Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Honest_Man#1]

16 hours ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

Universities won’t be opening “as normal” soon. They’ve literally been working out how to do this since March.

It’s the accommodation which would cause any potential outbreaks. Plenty of work going on to minimise it but also plenty of examples of  types of buildings that will be used that really are conducive to an virus spreading tbh.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 

There is absolutely zero chance that experienced data analysts are making an ‘error’ like that. It’s deliberate.

 

I’ve no idea why, right enough. It’s impossible to see any gain. If we’re being generous, perhaps the government can’t agree on a timeframe that positive test and death x days later means no Covid death, so everyone is included for now and we’ll have a large recalculation of the numbers at some stage. But I find that unlikely.

 

I also presume Scotland and the other devolved countries are managing just fine as despite the smaller populations, the odd person who tested positive in April would be dying now and we aren’t seeing that filtering through. Much like saying how many people get tested in a day, which is a number the devolved countries manage no hassle but is allegedly impossible in England.

 

I can’t stress enough these aren’t innocent errors. Impossible. There’s a reason.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

 

One of the reasons we do get errors is because they make basic assumptions that are not necessarily correct.

 

Take the data on excess deaths - there are 3 ways of doing this:

 

To estimate the excess mortality we can use three different approaches to make comparisons:

 

1 The 5-year average (Doesn’t take account of any  changes in the population over time)

 

2 The linear trend using data back to 2010 (tries to fit the best average fit to all the past data)

 

3 The harmonic trend back to 2010 (tries to account for the patterns in disease occurrence)

 

The first method assumes the population makeup does not change - this is the method the ONS uses - it produces a UK figure that is higher than the other 2 methods (5.62% more than method 2; 5.08% more than method 2). Method 1 is fine if you are looking at an individual country's data but can be misinterpreted if you start trying to make country-to-country comparisons.

 

[madwullie]

Dunno if anyone saw the report on the sleepover camp in Georgia. Goes some way to putting the idea that kids don't spread / don't really catch covid. 

Obviously someone needs to be infected for something like this to happen, and you'd hope that the far lower infection rate here would make it much less likely similar was to happen here when the schools open. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/31/georgia-children-covid-outbreak/%3foutputType=amp

 

But like @Gaz I think it was siad earlier in the thread, what does actually happen if a child in your class is positive - who all needs to isolate, and for how long. I don't really think it's feasible just to say it doesn't matter as much because it's a school - something needs to be put in place in case this happens. 

[Steven W]

A quick Google search of "Covid vaccine" this morning, and things looking fairly positive on that front e.g. Fauci cautiously optimistic of one in place in the USA by the end of the year, among other similar timeframe stories.

In an unusual piece of UK government planning, we've already bought millions of doses of the Oxford university one, but I wonder if how it'll be administered has been given any thought. Also the administering of it presumably will be a devolved matter?

I imagine they would start with the oldest people and work down from there. But I wonder how long it would take to get through the whole population? I have zero knowledge of this, but in Scotland's case, I'd think a couple of months to get through us all?

[Bairnardo]

A quick Google search of "Covid vaccine" this morning, and things looking fairly positive on that front e.g. Fauci cautiously optimistic of one in place in the USA by the end of the year, among other similar timeframe stories.
In an unusual piece of UK government planning, we've already bought millions of doses of the Oxford university one, but I wonder if how it'll be administered has been given any thought. Also the administering of it presumably will be a devolved matter?
I imagine they would start with the oldest people and work down from there. But I wonder how long it would take to get through the whole population? I have zero knowledge of this, but in Scotland's case, I'd think a couple of months to get through us all?

They managed to text everyone that needed to shield. Start with them. And care homes.

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, madwullie said:

Dunno if anyone saw the report on the sleepover camp in Georgia. Goes some way to putting the idea that kids don't spread / don't really catch covid. 

Obviously someone needs to be infected for something like this to happen, and you'd hope that the far lower infection rate here would make it much less likely similar was to happen here when the schools open. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/31/georgia-children-covid-outbreak/%3foutputType=amp

 

But like @Gaz I think it was siad earlier in the thread, what does actually happen if a child in your class is positive - who all needs to isolate, and for how long. I don't really think it's feasible just to say it doesn't matter as much because it's a school - something needs to be put in place in case this happens. 

It's just going to be let rip, imo. The last 4 months have probably been a waste of time.

[Jacksgranda]

18 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

38 minutes ago, Steven W said:

A quick Google search of "Covid vaccine" this morning, and things looking fairly positive on that front e.g. Fauci cautiously optimistic of one in place in the USA by the end of the year, among other similar timeframe stories.
In an unusual piece of UK government planning, we've already bought millions of doses of the Oxford university one, but I wonder if how it'll be administered has been given any thought. Also the administering of it presumably will be a devolved matter?
I imagine they would start with the oldest people and work down from there. But I wonder how long it would take to get through the whole population? I have zero knowledge of this, but in Scotland's case, I'd think a couple of months to get through us all?

They managed to text everyone that needed to shield. Start with them. And care homes.

