Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[renton]

11 minutes ago, Lyle Lanley said:

Edinburgh to be in Tier 3 apparently. 

Wonder if Glasgow and the surrounding areas will be in Tier 4. 

Where was this?

[invergowrie arab]

If Edinburgh is in Tier 3 so is everything from Dundee to Girvan. Can't see it.

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, 101 said:

If the vaccine is only successful in 50% of cases then a long term relaxation to the level we were at in July is more likely.

And you'd be happy with that?

[Steven W]

3 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

If Edinburgh is in Tier 3 so is everything from Dundee to Girvan. Can't see it.

i think this is exactly what will happen

[Todd_is_God]

I find it staggering that, in just 7 months, a "three week lockdown to save the NHS being overrun" has turned into a "permanent measures even with a vaccine" and people are actually OK with it.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Ron Aldo]

Edinburgh to be in Tier 3 apparently. 
Wonder if Glasgow and the surrounding areas will be in Tier 4. 

The Scotsman saying that Lanarkshire is under consideration for Level 4. That would be gutting but probably not surprising.

[Bairnardo]

I find it staggering that, in just 7 months, a "three week lockdown to save the NHS being overrun" has turned into a "permanent measures even with a vaccine" and people are actually OK with it.

I am in agreement with you here. Its blowing my mind.

[madwullie]

7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

And you'd be happy with that?

I don't think anyone would be "happy" with that. 

[Mr Tourette]

For once I think Sturgeon was pretty careless with her words on this.

The way she phrased it when she was announcing it was that this was for a 16 day period, full stop. No mention of an initial 16 days and then we'll see how things are.

I suppose you could say that everything is fluid and an extension or at least the possibility of one was obvious, but it was unusual for her not to state that it was the case.

As far as I remember listening to the announcement at the time, she said it would be a 16 day period but at the end of that period some areas might not be going back to the previous restrictions depending on case numbers in different areas

[The Moonster]

57 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yes I get that. I was asking for people's thoughts on, once the vaccine is here, still having masks, distancing and no large crowds indefinitely.

Does the tweeter not just mean it won't be an overnight thing? We won't announce the vaccine one day and life is normal the next, it'll take a lot of time to roll it out for everyone that needs it and during that time we will likely still be under some sort of restrictions.

I can't see justification for indefinite restrictions for a virus we have a vaccine for.

[renton]

Anyone been looking at the PHS dashboard?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

Fairly interesting stuff. You can get all the neighbourhood incidence rates, and the trends for different LAs and healthboards. These are arranged by specimen date, rather than by the date of test announcement. That means it gives a clearer trend of when infections were relative to the lag in the test system - though it obviously makes the last couple of data points more suspect than the daily announced data, since you'd expect more to be added on to those dates as the week progresses.

Still though, if you look at some of the different LAs:

Glasgow City

North Lanarkshire:

South Lanarkshire:

Edinburgh City:

Dundee City:

Aberdeen City:

Looks like Glasgow City may have flattened out, and Lanarkshire might just be starting to slope off a bit. Edinburgh seems to have peaked around the 6th October, and Aberdeen on the 12th. Dundee might have flattened off but isn't showing a decrease in cases yet, albeit it's period of growth didn't take off until a bit later, around the end of September/start of October.

based on that, you could make the case that Edinbrugh should be a tier lower than Glasgow - lower case loads overall and a seemingly decreasing trend, and Aberdeen a tier below Edinburgh. Guess it depends where they decide to stick the west as to where the rest of us end up, relatively speaking.

Still though, this was the really interesting, and probably not surprising statistic - infections by deprivation index:

Consistently it's the more deprived quintile's that are getting hit hardest. Not a huge surprise I guess, if they are more likely to be doing face to face jobs, and not white collar home working.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2020 by renton

[carpetmonster]

38 minutes ago, resk said:

 

 

Aye, what's all that about? Can't figure out if they are attention-seeking bellends or just stupid.
 

 

Likely both; the two things tend to go hand in hand anyway. 

[Todd_is_God]

13 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

Does the tweeter not just mean it won't be an overnight thing? We won't announce the vaccine one day and life is normal the next, it'll take a lot of time to roll it out for everyone that needs it and during that time we will likely still be under some sort of restrictions.

I can't see justification for indefinite restrictions for a virus we have a vaccine for.

You can read the tweet the same as I can. She gives no indication they are going away at any point. I've seen a few blue tick doctors saying that masks, distancing etc will be permanent so i'm quite satisfied that she means so too.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

12 minutes ago, Mr Tourette said:

As far as I remember listening to the announcement at the time, she said it would be a 16 day period but at the end of that period some areas might not be going back to the previous restrictions depending on case numbers in different areas

 

The transcript is on here somewhere. When announcing it she gave no such indication.

[Todd_is_God]

18 minutes ago, madwullie said:

I don't think anyone would be "happy" with that. 

Happy enough to vote for the SNP though?

[madwullie]

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Happy enough to vote for the SNP though?

Atm yes. And if there are continued measures globally in your doomsday hypothetical situation will you still be blaming wee nippy? 

[The Moonster]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

You can read the tweet the same as I can. She gives no indication they are going away at any point. I've seen a few blue tick doctors saying that masks, distancing etc will be permanent so i'm quite satisfied that she means so too.

I would need to know their justification for keeping those things in place because it wouldn't make sense to me to keep them in place if the vulnerable are protected. We can't live for the rest of mankind with distancing, we require quite intimate interaction to continue the species...

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Atm yes. And if there are continued measures globally in your doomsday hypothetical situation will you still be blaming wee nippy? 

Fair enough. After all it is an SNP government that have produced a blueprint for "living with the virus" which includes restrictions being in place even following the deployment of a vaccine "on a large enough scale"

Therefore a vote for the SNP is a vote endorsing this policy.

You talk about measures being in place globally as if the measures that apply currently in central Scotland are the same all over the place. They simply aren't.

[Lyle Lanley]

45 minutes ago, renton said:

Where was this?

Leaked report apparently. 

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

I would need to know their justification for keeping those things in place because it wouldn't make sense to me to keep them in place if the vulnerable are protected. We can't live for the rest of mankind with distancing, we require quite intimate interaction to continue the species...

The justification appears to be that it won't be a sterilising vaccine, rather one which boosts the immune response / lessens the severity of the symptoms in those who develop the disease.

As others have mentioned this is esssntially how the flu vaccine works. I'm with you that it makes no sense.

I'm also aware that this is a doctor speaking and not a leader of a government, but as NS is clearly of the opinion that this is both an acceptable strategy, and one that people will accept, I am concerned.