Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Guest SJP79]

11 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

In terms of Europe all are doing well.

Our numbers are akin to the likes of Finland, Norway and Denmark.

Our restrictions should be starting to reflect this.

So what would you like to see happening with restrictions ?

[SoapMactavish]

3 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

20 hours ago, SoapMactavish said:

The principle reason for the 2m rule is that most of the research suggests by 1.5m the vast majority (99%) of any respiratory droplets has hit the deck. The 2m thing is just extra caution. 
 
Obviously this is null and void if someone is coughing, sneezing etc but it more relates to the virus particles people are just regularly breathing out. 
 
Until we have widescale mass testing we can’t work out how many people are infected and until we can work that out then I don’t fancy being closer than 2m to strangers. I’ve had it once and I don’t fancy putting any potential immunity to the test...
 
edit to add: again the research suggests that you would have to spend more than 15 minutes within the 2m area to increase your risk. Just brushing past someone in Asda isn’t going to give you it unless they cough in your face.

We also need to have test that doesn't give out a significant amount of false negatives.

Aye the test is a bit shit, 30% chance of false negatives and something like 20% of false positives. I’ve seen folk in ITU who’ve had half a dozen negative tests and yet the CT scan of their chest is textbook Covid. I know which I trust, pity we can’t just scan the entire population

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, SJP79 said:

So what would you like to see happening with restrictions ?

We should at least be moving to Phase 2 in its entirety by next Friday.

[RH33]

1 hour ago, Tynierose said:

Yes isn't it remarkable.   It's almost as if washing your hands is a good idea.

Incidentally how much longer are we planning on killing the service industry with the 2m distancing pish when it's acceptable on the continent to have 1m distancing.

No doubt there will be a change on that soon after more jobs are lost.

Fucking clueless, using whatever scientific methodology suits the agenda at the time.  Shambles.

 

Who said anything about washing hands?!

[RH33]

2 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

I was giving you the benefit of the doubt 

Was in Paisley, be glad her toilet flushed!

[renton]

17 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It can if it needlessly costs jobs and businesses.

Measures can be eased with minimal risk. We've seen it across europe and, to and extent, England on much bigger numbers than we have here.

Despite saying they are doing what is best for Scotland, it is undoubtably a political decision to stay behind England every step of the way.

As you loosen up restrictions, the R value will inevitably jump up a bit. Go too far too fast and the R value could jump above 1, if it gets above 1 on a big enough geographical scale then we start to look at a restart of the pandemic.

Take Denmark for example. When they reopened schools and nurseries R apparently jumped from 0.6 to 0.9 under their domestic measures and models. Our R value is apparently in the range of 0.6 to 0.8. If we are on the low side of that, then we have margin to burn, if we are on the high side of that, not so much.

A second point is that ScotGov wants good, sustainable routine testing in its hospitals and care homes to give an extra important layer of tracking, I think that is a good trip system to have in place.

The modelling has its fallacies, the testing has its limitations, but we only get one shot at this and attempting to bring a resurgent pandemic under control would either require a reset of lockdown, or simply letting it take its course, neither of which are great solutions by any metric. So I dont think ScotGov can consider the risk minimal currently. I do agree that a number of plans around restart for the hospitality industry and schools are clunky at best, unworkable at worst, but those do reflect worse case scenarios.

I dont think Scot Gov is baulking decisions, I think they are being very deliberate in their decisions. I dont think this is a nakedly political decision either, otherwise they could have made far more effort to differentiate themselves at any turn they wanted.

[Guest SJP79]

13 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

We should at least be moving to Phase 2 in its entirety by next Friday.

The virus has not gone away though, its past the peak but still out there, the dangers of moving too quickly could result in more deaths.

Edited June 11, 2020 by SJP79

[welshbairn]

The problem they have now is that they were pushing the message about saving lives, which it was never about, it was about stopping all the infections hitting the NHS at the same time. It's very hard to change policy even if opening everything up turns into just a moderate flu epidemic when you have daily death counts, especially when it's been proven that they're avoidable.

[vikingTON]

4 minutes ago, SJP79 said:

The virus has not gone away though, its past the peak but still out there, the dangerous of moving too quickly could result in more deaths.

