Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Angusfifer said:

 

I mean. They are though.

[Dunfermline Don]

The PMs new Covid-19 rapid response team gets ready to go into action

[madwullie]

1 hour ago, bernardblack said:

Have they spotted why it’s so bad in Leicester?

Heard a report at lunchtime saying they were just looking into it but hadn't found any noticeable pattern or reason at that point. The Leicester mayor didn't even get the data till (the day before?) yesterday as the govt were slow for some reasonm

[D.A.F.C]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704
 

ffs

[Pcplum]

13 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704
 

ffs

This is all we need now.

[Rob1885]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704
 
ffs

new thread needed for this IMO

[Diamonds are Forever]

2 hours ago, Steven W said:

I said this morning 'wonder what the endgame is'.

A really scary thought

 

People seem to be completely under playing or ignoring the seasonality of this virus. Northern hemisphere countries were the worst hit February to April as they were coming out of winter. As the number of deaths falls across the north, the southern hemisphere countries now get hit as they move into winter - South American countries are the ones worst affected at the moment, Brazil are getting all the attention but in terms of deaths per population the likes of Peru and Chile are in line with them (despite varying degrees of lockdown). It seems similar to how Europe was affected in that there are slight variations between countries but a pretty uniform pattern across the continent. Australia and New Zealand seem to be the exception to this in the southern hemisphere as they managed to keep numbers so low to stop it becoming widespread, being island nations certainly helps with this (unless you are the UK obviously...). However for those countries in the south who didn't manage to prevent it spreading early on, they are all going to have to go through a wave of this. It also explains why countries in the north aren't seeing sudden rises in deaths when reducing lockdown. Some are seeing rises in cases (like the US) but deaths are still falling which shows either that the increase in cases is due to more testing, or the severity of the virus is decreasing, or both. The natural trend is for the virus to decline as summer approaches.

Obviously there are numerous other factors at play which affect it, but the fact it is seasonal means it will be almost a full year before the whole world has had the full extent of it during their 'weaker' season and a true comparison can be made globally of the impact. If we do ever get a 'second wave' (not small regional flare ups, but an actual repeat of 3 months ago or similar) it will be in the winter, not in the next few months.

To answer your point, there is no real end game, it's not just going to go away. Ideally we use the time from now until winter to get in place a proper strategy and iron out any issues with test and trace so we aren't shutting down areas of the country any time we get a small outbreak.

Edited June 29, 2020 by Diamonds are Forever

[Gordon EF]

55 minutes ago, Diamonds are Forever said:

 

People seem to be completely under playing or ignoring the seasonality of this virus. Northern hemisphere countries were the worst hit February to April as they were coming out of winter. As the number of deaths falls across the north, the southern hemisphere countries now get hit as they move into winter - South American countries are the ones worst affected at the moment, Brazil are getting all the attention but in terms of deaths per population the likes of Peru and Chile are in line with them (despite varying degrees of lockdown). It seems similar to how Europe was affected in that there are slight variations between countries but a pretty uniform pattern across the continent. Australia and New Zealand seem to be the exception to this in the southern hemisphere as they managed to keep numbers so low to stop it becoming widespread, being island nations certainly helps with this (unless you are the UK obviously...). However for those countries in the south who didn't manage to prevent it spreading early on, they are all going to have to go through a wave of this. It also explains why countries in the north aren't seeing sudden rises in deaths when reducing lockdown. Some are seeing rises in cases (like the US) but deaths are still falling which shows either that the increase in cases is due to more testing, or the severity of the virus is decreasing, or both. The natural trend is for the virus to decline as summer approaches.

Obviously there are numerous other factors at play which affect it, but the fact it is seasonal means it will be almost a full year before the whole world has had the full extent of it during their 'weaker' season and a true comparison can be made globally of the impact. If we do ever get a 'second wave' (not small regional flare ups, but an actual repeat of 3 months ago or similar) it will be in the winter, not in the next few months.

To answer your point, there is no real end game, it's not just going to go away. Ideally we use the time from now until winter to get in place a proper strategy and iron out any issues with test and trace so we aren't shutting down areas of the country any time we get a small outbreak.

That's a bit of a stretch. Firstly, we don't know the extent of the seasonality of Covid-19 so saying "the fact that it is seasonal" is nonsense.

It's warmer and more humid in Sao Paulo in June than it is in Edinburgh. So it can hardly be the traditional seasonality factors that's causing the difference. Also, the US is seeing rising rates smack bang in the middle of their summer.

