Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ICTChris]

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/

[Thereisalight..]

Just now, welshbairn said:

So will you take it after other people have proved it safe by voluntarily testing it, if it means you can go on holiday and stuff?

No I won’t be taking it. Unless the gun to the head approach becomes a reality 

[Todd_is_God]

 

[madwullie]

21 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

I’ve said on at least 3 occasions on here that I’m not an antivaxxer by any stretch of the imagination. 

But you've got as yet undefined concerns about Bill Gates' involvement? I don't think it's unreasonable for people to draw conclusions from that, given the theories spread by space cadets that have similar concerns. 

[Mark Connolly]

I can't think of a good reason why any sane person wouldn't block Murdo Fraser on twitter

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

No I won’t be taking it. Unless the gun to the head approach becomes a reality 

 

20 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

I’ve said on at least 3 occasions on here that I’m not an antivaxxer by any stretch of the imagination. 

Bit confused here. Vaccines do more than anything to build up herd immunity and killing it off, but you won't help in that because you're young and immortal?

[madwullie]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

 

Bit confused here. Vaccines do more than anything to build up herd immunity and killing it off, but you won't help in that because you're young and immortal?

Will moan the arse off us at the outrage of being unable to get to a moderately distant shop to buy extremely specific vegetarian goods, yet won't do his bit to contribute to those hellish, life limiting restrictions being lifted. 

[Thereisalight..]

6 minutes ago, madwullie said:

But you've got as yet undefined concerns about Bill Gates' involvement? I don't think it's unreasonable for people to draw conclusions from that, given the theories spread by space cadets that have similar concerns. 

That was a flippant remark. My concerns unlimately have nothing to do with Gates being involved and more the rush at which it’s been developed and without years of checks

6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

 

Bit confused here. Vaccines do more than anything to build up herd immunity and killing it off, but you won't help in that because you're young and immortal?

As I said yesterday, I don’t go and pay and get the flu jab. I may well get the flu and kill off the elderly by spreading it to them but nobody would pour scorn on me for not getting the flu vaccine 

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Thereisalight.. said:

That was a flippant remark. My concerns unlimately have nothing to do with Gates being involved and more the rush at which it’s been developed and without years of checks

As I said yesterday, I don’t go and pay and get the flu jab. I may well get the flu and kill off the elderly by spreading it to them but nobody would pour scorn on me for not getting the flu vaccine 

This isn't the flu. You'll probably be back of the queue for this too though, so I wouldn't worry too much. 

[Thereisalight..]

11 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

This isn't the flu. You'll probably be back of the queue for this too though, so I wouldn't worry too much. 

I know it’s not the flu, but it’s as deadly to the elderly as flu is...and as dangerous to me as the flu

[Stellaboz]

It's a pathetic virus to be fair. Shitty wee version of the flu in most cases.

[Todd_is_God]

https://medium.com/@staceyrudin/superstition-in-the-pigeon-can-lockdowns-really-stop-death-62bf3bc885a0

Contains this interesting paragraph

"Perhaps Ferguson never believed the world’s most powerful governments would take his predictions seriously. The world had not acted on his past predictions, so maybe he expected more of the same. This time, however, the media — breathlessly reporting on hospital overflow in Northern Italy; bolstered by fear-driven groupthink on social media —had created the perfect environment for his paper to flourish."

[Turkmenbashi]

33 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

https://medium.com/@staceyrudin/superstition-in-the-pigeon-can-lockdowns-really-stop-death-62bf3bc885a0

Contains this interesting paragraph

"Perhaps Ferguson never believed the world’s most powerful governments would take his predictions seriously. The world had not acted on his past predictions, so maybe he expected more of the same. This time, however, the media — breathlessly reporting on hospital overflow in Northern Italy; bolstered by fear-driven groupthink on social media —had created the perfect environment for his paper to flourish."

I think it's the line beforehand which caused people to support lockdown, it certainly changed my mind. And hospitals were overflowing in Northern Italy, that is a justifiable reason for fear and a fact.
And the fact every other country in Europe except Sweden and Belarus was already under lockdown. 

[Todd_is_God]

Australia essentially showing that if you clamp down early, and at the same time inadvertantly prevent people catching and dying from flu and other ILI over the traditional flu season, another pneumonia causing respiratory virus will take them out instead. Normally this wouldn't be a huge problem as there wouldn't be such a virus waiting to strike, but with Covid-19 existing, they have made a fatal mistake in not building a level of resistance within their population, and the inevitable is now happening.

Here in the UK there is another factor that I don't think anyone has highlighted. The UK flu season in 2019/20 was extremely mild in terms of influenza deaths (and 18/19 was equally mild). Given those who are dying from Covid 19 are essentially the same demographic at most risk of severe illness or death from flu, I can't help but feel that if covid had arrived in 2018 (following the severe 17/18 flu season) rather than 2020 then the UK death total would be drastically different.

As these people have already died, if that theory holds any water, it should also mean that not only should covid deaths going forward remain very low, but that this year's flu season should also be extremely mild.

Edited August 2, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Melanius Mullarkey]

1 hour ago, Turkmenbashi said:

I think it's the line beforehand which caused people to support lockdown, it certainly changed my mind. And hospitals were overflowing in Northern Italy, that is a justifiable reason for fear and a fact.
And the fact every other country in Europe except Sweden and Belarus was already under lockdown. 

This. The media have a far far far bigger influence (directly) on government policy (now and since forever) than fucking Twitter.

Another cherry picked paragraph though.

[Detournement]

I still don't understand what happened in the Bergamo hospitals.

Judging by everywhere else it must have been a massive f**k up. It makes zero sense. 

[Todd_is_God]

16 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

This. The media have a far far far bigger influence (directly) on government policy (now and since forever) than fucking Twitter.

Another cherry picked paragraph though.

I'm hardly going to quote the whole fucking thing. Nor was the point in linking the article centered around social media.

At the same time It's completely naïve to believe that social media has not now reached a stage where it's userbase is capable of collectively influencing decision making at the very top of any and all organisations.

You know that, though.

Edited August 2, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

Here is a paper exploring a potential link between mild flu seasons and higher covid deaths

Being a preliminary exploration it's far from conclusive, but it does suggest a reasonably significant link exists and that deeper study into it is worthwhile.

wp2003.pdf

Edited August 2, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Melanius Mullarkey]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I'm hardly going to quote the whole fucking thing. Nor was the point in linking the article centered around social media.

At the same time It's completely naïve to believe that social media has not now reached a stage where it's userbase is capable of collectively influencing decision making at the very top of any and all organisations.

You know that, though.

You’re the master of cherry picking parts of articles and using some basic knowledge of statistics (whilst wildly extrapolating to fit a narrative). 

You know that, though.

 

[Todd_is_God]

8 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

You’re the master of cherry picking parts of articles and using some basic knowledge of statistics (whilst wildly extrapolating to fit a narrative). 

You know that, though.

Touché

Although I would contest the "wildly extrapolating" part.

Extrapolating yes, but extrapolating data to fit a narrative is no different to what both WM and the SG are also doing. It's why the point of focus jumps from one particular statistic to another, depending which most favourably fits what they want to do at any given time.

Edited August 2, 2020 by Todd_is_God