They won't need as much for them now...

[mathematics]

22 hours ago, Hard Graft said:

With Universities and HEI's opening soon has the First Minister considered what impact approx 50,000 students will have on the virus? There will be accommodations etc to be considered. 

What tests. quarantines etc will be put in place for these students arriving in Scotland or will be just winging it?

Will be online learning for most students. University and HEI footfall will be decimated. International student numbers will be decimated.

[ICTChris]

On the subject of data fiddling, apparently Spain have changed their recording methods so that only deaths that are recorded on the day they happen are included in the official “died of covid” stats

[NotThePars]

It’s the accommodation which would cause any potential outbreaks. Plenty of work going on to minimise it but also plenty of examples of  types of buildings that will be used that really are conducive to an virus spreading tbh.

My ma works in students hall in Glasgow and was told to prepare for redundancy but they’ve had an intake of 600 students which is apparently a strong turnout ? Dunno how much fun student halls will be if there’s no clubs for the first semester but maybe folk will just get smashed on site for 3 months instead.

[Todd_is_God]

32 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

It's just going to be let rip, imo. The last 4 months have probably been a waste of time.

This is probably true.

A lockdown to prevent the NHS being overrun was feasible, and it was achieved rather quickly.

Lockdown was never intended to eliminate the virus, probably because it should have been obvious it was impossible. No one in the government (or anywhere for that matter) was suggesting that was going to happen back in February or March.

It's no surprise that the one place that banned mass gatherings, advised over 70s to shield and advised on social distancing but kept everything else open is the one place which appears closest to being out the other end, and at least risk of a resurgence.

What the best idea for the UK to do is to keep a ban on mass gatherings, strongly advise elderly people to shield, continue with enhanced hygiene awareness, ensure social distancing and open everything else.

We can lockdown again if the NHS looks like being over run but, tbh, with the mitigations and awareness in place I don't think we'll get anywhere near that.

It's time to stop pretending we can snuff it out.

[Honest_Man#1]

16 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

My ma works in students hall in Glasgow and was told to prepare for redundancy but they’ve had an intake of 600 students which is apparently a strong turnout ? Dunno how much fun student halls will be if there’s no clubs for the first semester but maybe folk will just get smashed on site for 3 months instead.

 

Yes part of my work involves accommodation and from the University counterparts they’re expecting large numbers again. Probably not 100% full like usual, but certainly higher than the doomsday ‘nobody will go to University next year and they’ll all go bust’ expected figures from the start of the pandemic.

[Jacksgranda]

18 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

This is probably true.

A lockdown to prevent the NHS being overrun was feasible, and it was achieved rather quickly.

Lockdown was never intended to eliminate the virus, probably because it should have been obvious it was impossible. No one in the government (or anywhere for that matter) was suggesting that was going to happen back in February or March.

It's no surprise that the one place that banned mass gatherings, advised over 70s to shield and advised on social distancing but kept everything else open is the one place which appears closest to being out the other end, and at least risk of a resurgence.

What the best idea for the UK to do is to keep a ban on mass gatherings, strongly advise elderly people to shield, continue with enhanced hygiene awareness, ensure social distancing and open everything else.

We can lockdown again if the NHS looks like being over run but, tbh, with the mitigations and awareness in place I don't think we'll get anywhere near that.

It's time to stop pretending we can snuff it out.

This will be the way forward, up to those who have been shielding, e.g myself wife & daughter , to continue to be sensible.

Myself and my wife are in a bit of a quandary about our daughter when her day centre reopens whether to let her go back or not. On the one hand she misses her friends and activities but on the other most of the clients are in the vulnerable category - as is she - and we don't want her catching it in there and bringing it home. Or taking something into it, either. She is prone to upset stomachs and when she has one we don't send her in as that could be very serious for some of the other clients.

[philpy]

One thing pissing me off is seeing masks being discarded everywhere. Put them in a bin you manky c***s!! 

[madwullie]

50 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

On the subject of data fiddling, apparently Spain have changed their recording methods so that only deaths that are recorded on the day they happen are included in the official “died of covid” stats

I think they did that a month or so ago. If you find a decent graph its glaringly obvious which day they started doing this

[Todd_is_God]

18 cases today. 0 deaths again, and someone has left ICU.

[Todd_is_God]

Only 4 NHS England deaths recorded today, and 2 in Wales.

As they did up here, deaths in England are dropping.

Be interesting to see how many people who tested positive months ago and have since died of other causes (as many of the PHE numbers are at this stage) are announced today.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

Only 4 NHS England deaths recorded today, and 2 in Wales.

As they did up here, deaths in England are dropping.

Be interesting to see how many people who tested positive months ago and have since died of other causes (as many of the PHE numbers are at this stage) are announced today.

74

[sparky88]

5 hours ago, MixuFruit said:

Haha

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/01/pubs-england-close-control-coronavirus-adviser-graham-medley

Really not sure why schools weren't brought back first (which they have done in a few countries). Without schools going back , some people can't go back to work, children miss out on education etc. 

[ICTChris]

Some figures on local infection rates in England