Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Donathan]

Labour will be hoping for a Scottish economic disaster whilst England unlocks relatively free of a second wave. They could then blame the Tories for the horrific death toll and Sturgeon for the humped economy and pick up scores of votes from angry voters across Scotland next May.

[Billy Jean King]

Boy was predominantly a Celtic fan, think he's been at a handful of Dumbarton games over the years as well. Haven't been on b&w army but going by Reynard and Lex's contributions on here I can believe it, ha.
Oh aye, had forgotten to mention that the guy I'm referring to was a massive fan of that Count Dankula roaster and all.

There is way worse these days, total cesspool.

[Steven W]

8 hours ago, Frankie S said:

I know Nicola Sturgeon is getting widely praised for her cautious approach to easing restrictions in Scotland, but I’m starting to wonder if the cure won’t be (much) worse than the disease now. 

Given the comparatively low, and consistently-reducing, Covid stats in Scotland, negligible community transmission, and the fairly clear retreat of the disease, allied to the absence of any evidence of a second wave in countries that have already relaxed restrictions, I’d have expected a more positive vision for the future than that currently emanating from the Scottish government. 

Given the overwhelming imperative to restart a moribund economy, and the huge cost in Covid-related trade offs - in reduced health provision for non-Covid patients, and sacrifices in education for a generation of students, Sturgeon’s strategy is starting to look decidedly myopic. 

Today’s pleading to Westminster for an extension to furlough for an additional 18 months to two years is not only wholly unrealistic, it’s surely evidence of a lack of resolve to make the tough decisions required to kick-start the economy. 

For a while I’ve thought her strategy was to position herself as the sensible antidote to the ‘reckless’ Tories, but of late I can’t shake the thought that it’s not so much a strategy as an evasion of responsibility. 

Putting health first is laudable, but the huge cost of lifting restrictions too slowly has to be factored into the equation too. Sturgeon seems to have dug herself in deep on 2 metre social distancing, despite the WHO (and most other countries) advising 1 metre, or 1.5. 2 metres is simply unworkable in business, from the travel and retail sectors to the hospitality, theatre, cinema and live music industries. Everyone knows it. It doesn’t work in schools, as Scotland’s plans for part-time schooling in the Autumn suggest, and it doesn’t work on planes, in shops, in bars, theatres, cinemas, restaurants, or any business that is dependant on customer footfall. Increased costs (due to Covid protection measures) and hugely reduced income streams is a sure fire formula for business failure not success.

Provided there is no second wave, and the preliminary signs from our European neighbours are surely positive in that regard, the UK government will climb down from 2m sooner rather than later, that is fairly clear. And where Westminster goes Scotland will have to follow, whether Sturgeon likes it or not. The backlash from business if Scotland sticks with 2m as England reduces social distancing will be immense. 

Kicking the can down the road for 18 months or 2 years is not an option. Government support won’t be forthcoming. We have no control of the purse strings, and there would be almost nothing left of the economy to return to in 2 years time anyway. Business needs certainty, decisiveness and positivity, to retain employment levels and to ensure there is an appetite for the fight ahead. Today's message sounded passive and uninspiring: a meekly dependent Scottish government won’t inspire confidence. 

Scotland needs to stop extending the begging bowl, and start taking responsibility for its own future. We have to make these tough decisions now, and outline a positive vision for the future, having due regard to the enormous multi-faceted challenges that confront us. None of this is to diminish this horrible disease, but we have to get a broader perspective, look dispassionately at the bigger picture, and take urgent action to avoid the economy, and the futures of our children, being destroyed for generations to come. We can’t mothball the economy forever, or put our lives on hold indefinitely.

Excellent post. Agreed on all fronts.

It's interesting to note that there's more and more coming round to thinking along these lines. 

I also note that Nicola Sturgeon has triumphantly retweeted Glenn Campbell saying that Scotland has one of the lowest (possibly THE lowest) R rate of any of the UK nation's. She's right obviously that this is a good thing, but there'd be something wrong if we didn't!

[Billy Jean King]

Fully agree with frankie's long post above. And i think the tide of opinion will turn quickly.
 
Phase 2 has to be fully eased on thursday, and if there's no big spike in numbers, phase 3 in a few weeks time.
 
The 2m thing has to go as well, but she'll hang on to that for another few weeks at least, and I'm fine with that. But we need to get going pretty fucking soon.
 
If there is a big spike we've now got our tracing system up and running, and it's already had a few weeks to get going properly. All signs are good, and thankfully it's not being run by serco or the like. Keep that going properly, keep the hygiene levels maxed out, and we'll hopefully keep a major second spike at bay.
 
 
 
 
 
 

We already know P2 is not going to be fully implemented next Thu and we have been given a massive nod to the parts that won't be relaxed as we have been given a future date for it happening (15 July) which clearly is going to be the earliest P3 easing. Not saying that's right but it's already out there so we know where this is going.

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

We already know P2 is not going to be fully implemented next Thu and we have been given a massive nod to the parts that won't be relaxed as we have been given a future date for it happening (15 July) which clearly is going to be the earliest P3 easing. Not saying that's right but it's already out there so we know where this is going.

I mentioned this previously, but the 15th being the day the school holidays begin in England should tell you who is making that decision.

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

35 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I mentioned this previously, but the 15th being the day the school holidays begin in England should tell you who is making that decision.

