Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, Willow Rosenberg said:

Would seem there's some posts gone and some kept.

This dotting game's a serious business.

[VladimirMooc]

17 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I see SAGE have produced a report on the indirect deaths caused by lockdown.

As an aside, their estimation of 1.4m direct deaths in England in a "do nothing" scenario is ludicrous tbh.

Presumably you highlighted the ludicrousness at the last SAGE meeting? Given your expertise I can only presume you’re a key member. 

[welshbairn]

44 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

Sorry to hear that, it's what I've been banging on about for months, the pretty much closure of NHS services is going to kill more people long term than Covid ever will.  Talking to colleagues from different health boards and at best some think it will take us five years to get back to pre covid waiting times and  efficiency for services, the less optimistic think that his has pretty much gubbed the nhs and it will never recover.  I've seen it firsthand and everyday we are now dealing in primary care with people who should have been dealt with months ago in a hospital setting.   Everyday is now a firefighting situation and it's shit incredibly frustrating, upsetting and stressful.  

Mentioned it before and it may be stupid, but I don't know why when they found out the containment measures were working after a few weeks and the hospitals weren't getting swamped Bergamo style, that they didn't just bung the Central Belt Covid patients in the Louisa Jordan and let the rest of the NHS run as normal, staffing permitting. And with the extra precautions like masks etc of course.

Edited August 9, 2020 by welshbairn

[Thistle_do_nicely]

1 hour ago, Miguel Sanchez said:

where is @Tynierose

Can add Uncle Sanchez to the list of people getting fucked by the hospitals shutting down - supposed to have a heart operation in March, now having a triple bypass tomorrow.

(sorry couldn't resist)

Hope it all goes smoothly for you.

[mishtergrolsch]

9 hours ago, Gaz said:

There is a massive pressure group called "UsForThem" who have been piling untold pressure on both WM and HR to get the schools back open. Indeed they have said that schools should not have been shut in the first place.

And within a month we'll have Schools and Further Education Institutions shutting down again because COVID will be rising exponentially once more.

The systems put in place to re open Schools etc are all well and good but the buildings aren't designed for social distancing or even one way systems to keep contact at a minimum. Some new schools now are built in mind for a falling population and are too small upon opening and alot the older buildings aren't fit for purpose either.

Then you've got the bairns!

Can't keep the Schools etc closed forever but I don't think many folk have thought this through.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

8 hours ago, VladimirMooc said:

Presumably you highlighted the ludicrousness at the last SAGE meeting? Given your expertise I can only presume you’re a key member. 

“The NHS will be stress free at the moment as all the beds as all the beds are empty”.

Main conclusion from the ONS:

While these negative health impacts of lockdown exceed the impacts of COVID-19 directly, they are much smaller than the negative impacts estimated for a scenario in which these measures are not in place; without these mitigations, the impact of direct COVID-19 deaths alone on both mortality and morbidity would be much higher – an estimated 439,000 excess deaths resulting from COVID-19, and 3,000,000 QALYs lost.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Melanius Mullarkey

[Bairnardo]

And within a month we'll have Schools and Further Education Institutions shutting down again because COVID will be rising exponentially once more.
The systems put in place to re open Schools etc are all well and good but the buildings aren't designed for social distancing or even one way systems to keep contact at a minimum. Some new schools now are built in mind for a falling population and are too small upon opening and alot the older buildings aren't fit for purpose either.
Then you've got the bairns!
Can't keep the Schools etc closed forever but I don't think many folk have thought this through.

Tories today trumpeting an imminent report which will state school transmission is very low.

[VladimirMooc]

25 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

“The NHS will be stress free at the moment as all the beds as all the beds are empty”.

Main conclusion from the ONS:

While these negative health impacts of lockdown exceed the impacts of COVID-19 directly, they are much smaller than the negative impacts estimated for a scenario in which these measures are not in place; without these mitigations, the impact of direct COVID-19 deaths alone on both mortality and morbidity would be much higher – an estimated 439,000 excess deaths resulting from COVID-19, and 3,000,000 QALYs lost.

Be prepared for Todd is God to refute the ONS’ findings by linking to a random Twitter account or a blog piece by some right wing columnist. 

[Bairnardo]

Soft Play centres opening up in Wales. Hopefully aswell as getting the schools open for my state sponsored childcare it wont be long before I can launch my kids into a soft play for 2 hours at a time and completely ignore their feral behaviour.

[madwullie]

56 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

2 hours ago, mishtergrolsch said:

And within a month we'll have Schools and Further Education Institutions shutting down again because COVID will be rising exponentially once more.
The systems put in place to re open Schools etc are all well and good but the buildings aren't designed for social distancing or even one way systems to keep contact at a minimum. Some new schools now are built in mind for a falling population and are too small upon opening and alot the older buildings aren't fit for purpose either.
Then you've got the bairns!
Can't keep the Schools etc closed forever but I don't think many folk have thought this through.

Tories today trumpeting an imminent report which will state school transmission is very low.

