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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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44 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

England only figures so can't say for sure if it's the same in Scotland, however.

Ei_VN9TWAAAji3k.jpeg.thumb.jpg.c1c70dcf90e533e12d1bac83cf0d2a0d.jpg

Of those 772 cases, 341 were related to education - this doesn't distinguish between schools and universities.

However if you go to page 22 of the report itself, you'll find data of clusters/outbreaks they've traced to education over a period of three weeks. Of 370 identified clusters, only 31 were related to universities while 290 came from primary or secondary schools. 134 of those in primary, so it's hardly massively skewed to older pupils either.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921561/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf

The most significant form of transmission is still between people who live in the same household as you'd expect, followed by household visits which proves that restrictions there will help, but it's clear that in those three weeks at least schools were the biggest factor in people taking infections into households in the first place.

If only it had been possible to predict that schools would be responsible for an increase in cases, or deduce this from the increase in cases which perfectly correlated with the return of schools.

Not quite as detailed in terms of the 'where' of infections, the Scottish statistical report only goes as far as using age groups as a crude proxy for infections via education:

https://beta.isdscotland.org/find-publications-and-data/population-health/covid-19/covid-19-statistical-report/

So at the end of the week of the 20th September, 8.1% of all positive cases involved people between the ages of 2 and 17. 0.5% of positive cases found in nursery age kids, 2.4% in Primary school kids and 5.2% in Secondary school kids.

The data you would need from both this and the PHE data is whether the kids are the index cases. Are they getting it in school, then passing it to Adults, or are the cases being picked up by adults, transmitted to the kids and then the cases are being picked up by the contact and Trace teams in education settings? While the PHE data classifies clusters as being 2 or more people involved, developing symptoms within 30 days, how many are large scale clusters like you'd expect to occur if a class of 30 or more had a large transmission through it and into the teachers and parents?

Clearly, If the kids are the index cases, picking it up from their contemporaries and then passing it out into the communities then there is a case to answer for at least moving to blended learning. Particularly in older age groups. If a bunch of 18 year old Uni students in halls can have it spread like wildfire, it does seem like a matter of time before the same occurs to a bunch of 16 or 17 year old kids in a class room (and I guess the question is why haven't we seen that yet?)

On the other hand, if infections in schools are still largely being driven by adults passing it to kids from households inwards, is it still the case that sufficient further restrictions on teachers and other support staff in terms of social distancing, and of parents congregating at gates, etc. Can be used to maintain the schools being open while still pushing infection rates down?

Clearly, it's a hill the government on both sides of the border have chosen to die on. I do suspect that it might be better if even the last two years of high school students were a le to curtail their time in class. If blended learning was a logistical nightmare before, would that still be the case if it were only applied to older year kids?

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1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said:

England only figures so can't say for sure if it's the same in Scotland, however.

Ei_VN9TWAAAji3k.jpeg.thumb.jpg.c1c70dcf90e533e12d1bac83cf0d2a0d.jpg

Of those 772 cases, 341 were related to education - this doesn't distinguish between schools and universities.

However if you go to page 22 of the report itself, you'll find data of clusters/outbreaks they've traced to education over a period of three weeks. Of 370 identified clusters, only 31 were related to universities while 290 came from primary or secondary schools. 134 of those in primary, so it's hardly massively skewed to older pupils either.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921561/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf

The most significant form of transmission is still between people who live in the same household as you'd expect, followed by household visits which proves that restrictions there will help, but it's clear that in those three weeks at least schools were the biggest factor in people taking infections into households in the first place.

If only it had been possible to predict that schools would be responsible for an increase in cases, or deduce this from the increase in cases which perfectly correlated with the return of schools.

Can't be right - "The Science" backed the 10pm curfew. Must be some sort of alternative science here that's found its way into the Government's own report by accident. Hate when that happens. 

 

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Seeing as Todd is on happy holidays, I'll post this, which seems like the sort of thing he'd like.  This is the example graph from Vallance and Whitty's briefing with the actual numbers since then overlaid.

Obviously there could be reporting lags and a million other things.  But potentially encouraging news.

Image

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5 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Seeing as Todd is on happy holidays, I'll post this, which seems like the sort of thing he'd like.  This is the example graph from Vallance and Whitty's briefing with the actual numbers since then overlaid.

Obviously there could be reporting lags and a million other things.  But potentially encouraging news.

Image

Probably just a weekend lag thing, no?

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33 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Can't be right - "The Science" backed the 10pm curfew. Must be some sort of alternative science here that's found its way into the Government's own report by accident. Hate when that happens. 

 

What was the science behind it? 