I keep seeing this point made here and elsewhere but is it actually true?

 

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

I keep seeing this point made here and elsewhere but is it actually true?

 

 

Apparently most English schools break up on July 22nd.

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Apparently most English schools break up on July 22nd.

Most do, but some East Midlands schools break up the week before.

Edited June 13, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Most do, but some East Midlands schools break up the week before.

So Scotland are going on East Midlands time?

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

So Scotland are going on East Midlands time?

It doesn't strike you as slightly odd that, despite every review date being a Thursday, the tourism and hospitality sector has a date five weeks away that falls on a Wednesday. The same Wednesday that falls one day after the first schools in England have officially closed for summer?

It could be a massive coincidence, of course

Edited June 13, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[coprolite]

3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

So Scotland are going on East Midlands time?

Everything is always done to benefit Leicester 

[Steven W]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It doesn't strike you as slightly odd that, despite every review date being a Thursday, the tourism and hospitality sector has a date five weeks away that falls on a Wednesday. The same Wednesday that falls one day after the first schools in England have officially closed for summer?

You may or not be right on this one. But in any event there has to be some signicance to the 15th July date. A signicance that has not been explained to us

[coprolite]

18 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It doesn't strike you as slightly odd that, despite every review date being a Thursday, the tourism and hospitality sector has a date five weeks away that falls on a Wednesday. The same Wednesday that falls one day after the first schools in England have officially closed for summer?

It could be a massive coincidence, of course

If we assume for a second that the two dates are connected, why would that mean the decision has been taken elsewhere? Being influenced by external factors is not the same thing and might be sensible for an industry that relies on visitors. 

Prices go up during the school holidays so aligning the re-opening dates with prices going up minimises refunds that need to be given and maximises income. 

I had a booking cancelled in Devon in May and they said (in May) that their chain was staying closed until at least (wait for it) July 15. Making another leap to assume that this came from a tourist board or similar quango and was going to be England-wide, would it not disadvantage Scottish business to be closed while the neighbours are taking bookings? 

[Lambie's Pigeon Feed]

27 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It doesn't strike you as slightly odd that, despite every review date being a Thursday, the tourism and hospitality sector has a date five weeks away that falls on a Wednesday. The same Wednesday that falls one day after the first schools in England have officially closed for summer?

It could be a massive coincidence, of course

Yes, our recovery phase is predicated on when some schools in certain parts of England break for summer term. Have you told the press what you've uncovered here? It's truly astonishing.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I mentioned this previously, but the 15th being the day the school holidays begin in England should tell you who is making that decision.

They don't - for most schools it's a week later as it has always been. 

 

 

London schools have always come off at the end of the third week in July.

 

I know this because:

 

a) I taught in London for 6 years and still keep in touch we ith ex-colleagues.

 

b) When booking any of my own holidays I always check when most English school holidays start.

 

It's been the end of the third week in July for as long as I can remember.

 

 

[Todd_is_God]

8 minutes ago, Lambie's Pigeon Feed said:

Yes, our recovery phase is predicated on when some schools in certain parts of England break for summer term. Have you told the press what you've uncovered here? It's truly astonishing.

Right, so it's not safe for Scottish tourists to take a trip in Scotland when our schools break up, but 3 weeks later it is safe for English tourists to come up here despite daily cases currently averaging almost 100 times more?

That absolutely makes sense right enough.

Edited June 13, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Paco]

Today’s pleading to Westminster for an extension to furlough for an additional 18 months to two years is not only wholly unrealistic, it’s surely evidence of a lack of resolve to make the tough decisions required to kick-start the economy.

I agree with much of your post but I do think there’s been a bit of a misunderstanding about Sturgeon’s words yesterday. She is simply looking for similar protection to that being offered in France/Germany for industries that simply won’t go back to normal for now - the example she tweeted about was Airbus, companies quite simply will not be buying new planes so as a country do we just sit and wait on the redundancies arriving? While in the meantime France/Germany remain active, where do you think orders are going to go when things do improve?

It’s politically convenient of course that the Scottish Government doesn’t have the power or ability to do this themselves. Always easier to play opposition and pay lip service about what you’d do if only you could, and I get the impression the UBI debate is in line with this. I’m not convinced the SNP as a party is anywhere near such a radical step. I’ve complained for years that the limit of ambition for many issues in Scotland, most notably the health service, is ‘a bit better than England’. But on this I don’t think she’s speaking out of turn, simply looking for the same job/industry protection that’s ongoing with our main competitors. And I’d be surprised if ultimately this isn’t something that happens, the UK is already voluntarily putting huge barriers in place to business come December without adding less subsidy/support than their competitors into the bargain.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

They don't - it's a week later as it has always been.

They do, though.

The 15th is the first day of school holidays in England.

Regardless of the fact most councils will break up the following week, one will already have done so.

The start is the start.

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Right so it's not safe for Scottish tourists to take a trip in Scotland when our schools break up, but it is safe for English tourists to come up here despite daily cases currently averaging almost 100 times more.

That absolutely makes sense right enough.

Tourists from Scotland and England would be allowed to holiday in Scotland from the same date.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

They do, though.
The 15th is the first day of school holidays in England.
Regardless of the fact most councils will break up the following week, one will already have done so.
The start is the start.

Because everything revolves around the Midlands?

If it was based on school holidays it would be London - they are the following week.

You need to take the tinfoil hat off.