Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[John MacLean]

The SPFL/SFA seeking approval from the Scottish Government to resume on August 1st is surely a pointless exercise. 

Professional sport can only return at Phase Two once it can be demonstrated that the virus has been controlled. 

On May 29th it is impossible to provide a date for when, if, the virus has been controlled so the only answer the Scottish Government can give would be along the lines of, "we can't at this stage provide any indication of when we will move into Phase Two and therefore we can provide no date from the resumption of any professional sport". 

[dirty dingus]

Swings and roundabouts, there will be more suicides and deaths from missed appointments but less deaths due to work related accidents and traffic deaths.

[John MacLean]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I think if we are have 7 day averages under 35 cases per day (down from 51/52 today) and still trending down, and 10 deaths per day in 3 weeks time people will be angry at not moving to stage 2, not disappointed.

Are deaths to be the sole factor in determining whether the virus is under control which is the factor that will determine whether we move to Phase Two? 

I'm sure it is a more complicated assessment than simply counting the number of corpses each day. 

Far too many people are simply assuming that moving to the next Phase is automatic and will follow in three week increments when the Scottish Government have been at pains to stress that that isn't the case. 

[madwullie]

23 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

31 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I think it was we must be *at least* in phase 2

I think we would all be disappointed if not down hearted if we were not. That said Leitch just saying on the briefing to get the notion we will be moving to phase 2 in three weeks out our heads basically. They have set their parameters, they need to ensure they stick to their end of the bargain.

They will stick to the bargain, but it was made clear the bargain was that various parameters had to be met for them to move to the next stage. If they're not met, then they shouldn't move. I'd keegan style love it if each stage meant 3 weeks, but that will only happen if we keep our side 

Edited May 29, 2020 by madwullie

[madwullie]

9 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Swings and roundabouts, there will be more suicides and deaths from missed appointments but less deaths due to work related accidents and traffic deaths.

Deaths from missed appointments won't be visible for at least 6 months, probably more. Anything life threateningly urgent will get treated, and cancer etc takes its time about it

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, Turkmenbashi said:

In most countries that locked down early, deaths decreased.

In Italy for example the death rate is down in Rome compared to normal for example. 

Thats because all those who would be dying now are already dead...

Edited May 29, 2020 by Jacksgranda
sllepnig

[Detournement]

15 minutes ago, madwullie said:

but that will only happen if we keep our side 

Most infections are in care homes and hospitals which is down to the SG not the public.

They need to do their job it's not in any way a bargain.

[Turkmenbashi]

2 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Thanks because all those who would be dying now are already dead...

This is at the height of the pandemic. So March/April, in Rome itself the deaths decreased by something like 10%, whereas in Bergamo they had increased 500%. 
I think the assumption was mostly a decrease in car accidents being the big savour.

[Jacksgranda]

2 minutes ago, Turkmenbashi said:

This is at the height of the pandemic. So March/April, in Rome itself the deaths decreased by something like 10%, whereas in Bergamo they had increased 500%. 
I think the assumption was mostly a decrease in car accidents being the big savour.

I wasn't being entirely serious.

[Turkmenbashi]

4 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

I wasn't being entirely serious.

[Todd_is_God]

33 minutes ago, John MacLean said:

Are deaths to be the sole factor in determining whether the virus is under control which is the factor that will determine whether we move to Phase Two? 

I'm sure it is a more complicated assessment than simply counting the number of corpses each day. 

Far too many people are simply assuming that moving to the next Phase is automatic and will follow in three week increments when the Scottish Government have been at pains to stress that that isn't the case. 

Well no. But new infections going down, and new deaths going down is a big part of it.

Hospital admissions, ICU admissions etc too, but id imagine they would be reducing if the rest are.

The point is that if there is no adverse reaction to stage 1, then we should move on.

But we'll see i guess

[Eddie Hitler]

31 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Most infections are in care homes and hospitals which is down to the SG not the public.

They need to do their job it's not in any way a bargain.

Bollocks.

SG has a job to do on care homes etc but until the day and hour that the staff who work in them are able to insulate themselves entirely from other members of the public, then the public has a role to play as well by attempting not to go about breathing on each other so that those working in care homes are less likely to carry infection into a care home.

[craigkillie]

1 hour ago, John MacLean said:

The SPFL/SFA seeking approval from the Scottish Government to resume on August 1st is surely a pointless exercise. 

Professional sport can only return at Phase Two once it can be demonstrated that the virus has been controlled. 

On May 29th it is impossible to provide a date for when, if, the virus has been controlled so the only answer the Scottish Government can give would be along the lines of, "we can't at this stage provide any indication of when we will move into Phase Two and therefore we can provide no date from the resumption of any professional sport". 

