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I dip in now and again to coronavirus briefings, news etc. and then once I know what I can and cannot do, I go a large period of time avoiding reading too much about it - because it's too depressing.

Therefore I have a question that may be daft and may have been answered previously, so apologies for that. But it's about vaccines. 

Why do we have stories like this Vaccine is 'likely to be imperfect' and 'might not prevent infection', warns head of UK task force one immediately after stories like this Oxford Covid vaccine works in all ages, trials suggest one? Is it because they genuinely don't believe the Oxford vaccine will work as well as reported, or are they just tempering our expectations but it might work as well as reported?

The whole way through I've been, probably naively, thinking life will pretty much be normal again once a vaccine is rolled out - which I know will take time. But the general opinion now appears to be that even with a vaccine life is going to still be pretty grim. I just can't work out how that can be. 

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It's possible this wasn't an entirely neutral study, but if robust it will be handy for the gym lobby.

Quote

Keeping gyms and leisure centres open during the pandemic is critical to ensuring the health and wellbeing of communities, according to academics who found they pose an extremely low Covid-19 risk.

Analysis of more than 62 million fitness facility visits across Europe since September has found the average infection rate in gyms, leisure centres and fitness clubs is 0.78 per 100,000 visits.

The SafeACTiVE study found only 487 positive cases reported from operators based in Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Poland, Denmark, Luxembourg and the UK.


The preliminary findings of the study, conducted by Sheffield Hallam University’s Advanced Wellbeing Research Centre (AWRC) and King Juan Carlos University in Spain, will bolster calls from the fitness sector for facilities to remain open as coronavirus restrictions tighten in some regions.

The director of the AWRC, Prof Rob Copeland, said: “We know that being physically fit can help reduce the severity of Covid-19 infection and, moreover, being active can help us cope psychologically when faced with the challenges of a second wave of the pandemic across Europe.

“Keeping leisure centres and fitness clubs open and fully operational is critical to ensuring the health and wellbeing of our communities.”

The research has been commissioned by EuropeActive - a non-profit association for the European fitness and physical activity sector.

 

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I dip in now and again to coronavirus briefings, news etc. and then once I know what I can and cannot do, I go a large period of time avoiding reading too much about it - because it's too depressing.

Therefore I have a question that may be daft and may have been answered previously, so apologies for that. But it's about vaccines. 

Why do we have stories like this Vaccine is 'likely to be imperfect' and 'might not prevent infection', warns head of UK task force one immediately after stories like this Oxford Covid vaccine works in all ages, trials suggest one? Is it because they genuinely don't believe the Oxford vaccine will work as well as reported, or are they just tempering our expectations but it might work as well as reported?

The whole way through I've been, probably naively, thinking life will pretty much be normal again once a vaccine is rolled out - which I know will take time. But the general opinion now appears to be that even with a vaccine life is going to still be pretty grim. I just can't work out how that can be. 

 

my vaccine guy basically says that it “works” by reducing symptoms. So the vaccine might take someone who’d otherwise get a mild illness and make them asymptomatic, or take someone who’d get a moderate to severe illness and give them a mild illness, or take someone who’d die and give them a nasty but non-fatal illness instead. It is NOT expected to reduce the actual transmission (although the J&J vaccine which is months behind Oxford has a better chance of doing that)

 

 

Effectively you’ll still get thousands of people testing positive but much less deaths and pressure on the health system

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2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 


my vaccine guy basically says that it “works” by reducing symptoms. So the vaccine might take someone who’d otherwise get a mild illness and make them asymptomatic, or take someone who’d get a moderate to severe illness and give them a mild illness, or take someone who’d die and give them a nasty but non-fatal illness instead. It is NOT expected to reduce the actual transmission (although the J&J vaccine which is months behind Oxford has a better chance of doing that)

 

The vast majority of cases are already mild or asymptomatic.

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53 minutes ago, superbigal said:

We are sorry for suggesting Dalry Swim Centre was a dogging hotspot and would like to apologise. The original research sent to Edinburgh Live provided no evidence to back up their claim about the Swim Centre. We believe that the Swim Centre takes great care to ensure guest safety and that the Swim Centre provides a deeply valuable service to the local community.

Spoilsports

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3 minutes ago, Donathan said:

my vaccine guy basically says that it “works” by reducing symptoms. So the vaccine might take someone who’d otherwise get a mild illness and make them asymptomatic, or take someone who’d get a moderate to severe illness and give them a mild illness, or take someone who’d die and give them a nasty but non-fatal illness instead. It is NOT expected to reduce the actual transmission (although the J&J vaccine which is months behind Oxford has a better chance of doing that)

Think in layman's terms that this vaccine would train the body's immune system how to deal with a virus with COVID-19's general sort of shape by attaching a fragment of that structural type into another more or less harmless viral structure in the vaccine that the body builds up an immune response to. What's critical is the percentage of elderly people with comorbidities this helps keep alive, because it will need to be most people in that category to put a major dent into the number of deaths.

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Yes. Because she didn't mention the bits in blue.
NS was very keen to reference upper and lower ends of the estimates when talking about prevelance, R numbers and case numbers in the summer when they were in her favour. It's only fair that, when they are not so in her favour, their omission is met with questioning. It works both ways.
I'm in no way condoning or defending her here just stating the facts. She made it clear at the outset she wasn't going to discuss the outcome in detail via the daily briefing is all I was pointing out.
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Think in layman's terms that this vaccine would train the body's immune system how to deal with a virus with COVID-19's general sort of shape by attaching a fragment of that structural type into another more or less harmless viral structure in the vaccine that the body builds up an immune response to. What's critical is the percentage of elderly people with comorbidities this helps keep alive, because it will need to be most people in that category to put a major dent into the number of deaths.

