Cyclizine Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Donathan said: Exactly. I’d give it 6 months to get a vaccine and if nothing by then, go for herd immunity and accept a death toll. Herd immunity only works if a vaccine is available. You need >90% of people to be immune, either by having been infected or, more likely, vaccinated. Diseases like measles, rubella, polio were endemic until vaccines were developed. You simply can't get the immunity in the general population to such a high level, just by infecting people with the disease. The NHS will be overwhelmed and the death toll and economic impact massive. Edited October 24, 2020 by Cyclizine 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Tynierose said: And of course the flip side we see now is massively long waiting lists, referrals down for cancers and other life threatening diseases, slower times to be seen, gp practices toiling, massive mental health and addictions crisis. Its a real difficult one to manage to be honest. Yeah it's absolute shit I kind of hoped there would be a better plan in place this time round to keep some sort of regular service running, rather than just a repeat of the first few months 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Cyclizine said: Herd immunity only works if a vaccine is available. You need >90% of people to be immune, either by having been infected or, more likely, vaccinated. Diseases like measles, rubella, polio were endemic until vaccines were developed. You simply can't get the immunity in the general population to such a high level, just by infecting people with the disease. The NHS will be overwhelmed and the death toll and economic impact massive. No you don't. You just need (1-1/R) If the R number was 3 for example, you'd need 1 - 1/3 = 66.67% of people immune. The lower the R is, the less immunity you need. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Another ‘anti-restriction’ protest in London this weekend. Hopefully those not complying with social distancing will be prosecuted. I was shopping yesterday when an almighty row broke out between an older guy who was masked and a young coiuole (early 20s) who were not wearing any. It all started with a growling "Get yer fucking mask on" from the old boy. I can't blame him - it's frustrating watching people blatantly not using masks. Personally - if you are not able to wear a mask then you are not able to go to the shops. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 (edited) 31 minutes ago, djchapsticks said: No we aren't. There will be a lot of pain, a lot of heartache and an awful amount of hardship but you seriously think without a vaccine, humanity will be fucked? Come on! Correct. A relatively small number of people more than normal would die, and everyone else would get on with their lives. The hardship will come from rebuilding businesses and jobs that have been needlessly lost. I watched an interview on Irish TV from the other day where it was suggested that the billions of pounds being spent on things like track and trace and insane levels of testing would have been better spent temporarily increasing critical care facilities. Quite hard to argue against that, as at least you would get a return for your money. Edited October 24, 2020 by Todd_is_God 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclizine Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Tynierose said: And of course the flip side we see now is massively long waiting lists, referrals down for cancers and other life threatening diseases, slower times to be seen, gp practices toiling, massive mental health and addictions crisis. Its a real difficult one to manage to be honest. It is a rock and a hard place. I know it is no consolation to you and your colleagues at the coalface in primary care, but hospital staff are massively frustrated at our inability to provide necessary and timely care as well. Most of us see healthcare as a vocation as well as a job and it is morale draining to see the impact on societal health. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Distant Doonhamer Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 I’m amazed this thread is still running. I’m sure our PM said in July things would be back to normal by November when he unveiled his roadmap. Just a week more until normality returns. Good old Boris. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclizine Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Donathan said: No you don't. You just need (1-1/R) If the R number was 3 for example, you'd need 1 - 1/3 = 66.67% of people immune. The lower the R is, the less immunity you need. So how do you propose to keep R as low as possible without social restrictions? I assume this is the point you were aiming for? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: I was shopping yesterday when an almighty row broke out between an older guy who was masked and a young coiuole (early 20s) who were not wearing any. It all started with a growling "Get yer fucking mask on" from the old boy. I can't blame him - it frustrating watching people blatantly not using masks. Personally - if you are not able to wear a mask then you are not able to go to the shops. I think compliance is decreasing, no idea if a number could be put on it. I did notice a correlation between no mask being worn and slack jawed mouth breathers though. Edited October 24, 2020 by Sergeant Wilson 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Donathan said: No you don't. You just need (1-1/R) If the R number was 3 for example, you'd need 1 - 1/3 = 66.67% of people immune. The lower the R is, the less immunity you need. Presumably you need continual behavioural restrictions to preserve a steady R number without a vaccine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 A vaccine won’t really solve it either.As we know this country is full of crackpot anti vaxxers who won’t take it. They will then continue to spread the infection among vulnerable groups who can’t take the vaccine. Ergo restrictions will continue.Was speaking to a boss of a big logistics company the other day. He said they’re basically expecting 2021 to be the same as 2020 with varying levels of lockdown throughout the year and travel restrictions coming and going.Think the reality is that any kind of return to normal is years away, not months away. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: I was shopping yesterday when an almighty row broke out between an older guy who was masked and a young coiuole (early 20s) who were not wearing any. It all started with a growling "Get yer fucking mask on" from the old boy. I can't blame him - it frustrating watching people blatantly not using masks. Personally - if you are not able to wear a mask then you are not able to go to the shops. 2 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said: I think compliance is decreasing, no idea of a number could be put on it. I did notice a correlation between no mask being worn and slack jawed mouth breathers though. If it were only the idiots who didn’t comply who caught the virus it would probably be a positive thing. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Another ‘anti-restriction’ protest in London this weekend. Hopefully those not complying with social distancing will be prosecuted. Last week's attracted 300 !!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cyclizine said: So how do you propose to keep R as low as possible without social restrictions? I assume this is the point you were aiming for? With vaccines. If the natural R is around 3 with no prior immunity then we can push it below 1 by immunising 2/3 of the population. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Just now, Billy Jean King said: 41 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Another ‘anti-restriction’ protest in London this weekend. Hopefully those not complying with social distancing will be prosecuted. Last week's attracted 300 !!! If it’s Trafalgar Square they should manage no problem then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Presumably you need continual behavioural restrictions to preserve a steady R number without a vaccine. If you let it rip until 2/3 of the population have been infected and then after that, R will always stay below 1 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Granny Danger said: If it were only the idiots who didn’t comply who caught the virus it would probably be a positive thing. It was one in particular woman who stood out. She seemed to have no control over her jaw other than to communicate with whoever was with her. It was like it was dislocated, until she bellowed from the queue for something to be brought to her. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Yeah this argument from Billy Jean King a few pages ago that we society may never return to normal and we just live out the rest of time with restrictions is just complete and utter nonsense. We aren’t there yet but eventually there comes a point where if no vaccine is viable that we accept it as another risk to health and get back to living our lives alongside the risk.Whit ! I did clarify within a minute or two that never wasn't possible I said I think govts will give it at least a year. This is my opinion of what I think will happen not necessarily what should. You dont think the UK government's will give a vaccine at least a year before chucking restrictions ? ETA I see today Macron has pretty much said what I was suggesting would happen ie they are willing to persist with measures until well into 2021 awaiting a vaccine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 (edited) Spain seems to a more extreme version of what's happening in most places, a big surge in cases with a much lower increase in deaths. I haven't read a definitive explanation for why that is, more testing, masks etc reducing the viral load of those infected, mutation in the virus..? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ Edited October 24, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: If it’s Trafalgar Square they should manage no problem then. They should kettle them until they're all directly breathing from each other's lungs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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