Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ICTChris]

Thanks for answering the question. Shame you had to be an absolute cock about it.

We’ve found the new University Challenge presenter everyone!

[Michael W]

1 minute ago, Thereisalight.. said:

I think people are forgetting about the Louisa Jordon when they’re panicking about hospitals being overrun. A hospital that wasn’t used during the “first wave” when numbers were sky high in comparison to now 

Still need to staff it, presumably from elsewhere. Do agree however that we should use it to keep covid patients away from other hospitals if we can. 

This touches upon one of my great bugbears from politicians - always happy to pledge new doctors and nurses, but refuse to acknowledge that it takes a long time to educate and train them. We can't just magic them out of thin air, sadly. 

[eez-eh]

Level 3 - Pubs and restaurants open until 6pm but can’t serve alcohol.

Level 2 - Pubs and restaurants open until 8pm, can only serve alcohol with a main meal.

Level 1 - People not allowed to visit others at home.

This is actually nuts, she’s lost the fucking plot.

[Todd_is_God]

38 minutes ago, Michael W said:

There is ultimately no way of arriving at a figure that's acceptable. Deaths are however indicative of the amount of people catching the virus and hint at the point we have totally lost control. Deaths follow cases and I think focusing purely on deaths would be a poor approach. Focus on positive cases and take it from there.

This means schools should shut where necessary, the vulnerable protected through reintroduction of shielding etc. These measures will not popular, but I don't see why we should be consigning people's careers and their prospects to the bin when there are measures that can be taken and might also be effective. 

We know the people that suffer badly from Covid against those that don't - target the measures rather than the blanket approach. 5,000 students catching the virus will generally be OK if we can track it and manage it. 5,000 pensioners getting it will cause hospitals problems. 

Why can't we just do what, until March 2020, was the agreed WHO Pandemic Management Guidelines?

Covid is not really so extraordinary that a complete deviation from the previously agreed processes is required.

[welshbairn]

16 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Why can't we just do what, until March 2020, was the agreed WHO Pandemic Management Guidelines?

Covid is not really so extraordinary that a complete deviation from the previously agreed processes is required.

That was from 2019 about the flu.

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789241516839-eng.pdf

[101]

3 hours ago, alta-pete said:

This is going to come across as a bit uncaring but it’s not meant to be.

We are the sick man of Europe - which is why life expectancy is so comparatively short - but we’ve never seen as much resource thrown at solving that problem as we have this one over the past 8 months or so. 

Where were Calderwood/Shridar/Leith et al dealing with our endemic obesity, alcohol and drugs before now? 

Tbh Dr Calderwoods work was incredibly important not so much around obesity but still very very important likewise with Professor Leitch, a pandemic wasn't the reason they came into government, I'm sure we all find it regrettable that contractors are being brought in for thousands of pounds a day to tackle the pandemic in Whitehall but we haven't done that in Scotland, rightly or wrongly

[tamthebam]

33 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

Level 3 - Pubs and restaurants open until 6pm but can’t serve alcohol.

Level 2 - Pubs and restaurants open until 8pm, can only serve alcohol with a main meal.

Level 1 - People not allowed to visit others at home.

This is actually nuts, she’s lost the fucking plot.

What counts as a main meal? I sometimes have had a packet of crisps for my tea when I couldn't be arsed cooking 

 

[Todd_is_God]

13 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

That was from 2019 about the flu.

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789241516839-eng.pdf

Yes, but there is arguably little difference in how to approach a pandemic caused by a new strain of flu, and that of Covid-19.

Both are respiratory viruses, and the methods of transmission essentially the same.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[101]

2 hours ago, renton said:

That probably won't be likely until March would be my guess.

I dunno, depends what ScotGov know about the vaccine and it's likely utility and availability.

If, as some news stories suggest it will be rolled out soon then that is the likely exit strategy, and if you have that, then you can maybe be more severe in restrictions now.

I suspect if someone said that a vaccine was in fact years away, we'd be looking at a different plan.

We do have a problem with general health outcomes in this country, and it seems that there is a correlation between deprivation, a population's health outcomes and the spread of this virus.

If there are two things to come out of this:

1. There needs to be kept in place the architecture around public health to allow us to far more quickly detect and isolate viruses as they come into the country. We need a codified strategy for dealing with stuff like this, and stockpiled equipment to allow us to surge critical care. In an age of increasing populations, climate change and increasing sharing of spaces between people and animals, this is likely the front line of civil defence in the 21st Century. This won't be the last time this happens.

2. More specifically to Scotland, health and education inequalities need seriously tackled. Whether that is targeted infrastructure, or money. Whether it's old fashioned big government intervention, telling you what not to eat. Some of that might work, my guess is ultimately only a fully growing and rebalanced economy will really start to eat into it, but the public health resilience of the population is likely a real weakness that needs addressed.

A vaccine is surely on the way all plans world wide point to that.

 

Point 2 is so important and without wishing to dive into the politics forum a trade deal with America will reverse every single gain we have ever made.

