Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[renton]

Just now, Szamo's_Ammo said:

Seems strange they wouldn't include a setting that has over 700,000 children within it and over 50,000 teachers plus thousands of other staff yet include "Beauty".

Might well be a conspicuous omission, might be that school transmission doesn't make it into the top 10 causes. Be interesting to get an answer on that point.

I guess the salient point is that R was already above 1 before schools opened, according to the modelling. Therefore even if Schools were a major driver (and I still don't see the evidence for that) then other factors had already caused an unsustainable situation.

I suppose it may well be that opening schools might have contributed to pushing those numbers higher. Uni halls certainly have. Yet the underlying root cause for a dangerous background prevelance in the first place lies elsewhere.

[Marshmallo]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

Might well be a conspicuous omission, might be that school transmission doesn't make it into the top 10 causes.

[Szamo's_Ammo]

Just now, renton said:

Might well be a conspicuous omission, might be that school transmission doesn't make it into the top 10 causes. Be interesting to get an answer on that point.

I guess the salient point is that R was already above 1 before schools opened, according to the modelling. Therefore even if Schools were a major driver (and I still don't see the evidence for that) then other factors had already caused an unsustainable situation.

I suppose it may well be that opening schools might have contributed to pushing those numbers higher. Uni halls certainly have. Yet the underlying root cause for a dangerous background prevelance in the first place lies elsewhere.

If you worked in a school or had children at school, wouldn't you want to know the number of people within that setting who are testing positive for Coronavirus?

Here's the example from England again:

Seems strange that Scotland's data would differ so much from the country next door.

Schools not even in the top 10, behind nail bars. Wow!

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, WATTOO said:

Ultimately it's the virus which is driving the restrictions and not politics, hence we have had local lockdowns in Wales (Labour Gov) and local lockdowns in England (Conservative Gov).

But of course people don't want to acknowledge this as they see it as an opportunity to "SNP bash", hopefully the majority of our electorate can see through all the lies and insinuations.....

The SNP government has had two months to see how local lockdowns were getting on: they've proven to be absolutely fucking useless. The greater Manchester case rate is six times higher than Scotland's national total after weeks of restrictions. 

It's almost as if picking and choosing what you think people should be doing and giving a free pass to that is not the best way to stop the spread of an airborne disease.

[Moonglum25]

Congratulations on ruining the hospitality industry, that’s a big block of votes you have lost.

If this was so vital to slowing the virus down why was it not implemented at least last week?

She has not a clue what she is doing.

[vikingTON]

NB: They can get fucked with this 'by health board area' definition of restrictions now, given that previous measures were targeted at council areas. The case rate on the Clyde Riviera is seven times lower than Glasgow and comparable to Dumfries and other areas outside of the central belt, so this travel advice will be filed in the bin where it belongs.

Edited October 7, 2020 by vikingTON

[renton]

10 minutes ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

If you worked in a school or had children at school, wouldn't you want to know the number of people within that setting who are testing positive for Coronavirus?

Here's the example from England again:

Seems strange that Scotland's data would differ so much from the country next door.

Schools not even in the top 10, behind nail bars. Wow!

Bear in mind that England graph counts number of incidents, the Scotland graph counts the percentage of cases. Given the definition of incident in the English data is 2 +ve cases in 7 days, you could have 100 such incidents in schools vs a single 200 person outbreak in a food processing plant and the English data would record a 10 to 1 ratio in favour of education but the Scottish data would show a 50/50 split. Worth noting that the Scottish data shows a lower percentage of cases vs. The number of recorded incidents for care homes.

For me, I'd have hoped for an expected more in depth analysis to show, if possible where various contacts source infection was. As it is, all they are showing is a causality type inference. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by renton

[Ross.]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Surely most of them will just close?  Would selling coffees and juice cover the cost of staff wages etc?

The mark up on cups of coffee I should fucking think so.

Just been informed by my employer that from next week we are going to 1 day in the office and 4 days at home. We are currently doing 1 week in, 1 week at home. I am happy with this news.

