.

Which is what we do.

Now, whether that was the initial intention is not clear, nor is what the percentage of 'admissions' are made up from people already in hospital is.

Do we count each positive test as an admission or admit patients who are positive that are in need of hospital treatment. 

[ICTChris]

Wasn't it over 2 before the first lockdown?

Scotland is 1.2 but northern Ireland is 0.9 but had the highest rates in the UK??

According to the Travelling Tabby at the end of February, start of March it was around 5.

[madwullie]

5 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

I really don’t know what the end game is in all this. Obviously politicians/medical experts are pinning their hopes on a vaccine arriving soon but what if it’s at least a year away? Do we lockdown every few months as soon as numbers rise again? With schools remaining open this time I really can’t see positive cases coming down to the levels that we had in the summer that lead to the  “zero covid” utopia.

Makes no real difference to you as you've already made it clear that you reserve the right to moan like f**k about every insignificant incongruity, obviously a deep hatred for restrictions, yet a good solid hope for getting away from the restrictions is as many people as possible getting vaccinated - but that's below you, so you'll just snipe from the sidelines and literally not do the main thing that could get rid of many of your hated restrictions. 

We're all in this together. 

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Do we count each positive test as an admission

Yes

[Thereisalight..]

1 minute ago, madwullie said:

Makes no real difference to you as you've already made it clear that you reserve the right to moan like f**k about every insignificant incongruity, obviously a deep hatred for restrictions, yet a good solid hope for getting away from the restrictions is as many people as possible getting vaccinated - but that's below you, so you'll just snipe from the sidelines and literally not do the main thing that could get rid of many of your hated restrictions. 

We're all in this together. 

Oh I’m sorry that I “moaned” about restrictions but I lost my job due to this. I also had to be isolated from family members whilst I was grieving. I’m sure if you went through those things you’d also moan a bit 

[madwullie]

17 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yes

So presumably the number of patients currently in hospital is massively overestimated then. 

[madwullie]

15 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Oh I’m sorry that I “moaned” about restrictions but I lost my job due to this. I also had to be isolated from family members whilst I was grieving. I’m sure if you went through those things you’d also moan a bit 

Yeah mate I went through a lot of shit too. Sorry it was like that for you, but you're on here nit picking every single day about how ridiculous this all is, yet when you're given a chance to actually do something about helping to stop it, you'd rather other people took the slack. 

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, madwullie said:

So presumably the number of patients currently in hospital is massively overestimated then. 

The number of people in hospital that have tested positive will be accurate, but that doesn't mean they are being treated for Covid.

The number of admissions, though, will be inflated.

Edited October 31, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[madwullie]

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The number of people in hospital that have tested positive will be accurate, but that doesn't mean they are being treated for Covid.

The number of admissions, though, will be inflated.

But like I've been saying, it doesn't matter if they're being treated for covid. They are being treated by covid only staff who can't easily move to another ward etc I presume without 14 days isolation. Meaning the already stretched resources are stretched even further. I mean it won't be 50/50 but it's a nice number for illustration purposes. Normally let's say we have 100% of staff able to help out if things get stretched. Now we're essentially running two nhs operations - one for covid +ve, one for everyone else. So that's 50 staff in each of these areas that can't just pop into next door's clean ward if they need an extra pair of hands etc. 

Will check out the admissions stuff tomorrow. I'd also like to find out what appends to patients who do test false positive - clearly after a couple more tests they'll be considered covid free, but they'll have been in a covid ward - so can they be / are they moved into a clean area, or is the risk of contamination too great given they'll have been with covid patients for a good few days by then? 

[Todd_is_God]

10 minutes ago, madwullie said:

But like I've been saying, it doesn't matter if they're being treated for covid. They are being treated by covid only staff who can't easily move to another ward etc I presume without 14 days isolation. Meaning the already stretched resources are stretched even further. I mean it won't be 50/50 but it's a nice number for illustration purposes. Normally let's say we have 100% of staff able to help out if things get stretched. Now we're essentially running two nhs operations - one for covid +ve, one for everyone else. So that's 50 staff in each of these areas that can't just pop into next door's clean ward if they need an extra pair of hands etc. 

Will check out the admissions stuff tomorrow. I'd also like to find out what appends to patients who do test false positive - clearly after a couple more tests they'll be considered covid free, but they'll have been in a covid ward - so can they be / are they moved into a clean area, or is the risk of contamination too great given they'll have been with covid patients for a good few days by then? 

All you've done is highlight the inefficiency of testing asymptomatic people, and using PCR testing on them as a diagnostic tool.

I get the impression that thr tests were used initially in good faith (symptomatic people ill enough to need hospital treatment), but over time there has been misuse of these tests on an absolutely insane scale.

I can't tell if those highlighting the folly of using the tests this way are incorrect, or whether those who have caused incredible damage off the back off their use are so desperate to save face they will dig deeper, but neither side is willing to give an inch. Both can't be correct.

Edited October 31, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[D.A.F.C]

Really can't believe that we aren't at the very least testing everyone who steps foot in any hospital.
People who were clear are picking it up in hospital while getting treatment for other diseases.
Unacceptable.

[Distant Doonhamer]

Do we count each positive test as an admission or admit patients who are positive that are in need of hospital treatment. 

1149 Covid positive patients in Scottish hospitals as of 31/10/2020. There are about that number of positive tests every day. Patients in hospital with or without Covid are there because they’ve been assessed as needing that level of care.

[sparky88]

19 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Really can't believe that we aren't at the very least testing everyone who steps foot in any hospital.
People who were clear are picking it up in hospital while getting treatment for other diseases.
Unacceptable.

What do you do with those that test positive?

[Distant Doonhamer]

Yes

They count each positive test for Covid as a Covid patient in hospital. While fully accepting that will include some false positives that’s not the same as saying they are all admissions due to Covid.

[Distant Doonhamer]

What do you do with those that test positive?

Give them the appropriate treatment if they are unwell and get them to isolate if they are well.

[Todd_is_God]

10 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

They count each positive test for Covid as a Covid patient in hospital. While fully accepting that will include some false positives that’s not the same as saying they are all admissions due to Covid.

What? If you test positive after being in hospital for a week you are then counted as an admission for covid on the date of your test result, despite already being there. That can give the impression capacity is under more threat than it is.

E.g. if there were 1,600 beds occupied in total on a particular day, 50 new people admitted with covid, and 50 new positive tests from those already in hospital there would "100 new admissions" on that date, but only 50 beds more now occupied than before.

No one is suggesting every hospital admission is due to covid.

Edited November 1, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Distant Doonhamer]

What? If you test positive after being in hospital for a week you are then counted as an admission for covid on the date of your test result, despite already being there. That can give the impression capacity is under more threat than it is.

No one is suggesting every hospital admission is due to covid.

Ok. I’ve obviously misunderstood your point. It happens. Apologies for that. I suspect we are actually saying largely the same thing albeit from a slightly different viewpoint. I’ve posted a number of times in the last 24 hours and previously to highlight that capacity is not under particular threat. You’re a tough guy to agree with though in all honesty.

Edit to add I absolutely wasn’t trying to say anyone was saying all hospital admissions were due to Covid.