More people are dying right now from the impacts of social isolation as well as being too shit-scared after weeks of media and government sensationalism to go to an A and E unit with far more serious conditions. More will die at a younger age in the long run from the economic impacts of an excessive shutdown. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Teachers are still getting paid while doing next to f**k all right now so it seems only fair that they clock up a few extra hours on the other side of the pandemic to make up for that.  Whether that means a six day week or cancelling pointless holidays is up to them and if they end up doing more hours annually than their contract stipulates then they should of course be compensated with higher pay.  
 

In full c**t mode - you just can't help yourself.

[Thereisalight..]

17 minutes ago, virginton said:

More people are dying right now from the impacts of social isolation as well as being too shit-scared after weeks of media and government sensationalism to go to an A and E unit with far more serious conditions. More will die at a younger age in the long run from the economic impacts of an excessive shutdown. 

Very true. I know a few people who won’t go near a hospital right now, my own Mum included! My Aunt is that scared shitless that she’s been out her house 4 times since lockdown began and says as soon as she is in the car and driving away from her street she feels nervous. 

I think between people putting off going to hospital, those who’s treatment was stopped, mental health issues and also many people losing their jobs, we may look back in a few years and wonder if the lockdown was really worth it

[DeeTillEhDeh]

He's full of shite as usual. Ultimately, nothing can be done unless the 2m social distancing guideline is changed. I know my daughter's school reckons that the IT suite that usually accommodates a class of 20 could only take 7 pupils with 2m spacing, home economics is even less as the pupils normally work in pairs to start with. Unless Jack can make a shitload of extra classrooms and teachers appear between now and August, the school's hands are tied.

We'll manage to get up to 10 in IT suites by moving computers, using extra long ethernet cables, underfloor power points and cable covers.

9 suites to rearrange and only one technician to do it - a technician who is also covering feeder primary schools as well.

That takes time to sort out. It's all and fine to say that this might be close to over by August - but we cannot assume that - at the very least they have to plan fir a worst case scenario - which is blended teaching until December.

From what I've heard it seems that if things continue as they are we will be looking at all pupils back on full timetables after the October Holidays.

[Billy Jean King]

We'll manage to get up to 10 in IT suites by moving computers, using extra long ethernet cables, underfloor power points and cable covers.

9 suites to rearrange and only one technician to do it - a technician who is also covering feeder primary schools as well.

That takes time to sort out. It's all and fine to say that this might be close to over by August - but we cannot assume that - at the very least they have to plan fir a worst case scenario - which is blended teaching until December.

From what I've heard it seems that if things continue as they are we will be looking at all pupils back on full timetables after the October Holidays.

My sons head teacher said yesterday they are being told it will be blended as they now call it until October at least irrespective of how things pan out before 11 August. She says there is no way the level of change required will be be able to be put back once completed before the August start. As others are saying this is major infrastructure upheaval not cosmetic fluffing.

[Todd_is_God]

59 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

especially when it's been proven that they're avoidable.

Given we have been 'locked down' for 10 weeks and people are still dying, i'm not sure it has been proven that they are avoidable.

What has been proven is that less cases will lead to less deaths. But that is obvious.

We are at a stage now in Scotland where the majority are happy to stay restricted purely on the basis it is not what WM & the Tories are doing rather than whether or not they feel it's proportionate. I won't use the term brainwashed as that would be OTT, but there is definitely an "us v them" mentality rather than focusing on what is and isn't safe or feasible in Scotland. It leads to a situation where BJ & NS could both ease the same restriction, with BJ being reckless to do so and NS right.

It's very strange atm in Scotland where if BJ says black is black and NS said it was in fact white, a large number of SNP supporters would agree with her.

Edited June 11, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

My sons head teacher said yesterday they are being told it will be blended as they now call it until October at least irrespective of how things pan out before 11 August.

I imagine employers would be absolutely delighted in the scenario that, having survived Covid-19, they then have to support and work around parents having to homeschool their kids for absolutely no reason.

Edited June 11, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Comparing different figures for different countries is dubious to say the least - comparing apples with oranges. Belgium, for example, looks the worst because they are using the excess deaths measure - the only country in the world doing so. At the other extreme North Korea claims it has no cases and no deaths - which is utter fantasy.

