madwullie Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, renton said: So, I know we all love a good graph on this thread, I have (sad b*****d that I am) taken Travelling Tabby's data set for new cases and plotted it first linearly, including some inportant dates for openings and restrictions. Orange is the actual data, blue is the 7 day average. Green vertical lines are things opening, which I've labelled, yellow are restrictions (also labelled). Black dashed lines are 5 days after an opening (5 days is the median infection time) red dashed lines are two weeks after infection, purple line indicates when Scot Gove believed R stepped above 1: But I don't like plotting exponentials on a linear trend, it tends to decieve the eye and drag it towards the knee point where the exponential takes off, and isn't good at looking at the early stages of exponential growth. So, I replotted it with a Y axis log scale. This converts the data so that a pure, noiseless exponential function would look like a straight line, the slope of which would be derived from the time constant of the exponential. The shallower the gradient, the flatter the line, the longer it takes for infections to increase: On a log scale, using the 7 day average curve you can kinda see that infections begin to climb again almost as soon as anything is open again. There is that one (weekend?) of very small numbers in the middle of it, but there is no doubt that there is exponential growth of infections even before the schools open. interestingly that seems to flatten out around the second week of August when the schools went back, and stays reasonably flat over the next two weeks afterwards. Scot Gov said it's track and trace teams were seeing cases assocaited with indoor gatherings in the west, which prompted the initial restrictions there. The gradient shallows again for a week or so after that until the Universties open, which does seem to push the gradient higher again. What it does suggest to me is how hard it is to disagregate causes. If we can assume from this that hospitality, indoor socialising and retail do drive some case loads, then it's quite hard to show schools making a big difference based on this. You could delete the date line for the schools opening and the trend would look reasonably uninterupted. That's not to say schools didn't - for all we know, another factor may have been decreasing at the time and schools picking up the slack... but it doesn't appear like schools particularly change the trajectory of the graph if you look at it on a longer time frame. Interesting - thanks for being arsed to do this. Looks from this graph like the increased infection rates are a culmination of everything that came before. Every time something new opens, there's a new twitch upwards of cases at about 5 days, and then when something new opens again, that twitch is on top of the foundation of cases that is already higher than it was due to the previous twitch. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, Aufc said: That’s my old man confirmed with covid. Says he is feeling ok at the moment so hopefully continues like that All the best. How old is he? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, renton said: red dashed lines are two weeks after infection Not sure what you mean here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbitterandgrumpy Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 13 hours ago, welshbairn said: I'm getting bored of the three of them greenying each others posts and red dotting anyone who disagrees with them. It's a wee game they're playing and they probably don't believe a word of what they're arguing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hedgecutter said: Not sure what you mean here. Maybe not clear as I should be. What I was trying to indicate was a two week period after the day something opened assuming that person was infected on the day it opened. Not an entirely helpful indicator by any means but on this thread we do tend to look at things in terms of two weeks after something when looking for effects. I don't think its that relevant but put it in for completeness. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 35 minutes ago, Aufc said: That’s my old man confirmed with covid. Says he is feeling ok at the moment so hopefully continues like that Get him on vitamin d! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said: Get him on vitamin d! Deuchars? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Maybe I've missed something, but why are Lancashire councillors having to 'agree' to move to Tier 3? Surely this is a set of tightly-defined national measures that mean a region is either Tier 3 or isn't? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, renton said: So, I know we all love a good graph on this thread, I have (sad b*****d that I am) taken Travelling Tabby's data set for new cases and plotted it first linearly, including some inportant dates for openings and restrictions. Orange is the actual data, blue is the 7 day average. Green vertical lines are things opening, which I've labelled, yellow are restrictions (also labelled). Black dashed lines are 5 days after an opening (5 days is the median infection time) red dashed lines are two weeks after infection, purple line indicates when Scot Gove believed R stepped above 1: But I don't like plotting exponentials on a linear trend, it tends to decieve the eye and drag it towards the knee point where the exponential takes off, and isn't good at looking at the early stages of exponential growth. So, I replotted it with a Y axis log scale. This converts the data so that a pure, noiseless exponential function would look like a straight line, the slope of which would be derived from the time constant of the exponential. The shallower the gradient, the flatter the line, the longer it takes for infections to increase: On a log scale, using the 7 day average curve you can kinda see that infections begin to climb again almost as soon as anything is open again. There is that one (weekend?) of very small numbers in the middle of it, but there is no doubt that there is exponential growth of infections even before the schools open. interestingly that seems to flatten out around the second week of August when the schools went back, and stays reasonably flat over the next two weeks afterwards. Scot Gov said it's track and trace teams were seeing cases assocaited with indoor gatherings in the west, which prompted the initial restrictions there. The gradient shallows again for a week or so after that until the Universties open, which does seem to push the gradient higher again. What it does suggest to me is how hard it is to disagregate causes. If we can assume from this that hospitality, indoor socialising and retail do drive some case loads, then it's quite hard to show schools making a big difference based on this. You could delete the date line for the schools opening and the trend would look reasonably uninterupted. That's not to say schools didn't - for all we know, another factor may have been decreasing at the time and schools picking up the slack... but it doesn't appear like schools particularly change the trajectory of the graph if you look at it on a longer time frame. Conclusions drawn from clearly presented data? on this thread? It will never catch on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned Nederlander Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, oldbitterandgrumpy said: I'm sure no one is even remotely bothered but the character on the left - the one played by Martin Short - is Ned Nederlander. That's a Grade One Username on the Radford Scale 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Gaz said: Maybe I've missed something, but why are Lancashire councillors having to 'agree' to move to Tier 3? Surely this is a set of tightly-defined national measures that mean a region is either Tier 3 or isn't? I suppose it depends on who's job it is to enforce it. Didn't Aberdeen City Council not briefly threaten to disobey Scot Gov edicts on enforcing the hospitality ban? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 In Liverpool?Don’t be silly, nobody works in Liverpool. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Szamo's_Ammo Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 (edited) From Public Health England: Weekly national flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports I'll not post any charts or graphs from this as they seem to upset some people but I know a few are interested in these reports. I'll just leave the link here for a bit of light reading. Warmest regards Edited October 16, 2020 by Szamo's_Ammo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Maybe I've missed something, but why are Lancashire councillors having to 'agree' to move to Tier 3? Surely this is a set of tightly-defined national measures that mean a region is either Tier 3 or isn't?The government can impose Tier 3 but has been trying to get buy-in from popular local mayors as its deemed the public will be more compliant if the local leaders are encouraging them to. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Plus a number of Lancashire MPs are Tories, so seems to be some double standards - gyms allowed to stay open etc while closed (and protesting) in Liverpool 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, Donathan said: The government can impose Tier 3 but has been trying to get buy-in from popular local mayors as its deemed the public will be more compliant if the local leaders are encouraging them to. One person's "buy in" is another's "passing the buck". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 You strike me as someone who would be a fan of her work.Cannae stand her. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteRoseKillie Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, The Moonster said: I'd argue that makes you too emotionally involved to make a clear judgement. It's an argument you could make, certainly. I would counterargue that having been through the years where my offspring were at school and entirely dependent upon Mrs WRK and I, I have limited skin in the game in this one, but can empathise with the struggles of today's parents of school-age children (including the two Rosettes with kids). I'm not saying I'm SuperDad, but my opinion is based on something more than theory and prejudice, unlike some on this thread. Thanks for engaging, though. It's nice to know why someone thinks I'm wrong! -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteRoseKillie Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 57 minutes ago, oldbitterandgrumpy said: They're really not a patch on the BRALT Amigos of Yore. Bendarroch, Tedi and bennett - what a crew 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aufc Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 All the best. How old is he?63 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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