Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, Donathan said:

If that’s the case then their ought to be some civil disobedience

Yet there won't be. As the majority are shitebags.

[Steven W]

24 minutes ago, Andy groundhopper said:

If people don't bother to get tested, (if they only have a cough) then you don't see a rise in numbers. How many of the deaths are related to another illness, and what age are these people ? Is the number of cases ÷ the number of deaths a really high percentage ? How many people have had covid19 without knowing, all questions that need to be answered. 

Correct.

All we ever get is headline numbers, which create the fear (maybe it's deliberate?).

As with everything, the devil is in the detail. And we get no details whatsoever

[Ingo ohne Flamingo]

1 hour ago, Rugster said:

If you get a test here you’re supposed to isolate until you get your results, not go around spreading it. 

You'd think that. My wife was telling me yesterday a grandparent who had full custody came into the school to collect their grandson and was saying how he (that grandad) had just received his negative test, 5 days after taking it. The child was in the school the whole week with him dropping and collecting the kid every day. 

One thing we've learned from this whole shambles is how thick a large number of the population are. 

[Andy groundhopper]

Correct. The 10 covid19 commandments ? 1) I will not wear a mask 2) I will go into the pub as normal and give a false name 3) I will visit my family and have them in my house 4) Party on 5)  I will go on holiday to where ever I like 6) no limit on group meetings in the park etc, you won't stop me, and I won't pay the fine. Come on P&B I'm running out of ideas !

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers protesting in London - an utter bunch of mouth-breathing puddle-drinkers.

 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18733575.trafalgar-square-chaos-anti-maskers-protest-coronavirus-restrictions/

 

 

[Ingo ohne Flamingo]

1 hour ago, Bairnardo said:

As part of the "grown up" conversation, how do folk on here, in their capacity as punters, not politicians or epidemiologists envisage learning to live with this virus? Lets assume for the sake of conversation that a vaccine will not come to pass until 2022.

Do schools, workplaces, hospitals, travel, sport, hospitality and general socialising.

This is something that has been crossing my mind for a good few weeks and in the last week or so becoming more aware of the Swedish "experiment". 

I'm in the mindset now that we can't keep kicking the can down the road until a vaccine comes which could be here in November, but it could be 2021,2022 or 2023 or later - we just don't know. 

As part of my job I travel around Europe attending Advisory boards for a Pharmaceutical company who develop insulins for Diabetes. Developing any sort of medicine is a very lengthy process, then there's trying to get approval from each country which is another minefield itself. Then the cost of the medicines /vaccines itself but that last point I don't think will be a big issue due to what is at stake here. 

With all that, I think we need to open up a lot more but make moves to protect those who need it. We need the 18-65s out working, socialising and doing what they normally do. Children and young adults in full time education as well. Venues and stadiums opened as well. 

We can't afford a lost generation here through lack of learning, the subsequent debt that will arise which we'll be paying for, the lack of opportunities for our youngsters of which were already scarce and lastly the mental health of the nation. We were lucky first lock down the weather was good and we had the message it was only for a few weeks which wasn't the case. Now we're going into the dark cold winter, this could be grim

Next up is social distancing and face masks, they've been in place for a wee while now but is it that effective? There seems to be a lot less chat about contaminated surfaces, is that still a proven spreader of the virus? I'm no expert but simple things like social distancing, face masks and regularly washing hands no doubt helps to an extent. 

With all that, I think we need to follow Sweden lead and go for the herd immunity approach whilst keeping our old and vulnerable protected. For Sweden it looks like it took 6 months to reach that stage. If we start now we may be good to go again from March. 

Another thing to bear in mind, going for that approach is political suicide for any politician who implements it. With the Scottish government election next May and Nicola having such high approval ratings and Scottish independence naturally the favoured outcome in any future referendum then whatever nicola does may affect that may 2021 result. 

[Big Fifer]

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

 

Schools should remain open at all times.

Working from home should be the default for those who can until vaccine is ready. Those who can’t work from home should go to work, no furlough unless your industry is forceably closed by the government.

Hospitals run as normal and prioritise non-covid patients over covid patients. Covid patients treated if space allows. Potentially open the nightingales/Louisa Jordan to cope with overspill

I’d advise against overseas travel, other than air bridges to safe countries. Properly enforced quarantine on return from a non safe country

Hospitality: Keep socially distanced pubs and restaurants open but no nightclubs or mass gatherings. Nightclub staff one of the few people that should still be furloughed.

