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12 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Because the only thing I want to to discuss is why cant we have it all. If theres any conversation that is hard, but necessary, it's that one

Because for some reason we seem to view any covid deaths as wholly preventable, completely unacceptable, and that we must sacrifice anything and everything to try to prevent these, no matter how futile those attempts may be, or what the consequences are.

This view remains constant even as the estimated IFR continually falls.

Political wokeness.

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3 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Pubs allowed to open but not serve alcohol? Heads gone 

I assume there is some new scientific evidence that allows premises to remain open until 8pm & 10.30pm (depending on restriction level) instead of 6pm & 10pm, though, and it's not just a blatent attempt to appease the hospitality industry.

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I saw that a couple of weeks ago. Average Covid death age Is 82-odds which struck me as a reasonably fair innings. Checking again tonight, it seems the Covid deaths are outliving the general Scottish populace: 

https://www.scotsman.com/health/scotlands-life-expectancy-lowest-western-europe-poorest-scots-men-expected-die-13-years-those-least-deprived-areas-2982894

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Because for some reason we seem to view any covid deaths as wholly preventable, completely unacceptable, and that we must sacrifice anything and everything to try to prevent these, no matter how futile those attempts may be, or what the consequences are.
This view remains constant even as the estimated IFR continually falls.
Political wokeness.
Hindsight is an amazing thing, so il try to make this sound reasonable... I think the response was probably fair enough in April, worldwide I mean. But I think it's fair to suggest that theres at least some of whats happening now that smells of, we cant back away from this now because look at all the damage that was done. Theres still a problem with this virus, but I get the impression that if politics wasnt every bit as important* as public health, we would have turned our back on almost all of the measures we see in place, having decided they are disproportionate on a cost/effectiveness ratio. I'll reiterate that once a vaccine begins to be rolled out, my participation in their measures is basically over. Who I have in my own home for example, will be a matter for me to decide.


*to the people making the calls obviously, not to us.
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1 minute ago, alta-pete said:

I saw that a couple of weeks ago. Average Covid death age Is 82-odds which struck me as a reasonably fair innings. Checking again tonight, it seems the Covid deaths are outliving the general Scottish populace: 

https://www.scotsman.com/health/scotlands-life-expectancy-lowest-western-europe-poorest-scots-men-expected-die-13-years-those-least-deprived-areas-2982894

That's as it may be but still a but shite to have in a condolences card "you made it past the Scottish life expectancy" thankful I've not had someone very close to me die for a long while but trying to celebrate their life under current circumstances is utterly shit and grieving just now would be awful.

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3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I assume there is some new scientific evidence that allows premises to remain open until 8pm & 10.30pm (depending on restriction level) instead of 6pm & 10pm, though, and it's not just a blatent attempt to appease the hospitality industry.

Definitely new scientific evidence rather than appeasing 😑

Local places are saying pubs here have to shut at 6pm, don’t know if that’s correct as I haven’t looked at the “dossier” yet. Anyone confirm this?

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4 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

I saw that a couple of weeks ago. Average Covid death age Is 82-odds which struck me as a reasonably fair innings. Checking again tonight, it seems the Covid deaths are outliving the general Scottish populace: 

https://www.scotsman.com/health/scotlands-life-expectancy-lowest-western-europe-poorest-scots-men-expected-die-13-years-those-least-deprived-areas-2982894

Yip I read the average age of a covid death is a year longer than the average life expectancy. 

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1 minute ago, Bairnardo said:

Hindsight is an amazing thing, so il try to make this sound reasonable... I think the response was probably fair enough in April, worldwide I mean. But I think it's fair to suggest that theres at least some of whats happening now that smells of, we cant back away from this now because look at all the damage that was done. Theres still a problem with this virus, but I get the impression that if politics wasnt every bit as important* as public health, we would have turned our back on almost all of the measures we see in place, having decided they are disproportionate on a cost/effectiveness ratio. I'll reiterate that once a vaccine begins to be rolled out, my participation in their measures is basically over. Who I have in my own home for example, will be a matter for me to decide.


*to the people making the calls obviously, not to us.

Would you only let people in once you have had a vaccine? Only only let pals in that have had the vaccine?

For me once 2/3 of the population have had the vaccine surely we will just be told to get cracking. That's what I will be doing anyway.

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2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Political wokeness.

I'm awake brother, and I've seen you swivel on every Holyrood announcement to condemn what you previously supported. No solutions to offer, just nit picking over every single detail. It's all about politics with you, zero about offering solutions, apart from with massive retrospective glasses.

 

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Would you only let people in once you have had a vaccine? Only only let pals in that have had the vaccine?
For me once 2/3 of the population have had the vaccine surely we will just be told to get cracking. That's what I will be doing anyway.
No, because peoples willingness to have a vaccine or not is for them to decide. If a vaccine achieves the goal of preventing the NHS being overwhelmed then for me, that's that. This disease is new. It's also shit and horrible, of that there is no doubt, but just because it's new doesnt mean there is an "at any cost" right not to catch it or die from it.

We arent going to eradicate it, we are going to see people die from it every year, just as we do from flu. Despite that, I dont ask anyone if they have had the flu vaccine. The world at large will be given a fighting chance by a vaccine which has been lacking so far and was pretty much the justification for the measures, the fact that there was nothing for it. If there is something for it, then its crack on time for me.
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1 minute ago, 101 said:

That's as it may be but still a but shite to have in a condolences card "you made it past the Scottish life expectancy" thankful I've not had someone very close to me die for a long while but trying to celebrate their life under current circumstances is utterly shit and grieving just now would be awful.

