Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, VladimirMooc said:

Genuine question: what do you do for a living?

If it isn’t ‘public health specialist’ have you considered a career change? Seems to be you know better than the accumulated intelligence of the Scottish Government, NHS Scotland and Public Health Scotland. It’s a shame to waste your natural flair for public health (and economic) analysis and insight on a Scottish football forum IMO. 

The situation we are in in Scotland is not ideal. The SG are quite clear that they wish to eliminate the disease, and are taking steps to try to attain this.

The problem they have is that the purse strings to fund that strategy for an extended period are held by a government in a different country, with a very different approach.

At some point that will become a problem.

[Detournement]

8 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

Genuinely idk, where does the power reside over something like the nationalisation of care homes or who gets the contracts to run them? Cause if it resides at Holyrood then even the shoddy running of them ultimately comes back to the government.

 

That seems totally obvious but quite a few people on here are unwilling to acknowledge it. 

 

 

[VladimirMooc]

10 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The situation we are in in Scotland is not ideal. The SG are quite clear that they wish to eliminate the disease, and are taking steps to try to attain this.

The problem they have is that the purse strings to fund that strategy for an extended period are held by a government in a different country, with a very different approach.

At some point that will become a problem.

Cool m8. It’s just it seems that your main contribution to this entire thread has been to downplay the entire thing and criticise the SG despite them clearly doing a good job of driving down infections. Which itself acts as proof of the effectiveness of their approach, rather than (as your take seems to be) proof of the fact that the measures still in place are in some way unnecessary. 

That’s not to say there is not legitimate criticism to be made of the SG for aspects of the way they’ve handled the whole crisis (e.g. the situation in care homes). But your armchair epidemiological and, now economic, analysis is quite clearly - in the round - utter drivel. 

[The Moonster]

2 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

More lecturing fear mongering today.

Consistant if nothing else.

 

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

 From what BJ said a week or so ago, they plan on having little to no restrictions remaining by 1st November.

Why take what BJ said a week ago? 4 hours ago he has warned of "signs of a second wave" and warned that tougher restrictions might be needed if it reached here. For weeks you've been ripping the piss out of "second wavers" and sticking the boot into NS/SG every time they open their mouth, I was sure I'd log on here to see criticism levelled at BJ/WM but it's NS again taking the stick. Almost like you've got an axe to grind.

[Billy Jean King]

I think is unlikely they will be fully measure free, but, given the path they are heading down, I don't expect there will be any sectors still forced closed. I wouldn't be overly shocked if social distancing was relaxed in any public place so long as masks were worn, though.
I don't expect the JRS to be extended. And, even if it were to be, any business still not able to open would be unlikely to be able to afford the no doubt increased contributions they would be asked to make. I am absolutely certain, though, that it will not be extended purely for Scotland.
I am definitely concerned that the SG's cautious approach is underpinned by that safety net being there if needed.

I don't think they will extend the JRS either but I also don't think that will alter NS's thinking as I fully expect the likes of Gyms etc. to be reopening before it does. As you said yourself it's months away. Shielding this weekend, schools in a couple of weeks then give it a few weeks and on with Phase 4 long before the end of the JRS, all perfectly feasible and sensible.

[Bairnardo]

See if cases do start to kick up again as seems likely, how far backwards do we think we will go?

I cant see another lockdown requiring furlough etc. I think thats a fairly common opinion. I also dont see the schools being closed again. Again, I think most folk would agree.

So what do we do? I personally think they should just make foreign travel prohobitive until next spring. I also think any hint at a loss of control should lead to aggressive shielding being implemented.

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

See if cases do start to kick up again as seems likely, how far backwards do we think we will go?

I cant see another lockdown requiring furlough etc. I think thats a fairly common opinion. I also dont see the schools being closed again. Again, I think most folk would agree.

So what do we do? I personally think they should just make foreign travel prohobitive until next spring. I also think any hint at a loss of control should lead to aggressive shielding being implemented.

Copy the Swedish model.

[D.V.T.]

Didn’t Greater Glasgow and Clyde register 14 in a day on a Sunday recently? That didn’t seem to be a cluster so hopefully could be the same.

[Guest JTS98]

15 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

See if cases do start to kick up again as seems likely, how far backwards do we think we will go?

I cant see another lockdown requiring furlough etc. I think thats a fairly common opinion. I also dont see the schools being closed again. Again, I think most folk would agree.

So what do we do? I personally think they should just make foreign travel prohobitive until next spring. I also think any hint at a loss of control should lead to aggressive shielding being implemented.

Depends how aggressive you're prepared to be.

Closing the borders seems a no-brainer based on mounting evidence from around the world. People slip through quarantine cracks and clusters form out of that. We see that all over the world.

I'm no economist. I don't know what the comparative impact would be of a harsh as f**k one-month shutdown compared to limping on for months on end with lots of economic damage. But everyone staying the f**k away from other people for a month would pretty much do it.

The problem comes when other countries don't do that and you open the borders. Square one.

[VladimirMooc]

21 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Copy the Swedish model.

“The Swedish model” has resulted in lower rates of testing, higher numbers of cases and higher numbers of deaths with no discernible economic benefit or advantage.