[Szamo's_Ammo]

Would be interesting to know for sure if there were more people testing positive for Coronavirus in Scotland having been in a nail bar/hairdressers that week than there are people testing positive who have been in a school.

I'll DM Jason Leitch on Twitter and see if he gets back to me.

As someone with teachers in the family it could be great news!

[Bairnardo]

Great to see the bleating about schools continue despite it being blatantly obvious that they arent on the table short of a full on lockdown, which would cause much tears and snotters from the same whining bores. 

 

[renton]

1 minute ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

Would be interesting to know for sure if there were more people testing positive for Coronavirus in Scotland having been in a nail bar/hairdressers that week than there are people testing positive who have been in a school.

I'll DM Jason Leitch on Twitter and see if he gets back to me.

As someone with teachers in the family it could be great news!

The data does include family clusters. They have been steadily decreasing week on week. Presumably if schools were exporting infections then household family clusters would surely be steady or increasing?

Not also that friend gathering type infections have largely shown a downwards trend as well. Suppose that is testimony to the restrictions put in on indoor socialising. 

Only hospitality has stayed pretty much flat throughout.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Great to see the bleating about schools continue despite it being blatantly obvious that they arent on the table short of a full on lockdown, which would cause much tears and snotters from the same whining bores. 

 

You're right, education is (correctly IMHO) not on the table short of a full lockdown. 

But given that the English statistics indicate that a large number of cases originated in schools, and Scottish statistics seem to virtually ignore the correlation between students returning to education and the increase in cases, there's surely a valid discussion to be had here ?

 

[Honest_Man#1]

6 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Great to see the bleating about schools continue despite it being blatantly obvious that they arent on the table short of a full on lockdown, which would cause much tears and snotters from the same whining bores. 

 

And for the millionth time, nobody is asking for the shutdown of schools, just for the government to be honest that they are not “safe” like they claim and that they’ve judged them to be worth the rise in infections they cause.

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

You're right, education is (correctly IMHO) not on the table short of a full lockdown. 

But given that the English statistics indicate that a large number of cases originated in schools, and Scottish statistics seem to virtually ignore the correlation between students returning to education and the increase in cases, there's surely a valid discussion to be had here ?

 

No, the English data shows a large number of incidents, not a large number of cases.

...and of course the whole point of the Scottish paper is to demonstrate that R was already in a bad place before schools opened. Maybe they are contributing loads, but that doesn't seem to be what the available evidence suggests. Cases were already doubling in around a weeks time before the schools opened.

Edited October 7, 2020 by renton

[Szamo's_Ammo]

6 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Great to see the bleating about schools continue despite it being blatantly obvious that they arent on the table short of a full on lockdown, which would cause much tears and snotters from the same whining bores. 

 

You're more than welcome to regale everyone with tedious personal anecdotes or what you had for your tea last night.

It's an open forum.

[invergowrie arab]

2 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

And for the millionth time, nobody is asking for the shutdown of schools, just for the government to be honest that they are not “safe” like they claim and that they’ve judged them to be worth the rise in infections they cause.

I'm probably being incredibly naive but a message that your kids will likely pick up Covid at school so be extra careful not to have house parties and wear a fucking mask might have some merit.

[Bairnardo]

5 minutes ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

You're more than welcome to regale everyone with tedious personal anecdotes or what you had for your tea last night.

It's an open forum.

Solid posting m8. Totally relevant. Keep up the good work. 

[Forest_Fifer]

Both governments are both in denial about the need for targeted shielding. 
There was mass hysteria from WFH journalists and Facebook maws about letting the virus circulate but now we know more about how mild it is for most people (Long Covid does not exist) it is the best way forward. 
It's basically what has already happened with key workers with little impact outside high risk areas of the NHS. 

See, you can say that long covid doesn't exist as much as you like, but reality would disagree with you.

BBC News - Coronavirus: Specialist 'long Covid' clinics to be set up in England
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54449145

[Melanius Mullarkey]

When’ s Todd back?

We need some more graphs. 

[Bairnardo]

2 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

When’ s Todd back?

We need some more graphs. 

@G51 made some promises elsewhere on the forum.