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In the same article he says that Sweden has herd immunity but tegnell himself plus recent case stats shows that to be incorrect. 

We've been here before, but making grand pronouncements about who has beaten the virus, and who has performed well etc is always pretty dangerous given there's still probably a long way to go. I think we can take it as read that us and America have definitely fucked it, and come 2022 or whenever when looking back, we will still have fucked it. Sweden/NZ/Aus could still go any way. 

I mean some of the most critical voices on here declared the pandemic over in June. I think we can all agree they were wrong and the 2nd wavers can claim a solid victory there ✌🏼 🤘🥂 🥳🥳

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21 minutes ago, Donathan said:


Suppose the media and governments had ignored it, the general layman probably wouldn’t even realise there was anything wrong.

Happens with the flu every winter. Key difference from that with COVID though is that when you have a population with no prior antibody related immunity to a novel infection it's a wee bit difficult to hide the main peak of infection after a few weeks of exponental growth on cases, which is why whistles started to be blown in a big way in Wuhan despite a government and state controlled media that very much wanted to hush everything up.

3 minutes ago, madwullie said:

In the same article he says that Sweden has herd immunity but tegnell himself plus recent case stats shows that to be incorrect...

Definitely comes across as someone who is emotionally invested and is looking for evidence to back up their favoured pet theories, but a lot of what's in there about IFR can't be easily dismissed based on the known facts at this point.

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1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Happens with the flu every winter. Key difference from that with COVID though is that when you have a population with no prior antibody related immunity to a novel infection it's a wee bit difficult to hide the main peak of infection after a few weeks of exponental growth on cases, which is why whistles started to be blown in a big way in Wuhan despite a government and state controlled media that very much wanted to hush everything up.

Definitely comes across as someone who is emotionally invested and is looking for evidence to back up their favoured pet theories, but a lot of what's in there about IFR can't be easily dismissed based on the known facts at this point.

True. One thing about IFR though is its pretty immaterial in some ways whether people die or not. More important and pressing is the number that required any kind of hospitalisation, which then involves isolation, blocked off wards and staff etc and takes up resources and beds. It's no great celebration if hardly anyone is dying of the virus, but their hospitalisation means that other people in need of critical / urgent care can't receive it due to no space / staff and ultimately die. 

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1 hour ago, virginton said:

Absolute NAP that the 'local authority' basis won't apply to local authority areas in the Central Belt which aren't actually being badly affected.

Meanwhile the Welsh government are already floating the idea of a second 'firebreak' lockdown for January within 48 hours of their first one beginning. 

So much for those adult conversations between governments and the public!

The Short, Sharp Shock  to the virus will allow them to get it back under control, actually. Completely under control. It will be completely controlled.

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I came round to that conclusion a wee while ago. Those that need to (e.g: me, my wife and our daughter) continue to shield as best as possible with very limited contact with others, and those that don't need to shield carry on (with continued social distancing, hand washing, mask wearing etc). 

Actually implementing those restrictions effectively instead of pandering to the whining drama queens would be a step in the right direction.

 

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1 hour ago, madwullie said:

...It's no great celebration if hardly anyone is dying of the virus, but their hospitalisation means that other people in need of critical / urgent care can't receive it due to no space / staff and ultimately die. 

For sure and the reason for social distancing and wearing masks etc was to try to flatten the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed during the main first wave peak. Somewhere along the line though a lot of people got it into their heads that a novel viral infection with an R0 > 3.0 and a relatively low IFR could and should be actively stopped in its tracks and eradicated in the absence of a vaccine after it had already undergone exponential growth for a couple of months.  At that point those people need a reality check where the IFR is concerned and where the knock on effects that continuing to fixate on COVID-19 to an extent that is driven by mass hysteria more than by rationality has elsewhere in health care terms.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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If you told people a year ago we’d have restrictions like we’ve had, they’d have thought you were mad or moved to North Korea. Whilst I understand some of them, a fair few baffle me. At work I can sit in the cabin at lunch time and eat and drink for half an hour sans mask, but if I want to get up and get another bar of chocolate out the box I need to put a mask on for all of 20 seconds. Who knew covid only attacked when you’re standing up

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3 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

If you told people a year ago we’d have restrictions like we’ve had, they’d have thought you were mad or moved to North Korea. Whilst I understand some of them, a fair few baffle me. At work I can sit in the cabin at lunch time and eat and drink for half an hour sans mask, but if I want to get up and get another bar of chocolate out the box I need to put a mask on for all of 20 seconds. Who knew covid only attacked when you’re standing up

shared dundee x

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1 hour ago, madwullie said:

I mean some of the most critical voices on here declared the pandemic over in June. I think we can all agree they were wrong and the 2nd wavers can claim a solid victory there ✌🏼 🤘🥂 

The pandemic is over. Inappropriate PCR testing is generating large numbers of 'cases' which, coupled with the absolutely normal increase in hospitalisations for respiratory illnesses at this time of year, is giving the impression that we are in the midst of a second wave.

If there truly was a problem, hospital admissions, hospital occupancy, and all cause mortality would be exceeding normal levels, as they did in March and April.

Mortality rates in general rise at this time of year. Re-badging as many as possible as 'Covid' doesn't make it anything special.

The government are in so deep with their vaccine at all costs strategy, that severely tightening restrictions is their only play. Not doing so, and seeing deaths remain at normal levels anyway, would destroy any remaining acceptance of measures from the public.

 

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9 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

But a very large percentage did have prior immunity, probably from exposure to other coronaviruses...

That's why I wrote "antibody immunity". I'm aware of the possible T-cell immunity angle. Think you are going a step too far when expressing complete certainty on that, because it's more a working hypothesis than scientific fact at the moment.

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Italy putting 75% of secondary school learning online.

Their daily cases have rocketed from around 1500 per day when schools re-opened last month to almost 20,000 in recent days.

As expected, a similar pattern to the rest of Europe. Italy opened schools a month later than the UK, France, Spain, etc, and their second wave arrived a month later.

Edited by Szamo's_Ammo
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1 hour ago, Thereisalight.. said:

If you told people a year ago we’d have restrictions like we’ve had, they’d have thought you were mad or moved to North Korea. Whilst I understand some of them, a fair few baffle me. At work I can sit in the cabin at lunch time and eat and drink for half an hour sans mask, but if I want to get up and get another bar of chocolate out the box I need to put a mask on for all of 20 seconds. Who knew covid only attacked when you’re standing up

Yes because you're sitting with noone within at least a meter of you when your sat down. When you get up and move you'll probably be closer to folk. 

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