renton Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Paco said: Has it though? The data coming out of Glasgow right now isn’t as accurate as it was a couple of weeks ago, the Glasgow Airport site is caught in the same mess as the English system. I genuinely don’t know if tests are being restricted in the area as they’ve done in England but that could be another reason. Hopefully, of course, they genuinely are plateauing but I don’t think we can know that for sure with what is publicly available. We’re getting perilously close to the fabled 5% positivity rate too, Sturgeon seems to pay particular attention to that. Unhindered it looks like we’ll be there in a week at the most. But, another lockdown like the last one just can’t happen without furlough. I’ve been pretty consistent that I think the government will cave and offer it in some form, probably under a new name, to targeted industries. But what i envisaged as a stop-gap to prevent airlines or large industrial sites like Airbus Broughton laying everyone off will, it appears, need to go into hospitality and leisure as well. It now needs to be essentially furlough but maybe tell office employers to either buy Susan from Admin a laptop or get her to f**k. This mess is all so avoidable. That’s the most frustrating part. One thing I am keen to understand is how much -when it's working right - does the testing system catch? Is it 50%, 70%, 90%? How many hidden cases are there relative to March? I saw some estimates for other nations that reckoned they were only catching 10% of cases back then (and their testing was better than ours, then) Frustrating to see it happening like this. If the testing system wasn't backing up, I imagine the Government might be a tad more relaxed. It might not be furlough, but some version of the German work light scheme? Can't imagine UK Gov will be keen to see trading stop altogether. Reduced business hours, plus no household socialising and a reintroduction of the 5 mile limit is as severe as they would probably want to go. Edited September 18, 2020 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John MacLean Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: I didn't claim there were "hoards." You, however, made out that people asking for tighter restrictions didn't really exist. No I didn't. Indeed I make no reference at all to people asking for tighter restrictions. I asked where the hoards of people "active calling" for a second Lockdown were. It's strange that you don't recall that, given that you replied directly to that post. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 1 minute ago, renton said: some version of the German work light scheme? Arbeit mecht...? That was something else, carry on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John MacLean Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 23 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: I'm quite happy that it isn't a threat to public health, yes. The evidence you used to support that theory you are now casting doubt over to, err, support the same theory. If that sounds confusing that's because it is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 We are looking at something akin to another lockdown, even if its only 2-4 weeks, because our test and trace system is a fucking shambles. Other countries managed to use the pause in the spread of the virus resulting from the lockdown to develop their systems, we appear to have achieved f**k all. The fact that everyone knew when the schools and universities were returning and no effort appears to have been made to ramp up capacity is laughable. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Aladdin said: We are looking at something akin to another lockdown, even if its only 2-4 weeks, because our test and trace system is a fucking shambles. Other countries managed to use the pause in the spread of the virus resulting from the lockdown to develop their systems, we appear to have achieved f**k all. The fact that everyone knew when the schools and universities were returning and no effort appears to have been made to ramp up capacity is laughable. Government implementation of anything is invariably a shambles, a Tory government implementation is invariably a fūcking disaster. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Aldo Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 We had the longest lockdown in Europe which logic dictates should have bought us the biggest window to develop our testing system.As usual, the government have fucked it and it looks like Joe Public will be made to suffer the consequences in the form of yet another lockdown. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VladimirMooc Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said: I'm not arguing, I cba doing so as i've got enough to be getting on with. But I just don't see the point in going round in circles. Six million posts on this thread suggest you don’t have that much to be getting on with. