Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

Another fireworks display bites the dust. I wonder how long it will take for the others to follow suit.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

16 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Touché

Although I would contest the "wildly extrapolating" part.

Extrapolating yes, but extrapolating data to fit a narrative is no different to what both WM and the SG are also doing. It's why the point of focus jumps from one particular statistic to another, depending which most favourably fits what they want to do at any given time.

Govts  don’t rely on statistical studies. You already know they have range of scientific experts which they also rely on. It’s important that scientific advisors continue to help guide and influence political decisions.

[Todd_is_God]

32 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

Govts  don’t rely on statistical studies. You already know they have range of scientific experts which they also rely on. It’s important that scientific advisors continue to help guide and influence political decisions.

Of course it is, but it's also important they back the right horse as different experts will, often, have differing views. Take the views of two epidemiologists in Neil Ferguson & Anders Tegnell as an example.

WM being influenced by Neil Ferguson was a huge mistake at a critical time, the effects of which they still cannot shake off.

He was wrong about 500,000 deaths here, and he was spectacularly wrong about 96,000 deaths in Sweden.

What is most damning about that, is that he has previous for being wildly wrong.

Tegnell, on the other hand, was right to dismiss Ferguson's model, and develop an alternative plan. Had they not done a similarly awful job as us in looking after their elderly in care homes they, like us, would be at least 50% better off in terms of deaths. Even without doing so, their excess deaths are lower than here, and their economy is in much better shape.

Scotland, having almost reached the end of the epidemic as a public health crisis, is on the verge of making a dreadful mistake by going all in on Devi Sridhar's pipe dream of achieving zero covid, without seemingly considering whether that is absolutely necessary, what impact wide open borders will have on its feasibility, and the longer term consequences on the economy, physical, and mental health of the population maintaining lockdown restrictions for as long as would be necessary to achieve that will cause.

Edited August 2, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

Anyway, I think i've made my views on this perfectly clear, and there is little value to the thread from me repeating them.

The sooner the thread is irrelevant the better for us all

[sophia]

4 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Scotland, having almost reached the end of the epidemic as a public health crisis, is on the verge of making a dreadful mistake by going all in on Devi Sridhar's pipe dream of achieving zero covid, without seemingly considering whether that is absolutely necessary, what impact wide open borders will have on its feasibility, and the longer term consequences on the economy, physical, and mental health of the population maintaining lockdown restrictions for as long as would be necessary to achieve that will cause.

This is indeed a terrible thing.

That the highly trained team of professionals would seemingly fail to notice our border with a neighbouring country and forget to carry out impact assessments is a scandal.

Thank goodness we have lone voices such as yourself beavering away in the wee small in the noble cause of righteous subjectivity.

[Donathan]

I still don't understand what happened in the Bergamo hospitals.
Judging by everywhere else it must have been a massive f**k up. It makes zero sense. 

I think what happened is that Italy was registering a daily peak in case numbers that was of similar magnitude to that in the UK, but almost entirely concentrated in one region whereas the UK’s outbreak was spread relatively evenly across the country. That means that the health system in Bergamo was completely overwhelmed whereas the UK NHS managed to just about stay within capacity thanks to cancelling routine stuff and farming folk out to care homes

[D.A.F.C]

I think what happened is that Italy was registering a daily peak in case numbers that was of similar magnitude to that in the UK, but almost entirely concentrated in one region whereas the UK’s outbreak was spread relatively evenly across the country. That means that the health system in Bergamo was completely overwhelmed whereas the UK NHS managed to just about stay within capacity thanks to cancelling routine stuff and farming folk out to care homes

The nhs didn't cope, they just sent people into care homes to die.

[buchan30]

I still don't understand what happened in the Bergamo hospitals.
Judging by everywhere else it must have been a massive f**k up. It makes zero sense. 

May or may not be the reason, but a podcast called “we came to win” discuss what they call “the biological bomb”
Basically it centres around all the fans that went to the atalanta v valencia game in milan and the possibility there were infected people in that stadium and it spread like wildfire there. Those people then travelled back to bergamo and it just kicked off from there.
On the day of the match, there was only 1 confirmed case in bergamo.

[peasy23]

Reading this thread over the last couple of days is more dangerous than the virus.

[Gaz]

12 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

I'm sure one of our Italian based P&Bers said the region with the most cases wasn't the one with the most hospitalisations. 

 

[Jacksgranda]

13 hours ago, Thereisalight.. said:

No I won’t be taking it. Unless the gun to the head approach becomes a reality 

Maybe they'll just pull the trigger and save you making the decision.

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said:

Maybe they'll just pull the trigger and save you making the decision.

Oooooffft!

[101]

9 hours ago, Detournement said:

I still don't understand what happened in the Bergamo hospitals.

Judging by everywhere else it must have been a massive f**k up. It makes zero sense. 