If you want to adopt a model that involved locking old people in care homes and not allowing them to be treated in hospital then great. I’d rather we stuck with the approach in Scotland that appears to be driving down infections and deaths while allowing for a gradual opening up. 

Edited July 29, 2020 by VladimirMooc

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, VladimirMooc said:

If you want to adopt a model that involved locking old people in care homes and not allowing them to be treated in hospital then great.

You mean like here?

Swedish infections and deaths are also declining btw, without the need to fanny about with a gradual opening up.

Edited July 29, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[VladimirMooc]

10 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

You mean like here?

Swedish infections and deaths are also declining btw, without the need to fanny about with a gradual opening up.

Declining from a significantly higher peak than their neighbouring countries.

”Fanny about with a gradual opening up.” You really don’t know what you’re talking about, do you?

[Shandon Par]

Weegies to be banned from drinking to maintain order:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53584987

 

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, VladimirMooc said:

”Fanny about with a gradual opening up.” You really don’t know what you’re talking about, do you?

Are they humming and haw-ing about what to allow and when? No.

[engelbert_humperdink]

30 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

I've said it for months and it's been alluded to in the media, we are doing the health service irrepairiable damage by running with next to no normal services for such a long time.   The catch up just won't be possible and patients unfortunately are dying and are going to die due to waiting times and just not presenting for treatment in time.   Everyday now in general practice folk are starting to show up with things that they should have presented with months ago, the reasons given for not are amongst we didn't want to bother you, we were scared of coming out, we didn't know you were open.   Take into account the patients that should have been seen months ago in the hospital by specialist services that we have been trying to manage as best we can in priimary care then its going to be a bloody awful winter.  We're treading water.

One example is cancers where we are told the sooner you catch it the better the prognosis, we have patients that should seen under the urgent pathway in secondary care within two weeks after referral.  That's not happening so the fallout out will be...

Echo's for assessing heart failure were just binned for months, only gradually starting up as is fitting of pacemakers etc, now that there are so many more guidelines to jump through, how will they catch up and this is in all fields.    Take into account all the joint ops that haven't been done, the reduced theatre capacities etc then I really don't know how we will catch up.   The burden on mental health services that were quite frankly pish beforehand, well that's another disaster due to increased lelves of stress, anxiety, low mood, self harm, substance misuse.

I will give a wee example of a  case in my family, ?colorectal cancer, should have been seen for colonoscopy within 2/52, by the time it is actually done it will be 14 weeks from the referral, as a caveat the person has to isolate for two weeks before going in for the procedure and have a covid test also.  So in essence by the time the procedure is done it's nearly 3/12 since referral and increased risk of spread etc.   This is happening in several healthboards.

I feel passionatly that things should have been opened up healthcare wise much sooner than what has happened.  We will end up killing more people due to the reduced capacity in the NHS than due to Covid.

At the outbreak of this and bare in mind I was in the Covid assessment centre we were expecting a disaster of proportions not seen since for one hundred years,  it became apparent that the expected numbers weren't coming through and we learned more about controlling disease spread, interpreting the science etc.  There should have been a move to crank up a return to normality health service wise as soon as it was apparent that there was capacity, that the predictions of armageddon were not accurate and that critical care was not overran.    

We will just hav eto see how things pan out and hopefully I'm completely wrong and we do catch up, though I doubt that unfortunately.

 

 

 

Cancer deaths are going to shoot up unfortunately, it's only a matter of time. There is a huge difference between dying of covid and dying with covid19 present. I can understand people being cautious, but media outlets have a lot to answer for with the scaremongering and panic driven headlines that as you have mentioned have no doubt stopped people with symptoms going to get check ups. Why build a temoorary hospital then not use it, surely covid patients could be treated there and patients with other illnesses treated in hospital. Seems the whole of the country has had there covid19 blinkers on and ignored every other illness or ailment. It may help reduce deaths at the present time but at what cost. Cancer survival rates will be decreasing throughout Europe

[The Moonster]

4 minutes ago, Shandon Par said:

Weegies to be banned from drinking to maintain order:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53584987

 

Is drinking not always banned in public parks?

[John MacLean]

Bit frustrated at the BBC's reporting of the potential cluster of cases in what they describe as "the Glasgow area". 

A more accurate description is 14 cases in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board area which stretches way out beyond the boundaries of the city of Glasgow. 

Indeed the new Covid dashboard published by Public Health Scotland (and no I'm not going to start posting graphs and charts) would seem to reflect that. 

That would seem to suggest, if I am following things correctly,  that the 14 new cases in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde are are split between the local councils as follows: 

Inverclyde: 6

Glasgow City: 5

Renfrewshire: 2

East Dunbartonshire: 1

Will be interesting , well maybe, to see if the possible cluster is in just one of those council areas or spread across two or more. 

 

[Shandon Par]

3 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

Is drinking not always banned in public parks?

Not in Edinburgh. They should all just hop on the train through here. 

[engelbert_humperdink]

8 minutes ago, Shandon Par said:

Weegies to be banned from drinking to maintain order:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53584987

 

Here cometh the rise in 'empties'

[engelbert_humperdink]

Just now, Shandon Par said:

Not in Edinburgh. They should all just hop on the train through here. 

The water of leith walkway between Colinton and Slateford is a haven for drinkers I have noticed as I enjoy my evening walk with a medicinal smoke