I’m not a vaccine expert but I do talk to vaccine experts and yes this is what they’re trying to do. Problem is that getting a full sterilising vaccine (like the MMR jab) is ridiculously difficult to do and with the timeframe being critical, most big pharm companies are throwing everything at a “quick and dirty” effort that will buy us time until a better vaccine can be created.

These original vaccines will hopefully help us reduce deaths but the virus will still circulate endemically with an R number of 2.5-3 if all social distancing is scrapped. That is not a problem in itself if the vaccine can prevent those infected from getting serious illness.
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Because you talked about kids who are from vulnerable homes as though they were or would be forced to stay at home, or they somehow weren't being considered, when schools were kept open for precisely that reason.
Correct when the schools were closed but there are no guarantees that provision would be made to keep them out of their homes during school time in a blended scenario. I sincerely hope so but never seen that officially. Also wouldn't help the hundreds of thousands of parents who simply wouldn't give enough of a f**k to ensure their kids were engaging as required if adopting a blended model.
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Just now, Billy Jean King said:
1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:
Yes. Because she didn't mention the bits in blue.
NS was very keen to reference upper and lower ends of the estimates when talking about prevelance, R numbers and case numbers in the summer when they were in her favour. It's only fair that, when they are not so in her favour, their omission is met with questioning. It works both ways.

I'm in no way condoning or defending her here just stating the facts. She made it clear at the outset she wasn't going to discuss the outcome in detail via the daily briefing is all I was pointing out.

By all means give a quick summary and move on at the briefing, but if you decide to read the conclusion, then do so in full. Don't omit the parts which you don't want to acknowledge.

Given we are weeks away from the whole obstruction of the Salmond enquiry saga, anything which could be construed as being economical with the truth is a bad look.

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3 hours ago, Ron Aldo said:

I don't think anyone is saying schools should be completely closed but why do the government seem willing to shut down full sectors of society rather than asking school kids to wear a mask? If reports are true then pretty much everything in Lanarkshire will be closed down from next week except from schools which will be allowed to carry on as normal. It doesn't make any sense.

 

49 minutes ago, Stan Hope said:

closing them would prevent that too would it not ?

 

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11 minutes ago, Donathan said:


I’m not a vaccine expert but I do talk to vaccine experts and yes this is what they’re trying to do. Problem is that getting a full sterilising vaccine (like the MMR jab) is ridiculously difficult to do and with the timeframe being critical, most big pharm companies are throwing everything at a “quick and dirty” effort that will buy us time until a better vaccine can be created.

These original vaccines will hopefully help us reduce deaths but the virus will still circulate endemically with an R number of 2.5-3 if all social distancing is scrapped. That is not a problem in itself if the vaccine can prevent those infected from getting serious illness.

If that's the case there should be no pressure on anyone who doesn't want it to be vaccinated.

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By all means give a quick summary and move on at the briefing, but if you decide to read the conclusion, then do so in full. Don't omit the parts which you don't want to acknowledge.
Given we are weeks away from the whole obstruction of the Salmond enquiry saga, anything which could be construed as being economical with the truth is a bad look.
I'm sure she will all I was pointing out was she said right at the start the daily briefing wasn't the time or the place due to time constraints. You are shooting the messenger here I'm just passing on the reason given for not going into the detail you hoped for. Not saying that is right wrong or indifferent.
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2 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

I didn't see the briefing, but i'm assuming NS covered all of the detail, including the confidence interval and highlighted text?

20201028_132124.jpg

20201028_132225.jpg

Here's an apple. Here's an orange. 

The orange is bigger. Fascinating. Forget the apple. 

The Scottish Government have Prince Andrew level contempt for the intelligence of the public. 

Edited by Detournement
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It's possible this wasn't an entirely neutral study, but if robust it will be handy for the gym lobby.
Keeping gyms and leisure centres open during the pandemic is critical to ensuring the health and wellbeing of communities, according to academics who found they pose an extremely low Covid-19 risk.
Analysis of more than 62 million fitness facility visits across Europe since September has found the average infection rate in gyms, leisure centres and fitness clubs is 0.78 per 100,000 visits.
The SafeACTiVE study found only 487 positive cases reported from operators based in Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Poland, Denmark, Luxembourg and the UK.

The preliminary findings of the study, conducted by Sheffield Hallam University’s Advanced Wellbeing Research Centre (AWRC) and King Juan Carlos University in Spain, will bolster calls from the fitness sector for facilities to remain open as coronavirus restrictions tighten in some regions.
The director of the AWRC, Prof Rob Copeland, said: “We know that being physically fit can help reduce the severity of Covid-19 infection and, moreover, being active can help us cope psychologically when faced with the challenges of a second wave of the pandemic across Europe.
“Keeping leisure centres and fitness clubs open and fully operational is critical to ensuring the health and wellbeing of our communities.”
The research has been commissioned by EuropeActive - a non-profit association for the European fitness and physical activity sector.
 
It's always been demonstrated that gyms and fitness centres contribute to a small amount of cases. The issue that we have is that the Scottish Government have quite clearly set out that gyms need to close for any region placed into level 4. It would be a bit of a climbdown if Lanarkshire gets put into Level 4 tomorrow but gyms are allowed to stay open. Sadly, I expect that the SG would stick to their guns and close them.

In saying that, they've already moved the goalposts with regards to level 1 restrictions so who knows.
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