From what I have read they didn't do must triaging and stuck everyone on a ventilator. Also they were hit earlier than the UK and US we had time to learn from their experience.

[renton]

9 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Of course it is, but it's also important they back the right horse as different experts will, often, have differing views. Take the views of two epidemiologists in Neil Ferguson & Anders Tegnell as an example.

WM being influenced by Neil Ferguson was a huge mistake at a critical time, the effects of which they still cannot shake off.

He was wrong about 500,000 deaths here, and he was spectacularly wrong about 96,000 deaths in Sweden.

What is most damning about that, is that he has previous for being wildly wrong.

Tegnell, on the other hand, was right to dismiss Ferguson's model, and develop an alternative plan. Had they not done a similarly awful job as us in looking after their elderly in care homes they, like us, would be at least 50% better off in terms of deaths. Even without doing so, their excess deaths are lower than here, and their economy is in much better shape.

Scotland, having almost reached the end of the epidemic as a public health crisis, is on the verge of making a dreadful mistake by going all in on Devi Sridhar's pipe dream of achieving zero covid, without seemingly considering whether that is absolutely necessary, what impact wide open borders will have on its feasibility, and the longer term consequences on the economy, physical, and mental health of the population maintaining lockdown restrictions for as long as would be necessary to achieve that will cause.

Wait, wasn't Ferguson's Imperial group predicting 250,000 deaths of the government did nothing? So it follows that having done something (i.e. lockdown) that of course we wouldn't be anywhere near that number. Also worth noting that another group at the London School of Tropical Medicine came up with similar figures (think you can find it in this link: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/)

End of the day, the UK is not Sweden and what models well for one does not necessarily model well for another.

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, renton said:

Wait, wasn't Ferguson's Imperial group predicting 250,000 deaths of the government did nothing? So it follows that having done something (i.e. lockdown) that of course we wouldn't be anywhere near that number. Also worth noting that another group at the London School of Tropical Medicine came up with similar figures (think you can find it in this link: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/)

End of the day, the UK is not Sweden and what models well for one does not necessarily model well for another.

Activating that get out clause for a ridiculous model might stand up to more scrutiny had he not later said that if Sweden didn't lock down too, they would see 96,000 deaths by June.

Like his previous models, he was a mile out here too.

[VladimirMooc]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Activating that get out clause for a ridiculous model might stand up to more scrutiny had he not later said that if Sweden didn't lock down too, they would see 96,000 deaths by June.

Like his previous models, he was a mile out here too.

Given you’re also a public health academic at least you’ll be able to call him out via peer-reviewed medical journals rather than on a Scottish football forum, eh? I’m sure the epidemiological community are breathlessly awaiting your contribution to the field. 

Edited August 3, 2020 by VladimirMooc

[WhiteRoseKillie]

10 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Touché

Although I would contest the "wildly extrapolating" part.

Extrapolating yes, but extrapolating data to fit a narrative is no different to what both WM and the SG are also doing. It's why the point of focus jumps from one particular statistic to another, depending which most favourably fits what they want to do at any given time.

Of course you would. To conflate your desperation to fit available stats or cherry-pick articles to fit with what either Government (or, in all honesty, most Governments, given your running commentary on almost every country's response) with the work of trained and experienced professionals employed by those Governments is laughable*.

You're spending more time on this thread than I and a few others ever did on the BRALT, but you continually fail to tell us why we should take you more seriously than the likes of magee and 8mileBU - or me. That we do know you're a climate change sceptic does not, in all honesty, inspire confidence in your other opinions.

* Not that these people are infallible, of course - and they would never claim to be. This simply makes your insistence in your take being simple common sense all the more ridiculous.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

51 minutes ago, 101 said:

From what I have read they didn't do must triaging and stuck everyone on a ventilator. Also they were hit earlier than the UK and US we had time to learn from their experience.

Something that hasn't really helped the clown posse running the country, in all fairness.

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, VladimirMooc said:

Given you’re also a public health academic at least you’ll be able to call him out via peer-reviewed medical journals rather than on a Scottish football forum, eh? I’m sure the epidemiological community are breathlessly awaiting your contribution to the field. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8327641/Coronavirus-modelling-Professor-Neil-Ferguson-branded-mess-experts.html

I assume these experts casting doubt on it are also wrong.

"Competing scientists' research - whose models produced vastly different results - has been largely discarded"

They backed the wrong horse.

[welshbairn]

32 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Activating that get out clause for a ridiculous model might stand up to more scrutiny had he not later said that if Sweden didn't lock down too, they would see 96,000 deaths by June.

Like his previous models, he was a mile out here too.

Sweden did pretty well lock down too, but on a mainly voluntary basis apart from closing down all secondary schools etc.

Edited August 3, 2020 by welshbairn