Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Really not sure why schools weren't brought back first (which they have done in a few countries). Without schools going back , some people can't go back to work, children miss out on education etc. 

People can't go back to work because everyone is losing their mind about a minute amount of people testing positive for a virus which, in all likelihood, will do them little to no harm. The ridiculous death reporting is driving fear among the public as they genuinely believe 100s are still dying from it every day.

I don't understand why the continuing decline in hospital admissions, people in ICU and deaths is being ignored, and focus instead being placed on cases likely only identified through contact tracing.

These cases would have been present back in March etc too, we just didn't look for them.

There is seemingly a complete refusal from governments to even entertain exploring the notion that it might be pretty much over as a health crisis.

It's not a seasonal flu, so why are all the predictive models of waves etc treating it as though it is? The first SARS outbreak lasted about 8 months in total, given that this is related to SARS, I don't understand the complete resistance to the idea this might also stop being a problem in a similar timeframe.

[Todd_is_God]

22 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Some figures on local infection rates in England
 

Those graphs really do not support the need for localised restrictions.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

[VladimirMooc]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

People can't go back to work because everyone is losing their mind about a minute amount of people testing positive for a virus which, in all likelihood, will do them little to no harm. The ridiculous death reporting is driving fear among the public as they genuinely believe 100s are still dying from it every day.

I don't understand why the continuing decline in hospital admissions, people in ICU and deaths is being ignored, and focus instead being placed on cases likely only identified through contact tracing.

These cases would have been present back in March etc too, we just didn't look for them.

There is seemingly a complete refusal from governments to even entertain exploring the notion that it might be pretty much over as a health crisis.

It's not a seasonal flu, so why are all the predictive models of waves etc treating it as though it is? The first SARS outbreak lasted about 8 months in total, given that this is related to SARS, I don't understand the complete resistance to the idea this might also stop being a problem in a similar timeframe.

“I don’t understand” is definitely the key phrase in this entire post IMO. 

[Todd_is_God]

8 minutes ago, VladimirMooc said:

“I don’t understand” is definitely the key phrase in this entire post IMO. 

I understand perfectly.

In the not too distant future, students will be learning about how countries all over the world hit the self destruct button, by shutting down their economies over a virus that wasn't anywhere near as deadly as they thought, and then compounded their error by stifling their recovery by maintaining restrictions long after the "health crisis" period was over, and the real health crisis that was created as a result.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Steven W]

Russia planning on mass vaccination in October. (Sure I read that earlier)

Of course, because it's Russia the narrative in the media is they're doing it too early.

That may of course be the case, but in any event it gives encouragement on the vaccine front for us all.

[101]

8 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Russia planning on mass vaccination in October. (Sure I read that earlier)

Of course, because it's Russia the narrative in the media is they're doing it too early.

That may of course be the case, but in any event it gives encouragement on the vaccine front for us all.

They completed human trials the other week. Mass production and administration will be the tricky bit. 

Hopefully they get it sorted and we can learn from how they do it - I imagine we will get a load of squadies injecting the public when we get our vaccine.

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Russia planning on mass vaccination in October. (Sure I read that earlier)

Of course, because it's Russia the narrative in the media is they're doing it too early.

That may of course be the case, but in any event it gives encouragement on the vaccine front for us all.

This is good news, but the success of this should be observed with the caveat that cases (and deaths) there are already in decline

[Thereisalight..]

11 hours ago, Steven W said:

A quick Google search of "Covid vaccine" this morning, and things looking fairly positive on that front e.g. Fauci cautiously optimistic of one in place in the USA by the end of the year, among other similar timeframe stories.

In an unusual piece of UK government planning, we've already bought millions of doses of the Oxford university one, but I wonder if how it'll be administered has been given any thought. Also the administering of it presumably will be a devolved matter?

I imagine they would start with the oldest people and work down from there. But I wonder how long it would take to get through the whole population? I have zero knowledge of this, but in Scotland's case, I'd think a couple of months to get through us all?

Who knows. As I’ve said previously I’m far from being an anti vaxxer but I won’t be taking this. I don’t get the flu jag as im not in the at risk category and it’s the same for covid

edited to say (before someone else does) “but you could kill an oldie if you catch covid”. I could also kill an elderly person with the flu but I’m not a leper because I don’t get that jag

Edited August 1, 2020 by Thereisalight..

[Cosmic Joe]

27 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Who knows. As I’ve said previously I’m far from being an anti vaxxer but I won’t be taking this. I don’t get the flu jag as im not in the at risk category and it’s the same for covid

edited to say (before someone else does) “but you could kill an oldie if you catch covid”. I could also kill an elderly person with the flu but I’m not a leper because I don’t get that jag

Do you weigh up all decisions you make in life about how they benefit you? 

[Thereisalight..]

1 minute ago, Angusfifer said:

Do you weigh up all decisions you make in life about how they benefit you? 

Doesn’t everyone to a certain extent?

[madwullie]

31 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Who knows. As I’ve said previously I’m far from being an anti vaxxer but I won’t be taking this. I don’t get the flu jag as im not in the at risk category and it’s the same for covid

edited to say (before someone else does) “but you could kill an oldie if you catch covid”. I could also kill an elderly person with the flu but I’m not a leper because I don’t get that jag

You wouldn't be able to get the flu jag. 