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 We are looking at something akin to another lockdown, even if its only 2-4 weeks, because our test and trace system is a fucking shambles. Other countries managed to use the pause in the spread of the virus resulting from the lockdown to develop their systems, we appear to have achieved f**k all. The fact that everyone knew when the schools and universities were returning and no effort appears to have been made to ramp up capacity is laughable.Yup. What’s all the more frustrating from a Scottish standpoint is that we literally lived through the same thing in August and early September. Covid testing here peaked at 27,246 on September 2nd, three weeks after schools went back. On Monday August 10th, the day schools began to return, 7373 tests were carried out (and just over 5k on the 11th). This represents a pretty remarkable increase of 370% in demand for testing. And Dido Harding, Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock sit there and say with a straight face that the increase in demand was ‘unforeseen’? It genuinely defies belief. This is a f**k-up starting to look more like March every day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Paco said: Yup. What’s all the more frustrating from a Scottish standpoint is that we literally lived through the same thing in August and early September. Covid testing here peaked at 27,246 on September 2nd, three weeks after schools went back. On Monday August 10th, the day schools began to return, 7373 tests were carried out (and just over 5k on the 11th). This represents a pretty remarkable increase of 370% in demand for testing. And Dido Harding, Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock sit there and say with a straight face that the increase in demand was ‘unforeseen’? It genuinely defies belief. This is a f**k-up starting to look more like March every day. It has nothing to do with schools at all. Numerous greeting faced folk with two weans experts on here have advised as such. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Marshmallo said: It has nothing to do with schools at all. Numerous greeting faced folk with two weans experts on here have advised as such. TBF, that only shows that the levels of testing shot up to meet the number of just in case tests done by folk who's kids had a cough, not that the schools themselves are the major driver for the increase in positive cases. But yeah, it definitely put a strain on the test system. Edited September 18, 2020 by renton 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ingo ohne Flamingo Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Thereisalight.. said: I’m certainly dreading it. Ive had two shifts since lockdown in March. The month previous I buried my Dad. Grieving whilst unable to do or see anyone was incredibly tough. People may think I’m on here moaning about “wanting the football back”, but to me getting back to seeing live sport again was what was keeping me going. A release from depression brought on by a heartbreaking year. The thought of another lockdown when the days are getting shorter and the weather traditionally gets worse just fills me with dread I'm sure I've seen you post elsewhere, I think you are in the same industry as me albeit I'm not a Freelancer and thankfully I'm one of the lucky few who has been working albeit on the Virtual stuff. Our sector has received very little help except the Furlough scheme and the Freelancers have been shafted royally, the fact there was a "race for 10k" last week sums up the shambles that is both our governments. Also sad to hear about your loss, it is never easy but a year like this makes it worse, get through this and you'll get through anything. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 (edited) If Hancock says they know the false positive rate, why can't he just say what it is? It's clearly closer to 1% than 0% otherwise he'd be all over it. Our positive % is higher than in England, but is always expressed as a % of new people tested in the previous 24 hours, rather than the number of tests processed. Could a backlog be artificially increasing this figure slightly each day? Edited September 18, 2020 by Todd_is_God -6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 If Julia Hartley Brewer says it then it must be true 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 If Hancock says they know the false positive rate, why can't he just say what it is? It's clearly closer to 1% than 0% otherwise he'd be all over it. Our positive % is higher than in England, but is always expressed as a % of new people tested in the previous 24 hours, rather than the number of tests processed. Could a backlog be artificially increasing this figure slightly each day?Does that mean 1% of positive tests are false, or 1% of all tests give a false positive? If the latter then it’s very very bad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Donathan said: Does that mean 1% of positive tests are false, or 1% of all tests give a false positive? If the latter then it’s very very bad The false positive rate affects all tests. So if it was 1%, and there were 1.5% positive tests on a given day, 66% of them would be false positives -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 At last. Hartley-Brewer makes an appearance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Marshmallo said: If Julia Hartley Brewer says it then it must be true Unless maths is an opinion, it doesn't matter who says it. -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 I’m always open to considering alternative viewpoints, and an openness about PCR testing would be very welcome but Julia Hartley-Brewer screaming about 91% OF CASES ARE FALSE POSITIVES six months into a pandemic that’s killed nearly a million people can be safely fired into the sea. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1885 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 The false positive rate affects all tests. So if it was 1%, and there were 1.5% positive tests on a given day, 66% of them would be false positivesNumberwang 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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