Sport: Socially distanced crowds allowed

General socialising: No restrictions, let people do what they like

 

I've no fecking idea what they're doing to enforce this, by the way. I got back from France just over two weeks ago and wasn't contacted once, which I guess explains why the government ministers are coming out with the "we believe 99.9% of folk are ahering to it", because they've absolutely no idea if folk are. 

ETA - naebdy at the airport checking the forms as you come in either. 

Edited September 19, 2020 by Big Fifer

[anotherchance]

This is something that has been crossing my mind for a good few weeks and in the last week or so becoming more aware of the Swedish "experiment". 
I'm in the mindset now that we can't keep kicking the can down the road until a vaccine comes which could be here in November, but it could be 2021,2022 or 2023 or later - we just don't know. 
As part of my job I travel around Europe attending Advisory boards for a Pharmaceutical company who develop insulins for Diabetes. Developing any sort of medicine is a very lengthy process, then there's trying to get approval from each country which is another minefield itself. Then the cost of the medicines /vaccines itself but that last point I don't think will be a big issue due to what is at stake here. 
With all that, I think we need to open up a lot more but make moves to protect those who need it. We need the 18-65s out working, socialising and doing what they normally do. Children and young adults in full time education as well. Venues and stadiums opened as well. 
We can't afford a lost generation here through lack of learning, the subsequent debt that will arise which we'll be paying for, the lack of opportunities for our youngsters of which were already scarce and lastly the mental health of the nation. We were lucky first lock down the weather was good and we had the message it was only for a few weeks which wasn't the case. Now we're going into the dark cold winter, this could be grim
Next up is social distancing and face masks, they've been in place for a wee while now but is it that effective? There seems to be a lot less chat about contaminated surfaces, is that still a proven spreader of the virus? I'm no expert but simple things like social distancing, face masks and regularly washing hands no doubt helps to an extent. 
With all that, I think we need to follow Sweden lead and go for the herd immunity approach whilst keeping our old and vulnerable protected. For Sweden it looks like it took 6 months to reach that stage. If we start now we may be good to go again from March. 
Another thing to bear in mind, going for that approach is political suicide for any politician who implements it. With the Scottish government election next May and Nicola having such high approval ratings and Scottish independence naturally the favoured outcome in any future referendum then whatever nicola does may affect that may 2021 result. 

The virus isn’t as lethal now as it was in March given the increase in treatments - I’d guess before we get a vaccine then more treatments will be available, making it even less lethal.

Early part of next year I think/hope we’ll be in the home straight.

I’m a lot more “cautious” than many on this thread but even I can’t see anything like a return to March/April, unless there’s some horrendous mutation/overspill into flu.

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, Big Fifer said:

I've no fecking idea what they're doing to enforce this, by the way. I got back from France just over two weeks ago and wasn't contacted once, which I guess explains why the government ministers are coming out with the "we believe 99.9% of folk are ahering to it", because they've absolutely no idea if folk are. 

ETA - naebdy at the airport checking the forms as you come in either. 

They claim to be spot checking 20% by phone. 

[Ingo ohne Flamingo]

11 minutes ago, anotherchance said:

 

The virus isn’t as lethal now as it was in March given the increase in treatments - I’d guess before we get a vaccine then more treatments will be available, making it even less lethal.

Early part of next year I think/hope we’ll be in the home straight.

I’m a lot more “cautious” than many on this thread but even I can’t see anything like a return to March/April, unless there’s some horrendous mutation/overspill into flu.

 

Very good point and one I forgot. You're correct, the virus isn't as lethal as it was as we've found ways to treat it and things like the use of certain steroids have been proven to keep the death rate down. 

[doulikefish]

Look on the bright side lads

[welshbairn]

29 minutes ago, anotherchance said:

The virus isn’t as lethal now as it was in March given the increase in treatments - I’d guess before we get a vaccine then more treatments will be available, making it even less lethal.

I'm not sure that new treatments are major part of the difference, most of them help a pretty small percentage. I think it's more down to most people taking precautions like washing their hands more often, social distancing and face coverings, which means if you do catch it it's likely to be with a lower viral load. I just hope we're patient enough to let it trundle along with a low death toll and keeping to fairly easy precautions, and localised restrictions where necessary, until a vaccine is distributed. There is a tolerable middle ground between total lockdown and let the virus run free that we could cope with for a few months.