This is going to come across as a bit uncaring but it’s not meant to be.

We are the sick man of Europe - which is why life expectancy is so comparatively short - but we’ve never seen as much resource thrown at solving that problem as we have this one over the past 8 months or so. 

Where were Calderwood/Shridar/Leith et al dealing with our endemic obesity, alcohol and drugs before now? 

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1 hour ago, virginton said:

Your helpful reminder that with the SG (March to now) you always needed at least three weeks to determine the impact of relaxing measures before ever progressing on to the next step, but when it comes to justifying its latest bullshit semi-lockdown it takes just ten days to decide that they're definitely having an impact.

DB46B0A0-EBBD-4647-848D-4FBB216816F0.png.f06261953792899bb6bce53b6ac3a64c.png

Wonder if anything else happened in those 10 days that may have seen less people mixing and therefore lowered the chance of the virus spreading. 

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3 minutes ago, 101 said:

Would you only let people in once you have had a vaccine? Only only let pals in that have had the vaccine?

For me once 2/3 of the population have had the vaccine surely we will just be told to get cracking. That's what I will be doing anyway.

That probably won't be likely until March would be my guess.

I dunno, depends what ScotGov know about the vaccine and it's likely utility and availability.

If, as some news stories suggest it will be rolled out soon then that is the likely exit strategy, and if you have that, then you can maybe be more severe in restrictions now.

I suspect if someone said that a vaccine was in fact years away, we'd be looking at a different plan.

We do have a problem with general health outcomes in this country, and it seems that there is a correlation between deprivation, a population's health outcomes and the spread of this virus.

If there are two things to come out of this:

1. There needs to be kept in place the architecture around public health to allow us to far more quickly detect and isolate viruses as they come into the country. We need a codified strategy for dealing with stuff like this, and stockpiled equipment to allow us to surge critical care. In an age of increasing populations, climate change and increasing sharing of spaces between people and animals, this is likely the front line of civil defence in the 21st Century. This won't be the last time this happens.

2. More specifically to Scotland, health and education inequalities need seriously tackled. Whether that is targeted infrastructure, or money. Whether it's old fashioned big government intervention, telling you what not to eat. Some of that might work, my guess is ultimately only a fully growing and rebalanced economy will really start to eat into it, but the public health resilience of the population is likely a real weakness that needs addressed.

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I assume there is some new scientific evidence that allows premises to remain open until 8pm & 10.30pm (depending on restriction level) instead of 6pm & 10pm, though, and it's not just a blatent attempt to appease the hospitality industry.
Anyone thinking decisions are based solely on the science is living in cloud cuckoo land.

There is always a political (and economic) element to the decisions.
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3 minutes ago, renton said:

That probably won't be likely until March would be my guess.

I dunno, depends what ScotGov know about the vaccine and it's likely utility and availability.

If, as some news stories suggest it will be rolled out soon then that is the likely exit strategy, and if you have that, then you can maybe be more severe in restrictions now.

I suspect if someone said that a vaccine was in fact years away, we'd be looking at a different plan.

We do have a problem with general health outcomes in this country, and it seems that there is a correlation between deprivation, a population's health outcomes and the spread of this virus.

If there are two things to come out of this:

1. There needs to be kept in place the architecture around public health to allow us to far more quickly detect and isolate viruses as they come into the country. We need a codified strategy for dealing with stuff like this, and stockpiled equipment to allow us to surge critical care. In an age of increasing populations, climate change and increasing sharing of spaces between people and animals, this is likely the front line of civil defence in the 21st Century. This won't be the last time this happens.

2. More specifically to Scotland, health and education inequalities need seriously tackled. Whether that is targeted infrastructure, or money. Whether it's old fashioned big government intervention, telling you what not to eat. Some of that might work, my guess is ultimately only a fully growing and rebalanced economy will really start to eat into it, but the public health resilience of the population is likely a real weakness that needs addressed.

Another is the idea that throwing enormous amounts of money at a problem to try to fix it is impossible. Corbyn's wildest dreams could have been fulfilled right now. Had he not lost the election and Covid hadn't happened and the Treasury and City had been convinced obviously.

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IMG_9922.jpg

This excerpt of the Scottish Government paper should be noted when it comes to restrictions, especially in Lanarkshire and Glasgow. They’re only projections, of course, and I haven’t seen the methodology used to produce them.

But if you’re a minister you can’t really ignore the stark reality of them.

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Anyone thinking decisions are based solely on the science is living in cloud cuckoo land.

There is always a political (and economic) element to the decisions.
And anyone who even remotely thinks / believes that a pubs opening hours have been decided by some scientific criteria is warped.
Where the hell did he get that from, no one has ever suggested opening hours of pubs was being driven by science !
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33 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I'm awake brother, and I've seen you swivel on every Holyrood announcement to condemn what you previously supported. No solutions to offer, just nit picking over every single detail. It's all about politics with you, zero about offering solutions, apart from with massive retrospective glasses.

I've offered plenty of ideas and solutions, m9.

Nothing wrong with updating your outlook as more information becomes available btw - i'd argue it was desireable. Pity the SG are still stuck in March in that regard.

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