That would be good news, but I have trouble believing it. 

A study in the US  of an overnight camp showed extremely high transmission, while they kids were split into pods etc, and everyone had a test about just under a fortnight before going. Something like 50% of the atendees positive at the end of it. It's not like the virus enters a school building and says, oh calm down lads, school here, keep yourself to yourself. If the virus can transmit indoors relatively easy, and if children are susceptible to catching it, then there's no reason why schools wouldn't be the same. I'll look forward to seeing this study. 

BTW is there any further info on what will happen if a kid teats positive? How many people have to isolate etc etc? 

Edited August 10, 2020 by madwullie

[Marshmallo]

16 minutes ago, madwullie said:

BTW is there any further info on what will happen if a kid teats positive? How many people have to isolate etc etc? 

Nope. Going to be some laugh in about a week when it happens.

There'll probably be a way found to blame some footballers or people drinking pints.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

What if a child catches it whilst out drinking pints with footballers?

[Bairnardo]

That would be good news, but I have trouble believing it. 
A study in the US  of an overnight camp showed extremely high transmission, while they kids were split into pods etc, and everyone had a test about just under a fortnight before going. Something like 50% of the atendees positive at the end of it. It's not like the virus enters a school building and says, oh calm down lads, school here, keep yourself to yourself. If the virus can transmit indoors relatively easy, and if children are susceptible to catching it, then there's no reason why schools wouldn't be the same. I'll look forward to seeing this study. 
BTW is there any further info on what will happen if a kid teats positive? How many people have to isolate etc etc? 

I reckon they wont test kids unless they are symptomatic. Ask no questions hear no lies. Test and protect will continue, seeking to catch any adults infected by said kid and break the transmission that way IMO.

No requirement for distancing means that regardless of transmission levels which is a point of debate, they simply arent concerned about its spreading through kids, and it logically follows from that, that they intend to just catch it once it reaches an adult.

[Bairnardo]

What if a child catches it whilst out drinking pints with footballers?

Is this about Darren Mackie?

[throbber]

2 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

What if a child catches it whilst out drinking pints with footballers?

 

[ICTChris]

I think that if there’s a positive test of a pupil or staff member the school involved will be closed and deep cleaned. I’m not sure how long they’ll be shut for. I think that even if the management tried to keep the schools open a lot of parents would keep their kids off and some staff wouldn’t go in.

My son has been back at nursery for about a month and we’ve not heard anything about any infections resulting from any preschool child care so hopefully that’s a good omen, although clearly primary and secondary education are a different level to nurseries in terms of size and number of exposures.

[Bairnardo]

I think that if there’s a positive test of a pupil or staff member the school involved will be closed and deep cleaned. I’m not sure how long they’ll be shut for. I think that even if the management tried to keep the schools open a lot of parents would keep their kids off and some staff wouldn’t go in.

My son has been back at nursery for about a month and we’ve not heard anything about any infections resulting from any preschool child care so hopefully that’s a good omen, although clearly primary and secondary education are a different level to nurseries in terms of size and number of exposures.

I dont think they will close the schools again unless we reach the unchecked hospital threatening numbers of pre lockdown. Unless you mean closed for the rest of that day for a clean?

Closing the schools again just as furlough ends will result in colossal pressure to go back to that. I realise it doesnt neccesarily make sense, but that's how I think folk would react.

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

I remember the utter terror that happened back in the day when someone got nits at primary school, so I dread to think what a positive COVID test will do.

[Gaz]

9 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

I dont think they will close the schools again unless we reach the unchecked hospital threatening numbers of pre lockdown. Unless you mean closed for the rest of that day for a clean?

Closing the schools again just as furlough ends will result in colossal pressure to go back to that. I realise it doesnt neccesarily make sense, but that's how I think folk would react.

It's not going to be as simple as that.

I've used the example in this thread of a pupil being in class one morning and then the next again afternoon being found to have Covid. By then they've been in contact with 20 members of staff including teachers and auxilliary staff. That's 20 members of staff that need to go into self-isolation.

There are numbers of staff required in schools to meet legally-set teacher/pupil ratios. It could easily lead to a school shutting as there aren't enough staff to keep it open.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Gaz

[Bairnardo]

4 minutes ago, Gaz said:

It's not going to be as simple as that.

I've used the example in this thread of a pupil being in class one morning and then the next again afternoon being found to have Covid. By then they've been in contact with 20 members of staff including teachers and auxilliary staff. That's 20 members of staff that need to go into self-isolation.

There are numbers of staff required in schools to meet legally-set teacher/pupil ratios. It could easily lead to a school shutting as there aren't enough staff to keep it open.

Have you as teachers been told to wear masks/maintain 1 metre etc?

Since test and protect came along my work have basically, not in so many words told us that since you WILL be maintaining social distance at work, you WILL NOT name any of your colleagues should you be contacted by tracers. Pretty cynical right from the off, and in the current climate I expect you will face similar skullduggery from your employers.