[tamthebam]

With no football, drink or fun perhaps a Scottish band should do a cover version of Morrissey's classic "Every day is like Sunday....on Lewis" 

[Jim McLean's Ghost]

3 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

A vaccine that won’t stop infection, transmission or death

A vaccine that will merely reduce symptoms for people who are already asymptomatic or immune

A vaccine that will be ineffective in the elderly and vulnerable 

It’s pointless 

Sure.

Those millions of yearly flu vaccines must also just be for fun.

[D.A.F.C]

10 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

A vaccine that won’t stop infection, transmission or death

A vaccine that will merely reduce symptoms for people who are already asymptomatic or immune

A vaccine that will be ineffective in the elderly and vulnerable 

It’s pointless 

[madwullie]

24 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yes, but there is arguably little difference in how to approach a pandemic caused by a new strain of flu, and that of Covid-19.

Both are respiratory viruses, and the methods of transmission essentially the same.

But is that not the revived wisdom why we fucked up. We were prepared for, and acted like we were defending against a pandemic flu. The point being that this type p virus needed rather more urgent and extreme measures to get it under control. Herd immunity being one of the crazy lads lads lads ways of dealing with a new flu. 

I'm sure there was chat along those lines at the time 

[welshbairn]

42 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yes, but there is arguably little difference in how to approach a pandemic caused by a new strain of flu, and that of Covid-19.

Both are respiratory viruses, and the methods of transmission essentially the same.

But you neglected to mention it wasn't about Covid19 and it was from last year about a theoretical flu epidemic. And you said it was valid in March 2020. In a thread about Covid19. Did you hope people wouldn't notice?

Edited October 28, 2020 by welshbairn

[Bert Raccoon]

The whole Coronavirus situation has been horrific for everyone in many ways but it seems to be affecting some worse than others but seeing folk posting from the minute they wake until they sleep is just concerning. Think a break would be good for some, a circuit break if you will.

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

But you neglected to mention it wasn't about Covid19 and it was from last year about a theoretical flu epidemic. And you said it was valid in March 2020. In a thread about Covid19. Did you hope people wouldn't notice?

Why would there be a specific plan drawn up in advance for covid-19?

Think about what you've just said, and understand how ridiculous that sounds.

[Todd_is_God]

30 minutes ago, madwullie said:

But is that not the revived wisdom why we fucked up. We were prepared for, and acted like we were defending against a pandemic flu. The point being that this type p virus needed rather more urgent and extreme measures to get it under control. Herd immunity being one of the crazy lads lads lads ways of dealing with a new flu. 

I'm sure there was chat along those lines at the time 

The point being no it didn't, but we did it anyway.

[Fullerene]

5 hours ago, Chairman Mao said:

The virus was “under control” in the summer because

a) er, it was the summer

Whoever wishes to investigate medicine properly should proceed thus: in the first place to consider the seasons of the year … 

Hippocrates

and

b) herd immunity threshold was reached in the spring and the virus is now endemic

To believe that restrictions played any part is to suffer from the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy

Argentina went into lockdown before the U.K., Sweden didn’t go into lockdown 

When it is summer here, it is winter in Argentina.

[Todd_is_God]

Date of Death data for Scotland (vs reported date) shows that daily Coronavirus deaths in Scotland can best be described as "erratic"

It also highlights the limited value of the daily reported figures. Take October 21st as an example. 28 deaths were announced that day, when the actual number of deaths the previous day was half of that.

On the flip side, the single highest day so far was the 18th of October with 21, yet the next day this figure was announced by NS as just 1.

It's not news to anyone here that there are lags etc, and that the data is not an accurate representation of the previous day, but to those who only watch NS's briefings, or watch/read the news, there is a tremendous lack of transparancy about these figures still, 7 months in.

[madwullie]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

Why would there be a specific plan drawn up in advance for covid-19?

Think about what you've just said, and understand how ridiculous that sounds.

But it's a fact that we were so slow to lockdown and flirted with herd immunity (as they did in the states) because all the preparations we had were for a pandemic which this wasn't. It was more infectious amongst other things. The exact same with The US. 

There's loads more recent ones, but it's two in the morning, so it might not be perfect but at least it's a link. It outlines some of the differences we should have made in approach

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/did-the-uk-government-prepare-for-the-wrong-kind-of-pandemic

https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2020/10/06/chris-cook-planning-covid-test-and-trace/content.html

There's more too, but there's no point linking them all. 

In response to your welshbairn post, they had stockpiles of flu medicine etc they were relying on, advice to let large gatherings continue and the flu etc. It's all in that article. They knew how to fight off flu, and a treatment phase is included in the pandemic plans for flu. It's possible to prepare for a more contagious novel virus just because you don't know whta that virus exactly is, or what it's going to be called. You can mitigate against certain factors that would make it less likely to spread. 

You're wrong ro suggest that prep for a flu should have been fine because they are both respiratory diseases. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by madwullie