[anotherchance]

I'm not sure that new treatments are major part of the difference, most of them help a pretty small percentage. I think it's more down to most people taking precautions like washing their hands more often, social distancing and face coverings, which means if you do catch it it's likely to be with a lower viral load. I just hope we're patient enough to let it trundle along with a low death toll and keeping to fairly easy precautions, and localised restrictions where necessary, until a vaccine is distributed. There is a tolerable middle ground between total lockdown and let the virus run free that we could cope with for a few months.

That’s true also in terms of viral load.

Certainly for those who do get it bad (ventilators) I think they’re less likely to die now given the treatments - that metric will only improve over time as more become available, and I really hope that sort of thinking comes into the thinking of governments who assess how best to tackle the virus.

[madwullie]

4 hours ago, Donathan said:

If that’s the case then their ought to be some civil disobedience

 

[madwullie]

1 hour ago, anotherchance said:

 

That’s true also in terms of viral load.

Certainly for those who do get it bad (ventilators) I think they’re less likely to die now given the treatments - that metric will only improve over time as more become available, and I really hope that sort of thinking comes into the thinking of governments who assess how best to tackle the virus.

 

It's been 6 months and we've got one steroid that helps a small percentage of really fucked people, and what one or two other drugs that might help very specifc patients in very specific situations.

Im.not entirely certain there's a raft of new treatments in the pipeline that are going to hugely improve outcomes before a vaccine. 

Would love to be wrong tho

Edited September 19, 2020 by madwullie

[Michael W]

4 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

As part of the "grown up" conversation, how do folk on here, in their capacity as punters, not politicians or epidemiologists envisage learning to live with this virus? Lets assume for the sake of conversation that a vaccine will not come to pass until 2022.

Do schools, workplaces, hospitals, travel, sport, hospitality and general socialising.

Schools to be shut when virus reaches high level of prevalence within certain areas/regions and learning delivered remotely. For a present example, I'd have them closed in North West England at the moment. Need for schools to be in 5 days a week in the school urgently reviewed.

Hospitals run as normal, with covid patients taken to reopened Nightengales where possible. 

Working from home to continue where possible with "return to office" decisions subject to limits on capacity that may be occupied. Home working mandated for anyone who is able to when prevalence of covid is high in a given area. 

Hospitality venues allowed to open as normal with the relevant rules on distancing etc in place as they are now. All venues takeaway only (including pubs) when prevalence of covid in an area is high. 

General socialising - No limit on meeting people from other households outside unless doing so constitutes a mass gathering (say 20 people). Meet two other households indoors with no limit placed on numbers that may attend. Shielding reintroduced for high risk people when prevalence of covid is high in an area. 

Sport allowed to continue as normal with spectators allowed in provided distancing is implemented and observed. 

Edited September 19, 2020 by Michael W

[welshbairn]

Lots of sensible suggestions here when the question is what should be done rather than how daft are they (Governments or "other people") .

Edited September 19, 2020 by welshbairn

[anotherchance]

It's been 6 months and we've got one steroid that helps a small percentage of really fucked people, and what one or two other drugs that might help very specifc patients in very specific situations.
Im.not entirely certain there's a raft of new treatments in the pipeline that are going to hugely improve outcomes before a vaccine. 
Would love to be wrong tho

Whitty, who always errs on the side of caution and negativity, was really talking up the progress of treatment research the other week

The Southampton trial is waiting for authorisation I think:

https://www.uhs.nhs.uk/ClinicalResearchinSouthampton/Research/News-and-updates/Articles/Inhaled-drug-prevents-COVID-19-patients-getting-worse-in-Southampton-trial.aspx

Small steps, but reducing the risk for the relatively small proportion likely to be significantly at risk a bit at a time should be talked about just as much as a vaccine.

[Steven W]

16 minutes ago, anotherchance said:

 

Whitty, who always errs on the side of caution and negativity, was really talking up the progress of treatment research the other week

The Southampton trial is waiting for authorisation I think:

https://www.uhs.nhs.uk/ClinicalResearchinSouthampton/Research/News-and-updates/Articles/Inhaled-drug-prevents-COVID-19-patients-getting-worse-in-Southampton-trial.aspx

Small steps, but reducing the risk for the relatively small proportion likely to be significantly at risk a bit at a time should be talked about just as much as a vaccine.

 

Interesting. Never knew about this. (Was it reported in the media anywhere?)

However, my overall sense with these things is none of it happens very quickly. Not sure if it gets bogged down in red tape or not?

[Billy Jean King]

That's our local Morrisons reintroduced the queuing systems with limited access again, a few angry roasters giving the poor door restriction staff pelters after massive queues formed. Bog roll and bleach runs imminent no doubt