[Billy Jean King]

People can't go back to work because everyone is losing their mind about a minute amount of people testing positive for a virus which, in all likelihood, will do them little to no harm. The ridiculous death reporting is driving fear among the public as they genuinely believe 100s are still dying from it every day.
I don't understand why the continuing decline in hospital admissions, people in ICU and deaths is being ignored, and focus instead being placed on cases likely only identified through contact tracing.
These cases would have been present back in March etc too, we just didn't look for them.
There is seemingly a complete refusal from governments to even entertain exploring the notion that it might be pretty much over as a health crisis.
It's not a seasonal flu, so why are all the predictive models of waves etc treating it as though it is? The first SARS outbreak lasted about 8 months in total, given that this is related to SARS, I don't understand the complete resistance to the idea this might also stop being a problem in a similar timeframe.

Why do you think any government would be treating this virus with such massive caution given the obvious consequences if, like you state, it's virtually harmless. There has to be a reason why all these medical experts and politicians are so wrong. What do you think that explanation is, why would any government wreck society as we knew it for no good reason ???

[Thereisalight..]

3 minutes ago, madwullie said:

You wouldn't be able to get the flu jag. 

I stated that 

[ICTChris]

A quarantined woman with no symptoms infected 71 people in a lift that she spent 60 seconds in

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-china-woman-spread-infection-lift-cdc-study-536107?__twitter_impression=true

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

1 minute ago, ICTChris said:

A quarantined woman with no symptoms infected 71 people in a lift that she spent 60 seconds in

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-china-woman-spread-infection-lift-cdc-study-536107?__twitter_impression=true

Must have been some size of lift.

[vikingTON]

5 hours ago, sparky88 said:

Really not sure why schools weren't brought back first (which they have done in a few countries). Without schools going back , some people can't go back to work, children miss out on education etc. 

Schools should go back last on the scientific basis that they're obvious, massive breeding grounds for any airborne/droplet/contact-spread virus. If the SG was fully committed to getting as close to zero Covid as possible (hence all the additional restrictions on daily life since the middle of May) then they would accept this fact. But instead they bottled it under fear of snippy parents and so it's back to useless halfway house measures we go.

Children can catch up on lost education by their teachers providing additional lessons when there is either a viable treatment in place or it has been fully eliminated within the community. Teachers as well as all the support staff needed to run a school shouldn't be shunted into a patently unsafe working environment right now just to provide a state childcare service for working parents.

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by vikingTON

[ICTChris]

French study on primary school children and the virus

https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-area/press-documents/covid-19-primary-schools-no-significant-transmission-among-children-students-teachers

[vikingTON]

3 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

French study on primary school children and the virus

https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-area/press-documents/covid-19-primary-schools-no-significant-transmission-among-children-students-teachers

It must be a sheer coincidence then that France's daily infection rate is now roughly four times higher than neighbouring Italy, after the former charged ahead with reopening schools early and the latter held off until September. Not to mention the countries in eastern and central Europe that closed public schools within days of community transmission being established and somehow emerged from the spring outbreak with ten times' fewer cases than 'business as usual' clown-car outfits like the UK.

If social distancing and good hygiene are the supposedly essential society-level behaviour to combatting a disease then you don't chuck 20-odd five year olds in the same room for 30 hours per week because neither of those things are going to happen.

[Todd_is_God]

2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

7 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

People can't go back to work because everyone is losing their mind about a minute amount of people testing positive for a virus which, in all likelihood, will do them little to no harm. The ridiculous death reporting is driving fear among the public as they genuinely believe 100s are still dying from it every day.
I don't understand why the continuing decline in hospital admissions, people in ICU and deaths is being ignored, and focus instead being placed on cases likely only identified through contact tracing.
These cases would have been present back in March etc too, we just didn't look for them.
There is seemingly a complete refusal from governments to even entertain exploring the notion that it might be pretty much over as a health crisis.
It's not a seasonal flu, so why are all the predictive models of waves etc treating it as though it is? The first SARS outbreak lasted about 8 months in total, given that this is related to SARS, I don't understand the complete resistance to the idea this might also stop being a problem in a similar timeframe.

Why do you think any government would be treating this virus with such massive caution given the obvious consequences if, like you state, it's virtually harmless. There has to be a reason why all these medical experts and politicians are so wrong. What do you think that explanation is, why would any government wreck society as we knew it for no good reason ???

A few reasons tbh.

Firstly, the model from our friend Neil Ferguson that suggested Covid-19 deaths would equal a year's worth of natural death. Clearly that would be unacceptable. This, coupled with the initial wave of hospitalisations and deaths as the virus was introduced to a fully susceptible population, caused panic. The real amount of deaths is likely to end up around one month's natural deaths.

Secondly, the overestimation of the R0 value which caused an inaccurate calculation of the proportion on people required for herd immunity. It was thought to need 80%. In reality around 15-20% is enough.

Thirdly, and for me this is a huge factor, the prevelance of social media. If this virus had arrived in 2000 (or even 2010) there would have been no lockdown. 

Lastly, not all of the medical experts are wrong. We just only get to hear from the ones who's views agree with what the government want to hear. It isn't hard to find those who disagree, but those with differing views get dismissed as wrong, and countries like Sweden are discussed as being abject failures at handling it, despite all the evidence pointing to this not being the case.

You aren't telling me that anyone in the UK would not swap the last 20 weeks of life here for the last 20 weeks in Sweden (never mind the fact the next 20 are unlikely to be much fun here either), and they have reached pretty much the end with a death toll of 120 per million less.

The Govts have made an arse of it, and they lack the courage to admit that they have dumped tens of thousands onto the unemployment scrapheap, caused many businesses to fail, and created a health crisis timebomb unnecessarily, on the back of flawed scientific models.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Todd_is_God