There are so many other factors going on at the moment with countries being hit at different times, to different degrees and taking different approaches, it's absolutely wild to try and draw out these kinds of seasonality conclusions at the moment.

It seems a reasonable bet that there will be a seasonality to Covid-19 because that's what we see with similar viruses.

[Fullerene]

6 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

It's warmer and more humid in Sao Paulo in June than it is in Edinburgh. So it can hardly be the traditional seasonality factors that's causing the difference. Also, the US is seeing rising rates smack bang in the middle of their summer.

In the USA it looks like the worse cases are states where communal responsibility sounds too much like Communism.

[superbigal]

So confirmed facts on Leicester.

Spike.mostly in 1 part of the city.

Mainly confined to young working aged

Is community transmission.

 

Also not factual but listening to a restaurant owner on 5 live. He says people have not been social distancing since restrictions lifted, so although disappointed not surprised.

 

 

[101]

The problem Leicester are having is that there is no guidance for local lockdowns and the council have very limited power, why on earth has England relaxed the lockdown restrictions to pretty much nil before these plans were in place surely keeping the whole country sticking with the 2m distance as even a start until you have local people able to make decisions. Quite frankly this should be a resigning issue for Hancock and Johnson but they are probably about 10 calamities past resigning

[superbigal]

But why have the good citizens of Leicester thought it appropriate to flout the regulations ? Virus does not spread by magic.

May be an element of what you reap is what you sow.

 

[Dee Man]

18 minutes ago, 101 said:

The problem Leicester are having is that there is no guidance for local lockdowns and the council have very limited power, why on earth has England relaxed the lockdown restrictions to pretty much nil before these plans were in place surely keeping the whole country sticking with the 2m distance as even a start until you have local people able to make decisions. Quite frankly this should be a resigning issue for Hancock and Johnson but they are probably about 10 calamities past resigning

It looks like they are past trying to contain it and are happy for it just to rip through communities in the hope that people build up immunity to it. 

[dirty dingus]

24 minutes ago, superbigal said:

So confirmed facts on Leicester.

Spike.mostly in 1 part of the city.

Mainly confined to young working aged

Is community transmission.

 

Also not factual but listening to a restaurant owner on 5 live. He says people have not been social distancing since restrictions lifted, so although disappointed not surprised.

 

 

A specialist from Leicester was on radio 4 said they raised concerns 11 days ago when they first seen a large rise in infectionsand asked for localised data and de-centralised testing to be made available . The mayor found out about the lockdown in an an e-mail after midnight.  Matt Hancock come on talking about feels passing on the responsibility to councils and fumbling about how data and things will be available from now on.

[101]

1 minute ago, Dee Man said:

It looks like they are past trying to contain it and are happy for it just to rip through communities in the hope that people build up immunity to it. 

Then why bother with local lockdowns? If Boris has a plan he's never communicated it to the public and if he wants to do what Sweden did then we have royally fucked the economy due to the cuts the Tories have made to the health service, because if the NHS had been gaurenteed not to drown then we could have carried on as normal.

It's ballsy to go for immunity when no-one know what that means or how long it lasts, eradication is the only way until we know more about the virus.

[101]

3 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

A specialist from Leicester was on radio 4 said they raised concerns 11 days ago when they first seen a large rise in infectionsand asked for localised data and de-centralised testing to be made available . The mayor found out about the lockdown in an an e-mail after midnight.  Matt Hancock come on talking about feels passing on the responsibility to councils and fumbling about how data and things will be available from now on.

We're going to see more and more of this, slippery shoulders during a global pandemic, what is it with Tories and being accountable.

Edited June 30, 2020 by 101

[renton]

9 hours ago, D.A.F.C said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704
 

ffs

Bonfire of the pigs...

[Michael W]

20 minutes ago, Dee Man said:

It looks like they are past trying to contain it and are happy for it just to rip through communities in the hope that people build up immunity to it. 

They wouldn't have reversed the relaxation measures in Leicester if this was the case. 

[Dee Man]

9 hours ago, D.A.F.C said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704
 

ffs

Pandemics are going to be the new DEVASTATING WINTER ON THE WAY  predictions for the media IMO. Desperate to be the first with the exclusive news. Report on it enough and they'll eventually get one right. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

How do you enforce a local lockdown and/or identify areas? Wouldn't you need to be proactive and actually put security of some type in to stop and remind people, with powers to find etc? I doubt the police would be able to do it without support.