 

In terms of deaths its no surprise that Scotland will be nearer the top - not incompetence but the reality that there are more long term underlying health issues as well as chronic obesity - 70% of those dying have been chronically obese.

 

The whole care home stuff in hindsight might have been an issue but where were these voices in March? The evidence from Italy at the time was that hospitals were going to be swamped and freeing up bed spaces was one of the few options until NHS Louisa Jordan was in place.

 

So, some say - you should have tested those returning to care homes - given that there wasn't the testing capacity - the DNA of the virus was not made public until 19 January it is expecting bloody miracles to create a release reliable test and to mass produce it. Even now the test is still giving a high level of false negatives - I've seen estimates put as high as 30% - that means one in 4.5 tests marked as negative could have been a Covid-19 carrier. False positives are estimated to be at the 20% mark (1 in 5 tests) - yes testing can help but it is not a magic bullet.

 

Shortages of PPE - again not surprising - the worldwide demand for PPE increased a several factors above the normal demand - manufacturers we even had the sordid spectacle of the US government indulging in modern day piracy for supplies already bought by other Western governments. Where there is a case to answer is PPE in care homes - not because the Scottish Government were not supplying it quickly enough - but because care homes, in the chase for profits, had not stocked the levels they should have for a normal situation. This is the same care homes who employed agency staff and thought it was a good idea to move them between different care homes. The same care homes that covered up infections and didn't inform staff or residents. When I see the likes of Robert Kilgour whining about this it makes my blood boil - these people have charged the elderly fortunes for years, udsing undrerpaid staff, and cutting corners, All in the name of profit.

 

For me, if there is a fundamental failure it is in pandemic planning itself - that isn't a Scottish Government responsibility but the UK government - it's they who ignored the recommendations of Cygnus - it is they who downscaled pandemic planning.

 

Beyond this there are structural reasons why the health and care sector coiuld not cope:

 

* Nearly a decade of underfunding due to Westminster austerity measures

* Unmanageable workloads, leading to stress and burnout and a recruitment/retention crisis

* Lack of investment and training in new technology

* Lack of clarity surrounding transformation models, such Accountable care systems

* An ageing population and steep increase in demand for health services

 

Almost all this have there roots in chronic underfunding driven by HM Treasury decisions.

 

As I said before, I've no problem with any government being held accountable - but any review of the response to Covid-19 (and there should be one) should not be looking just at the events during the crisis but the landscape beforehand. It should also be based on clear defined data, allowing comparisons - not back of an envelope calculations by journalists who are armchair hindsight experts.

 

It's a complex issue and some of the analysis doing the rounds is simplistic pish of the first degree.

 

Let's ask be honest - some attacks on the Scottish Government (and the UK government) are motivated, not by making government accountable, but by sheer political opportunism and mischief-making.

 

Rant over.

 

I know some might not agree but I don't think things are as black and white as some are making out.

 

 

 

 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

55 minutes ago, virginton said:

More people are dying right now from the impacts of social isolation as well as being too shit-scared after weeks of media and government sensationalism to go to an A and E unit with far more serious conditions. More will die at a younger age in the long run from the economic impacts of an excessive shutdown. 

Do you wish us to file that under 'Facts' or 'The Assertions of One Individual' ?  If it's the former the statistical  evidence will be welcome.

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Do you wish us to file that under 'Facts' or 'The Assertions of One Individual' ?  If it's the former the statistical  evidence will be welcome.

A&E visits are down almost 50%, hospital deaths are lower than at any point in the last 5 years, and deaths at home are higher.

It's not a stretch to suggest some of those home deaths may not have occurred had people visited a hospital.

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

We're continually kicking people down the line  as there is no way for them to get them seen at present.

Why is that? You'd think that there would be plenty spare capacity given that the huge numbers of Covid patients prepared for never happened, due to the lock down actually working probably.

[Bairnardo]

Correct and there are suggestions it has been here since way before Christmas now and was in China months before that so f**k knows how many cases there have actually been.
Furthermore a pile of staff in healthcare have been given the antibody test and wow they're positive but never had any symptoms.
It's all bloody guesswork.

Even without lockdown rules or 2 metre distancing, I would still expect folk to be much more vigilant re personal hygiene and unnecessary contact for a good long time to come. If you rolled back all the rules now, it would still transmit less than before IMO