The Welsh government explained their reason for closing pubs at 10 was because people who'd been out later had limited recollection which was no good for track and trace. That actually sounds plausible. 

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7 minutes ago, Snafu said:

The Times newspaper and others currently running this story -

Ministers are preparing to enforce a total social lockdown across much of northern Britain and potentially London to combat a spiralling second wave of coronavirus.

Under the new emergency plan, all pubs, restaurants and bars would be ordered to shut for two weeks initially. Households would be banned indefinitely from meeting each other in any indoor location where they were not already under the order. Schools would stay open as well as shops, factories and offices at which staff could not work from home.

 

‘Tougher measures on social interaction will have to come though. They’re inevitable in some parts if you look at the numbers,’ they added. 

On Friday, London was added to a government ‘watchlist’, and changed status to become an area of national concern, due to the rise in active cases in the capital. Mayor of London Sadiq Khan described it as a ‘very worrying tipping point’. 

What the f**k in northern Britain? And what ministers have the power to do this?

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2 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

My missus and me were out at the pub on Saturday night with another couple. We went out an hour earlier than usual, gave false names and phone numbers for track and trace and then we all came back to our for a few more drinks. Had the pubs shut at the usual time we’d have just gone back to our own houses.

My daughter and 4 pals all went round to a friend’s house rather than going out to pub specifically because of the 10pm closing time.

There is no doubt that the 10pm curfew is ludicrous. 

Danny Kaye: The Original Walter Mitty | Golden Globes

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Just now, Chairman Mao said:

My missus and me were out at the pub on Saturday night with another couple. We went out an hour earlier than usual, gave false names and phone numbers for track and trace and then we all came back to our for a few more drinks. Had the pubs shut at the usual time we’d have just gone back to our own houses.

My daughter and 4 pals all went round to a friend’s house rather than going out to pub specifically because of the 10pm closing time.

There is no doubt that the 10pm curfew is ludicrous. 

If you really want to create some outrage you should have said you coughed on a pensioner or something 

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19 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

My missus and me were out at the pub on Saturday night with another couple. We went out an hour earlier than usual, gave false names and phone numbers for track and trace and then we all came back to our for a few more drinks. Had the pubs shut at the usual time we’d have just gone back to our own houses.

My daughter and 4 pals all went round to a friend’s house rather than going out to pub specifically because of the 10pm closing time.

There is no doubt that the 10pm curfew is ludicrous. 

 

FE985AFD-B147-4086-8500-613CD59667D8.gif

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My missus and me were out at the pub on Saturday night with another couple. We went out an hour earlier than usual, gave false names and phone numbers for track and trace and then we all came back to our for a few more drinks. Had the pubs shut at the usual time we’d have just gone back to our own houses.
My daughter and 4 pals all went round to a friend’s house rather than going out to pub specifically because of the 10pm closing time.
There is no doubt that the 10pm curfew is ludicrous. 
Why did you give false names and phone numbers?
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"Men and young 'less likely to follow rules'

The government's self-isolation rules mean a person cannot leave their house - even to buy food or other essentials, or to exercise.

It requires anyone with symptoms or a positive test result to isolate for 10 days, while members of their household or people who have been contacted by Test and Trace must quarantine for 14 days.

The crackdown on self-isolating comes as research carried out for the Department of Health found that the number of people with symptoms following the self-isolation rules was low.

Although people's intention to self-isolate was high - about 70% - only 11% of people went into quarantine after being asked to by NHS Test and Trace.

The most common reasons that people gave for not self-isolating were because they needed to go to the shops for groceries or a pharmacy or because their symptoms got better.

Men and younger people were also less likely to follow the test, trace and isolate guidance, the research added."

kids.jpg.a723f3b955291cb0968cfe21a7c95564.jpg

Maybe they should just lock down the under 45s and let the oldies play like that Simpsons episode:

oldies.jpg.afe521689a0c5d76e970fba6aba84983.jpg

 

Not a surprise really.

 

My son-in-law is one of those "covid is a lie" types - he is constantly sharing crap from dubious sources.

 

You know the type - the "why are we spending so much time and effort on this when we should be..." posts. The latest one was just ridiculous - comparing how we tackle covid to how we deal with paedophilia.

 

As I pointed out to him it isn't one or other.

 

He is also one who thinks face masks should not be compulsory - the usual "it's people's right not to wear a mask" - I said that's fine but what about my right not to be coughed on by a clatty b*****d?

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

I thought the Whitty Valance thing was a “worst case if we do f**k all” scenario which was clearly never going to happen anyway.

No, they said it would happen and it didn't so their opinion is no longer valid. Bloody experts stopping me going to the fitba

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