It's not really a pointless exercise is it? I think it's reasonable to expect that we will probably have reached Phase 2 in two months time. Even if we are in Phase 2 the resumption of any large scale events such as football will require government advice to go ahead.

Fortunately for Scottish football, the government aren't chippy weirdos who will stonewall every reasonable question with the sort of generic thing you've posted, and have been actively consulting with sporting bodies about these things almost from day 1. They're not going to guarantee anything, but they'll be able to advise whether they think it's going to be reasonable.

[superbigal]

I actually expect the furlough changes to be the first decent bit of policy in months.

It will allow all the businesses that suffer through distancing to open as well as they can do and still potentially only pay 20% of the wages.

Clearly the detail of how much "free work" the employer can get will be crucial.

Hope back to work even 3 or 4 days out of usual 5 will get this full support.

Waiting with interest.

 

Any business that cant is probably unfortunately unsustainable anyway.

 

 

[John MacLean]

20 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The point is that if there is no adverse reaction to stage 1, then we should move on.

 

That is a major simplification of the situation. 

What we are currently moving from is a situation where it was assessed that there was "high transmission of the virus" and a "risk of overwhelming NHS capacity" to one where there is a "High risk that the virus is not contained". 

To move to Phase Two (the virus is controlled) there needs to be an indication, with set criteria (some, but not all, of which you mention  included) that the virus is controlled albeit still with "risk of it spreading". 

"No adverse reaction" as you put it would simply be maintaining the current position and not returning to high transmission and risk to the NHS capacity not an indication that the virus is controlled. 

Hopefully moving from Phase One to Phase two will be relatively rapid. What we do over the next few weeks, how closely we all follow the Scottish Government's guidance/rules, will determine that. Bollox it up and we can take a step backwards which after that we've been through would be devastating. 

[NotThePars]

13 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

This is the one thing we didn't want to happen

 

Isn't this the start of both 28 Days Later and The Last of Us? First as tragedy and then as farce.

[John MacLean]

3 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

It's not really a pointless exercise is it? I think it's reasonable to expect that we will probably have reached Phase 2 in two months time. Even if we are in Phase 2 the resumption of any large scale events such as football will require government advice to go ahead.

Fortunately for Scottish football, the government aren't chippy weirdos who will stonewall every reasonable question with the sort of generic thing you've posted, and have been actively consulting with sporting bodies about these things almost from day 1. They're not going to guarantee anything, but they'll be able to advise whether they think it's going to be reasonable.

Of course it's pointless as the Scottish Government can't possibly comment/guess on what phase we will be at by August 1st. 

Professional sport can return at Phase Two, within public health guidelines, but when we actually reach Phase Two, at the moment, is total guesswork. These Phases aren't three week increments. 

[Guest]

37 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Most infections are in care homes and hospitals which is down to the SG not the public.

They need to do their job it's not in any way a bargain.

This is utter and complete nonsense.

Care Homes and Hospitals are responsible for the majority of infections and indeed Deaths throughout most countries in the world, so it's got absolutely NOTHING to do with what the Scottish Government did or didn't do properly and frankly trying to make this a political issue is quite ridiculous.

The root problem, if any, actually lies with our society where people who are vulnerable / nearing the end are packed off to said care home, the fact that these places are then breeding grounds and killing fields for the virus should not be in the least bit surprising. On the other hand the likes of Italy had more community deaths, due to more of the elderly actually living with their families.

Yes, like all Governments the Scottish one has also made mistakes, however what would have been the alternatives to avoid the care home issues ? and if these alternatives were so simple, why did almost every country make the same mistakes ?

Should recovered patients have been kept in hospital ? apart from bed blocking what would have happened had they contracted the virus and died in hospital ? My guess is that the same recriminations would have been made regarding "Government failings" and the criticism would have been that "they should never have been left in hospitals when they could have been returned to the care home".

The bottom line is that this virus attacks the elderly and the weak and it's also very contagious, as such "care homes" are the perfect breeding ground and due to the vulnerability of those patients, the outcome is very often death.

End of story.

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, John MacLean said:

That is a major simplification of the situation. 

What we are currently moving from is a situation where it was assessed that there was "high transmission of the virus" and a "risk of overwhelming NHS capacity" to one where there is a "High risk that the virus is not contained". 

To move to Phase Two (the virus is controlled) there needs to be an indication, with set criteria (some, but not all, of which you mention  included) that the virus is controlled albeit still with "risk of it spreading". 

"No adverse reaction" as you put it would simply be maintaining the current position and not returning to high transmission and risk to the NHS capacity not an indication that the virus is controlled.

That's fair.

Regarding the latter point, refer back to my previous post. It was based on cases continuing to fall.

[Jeff Venom]

This is the one thing we didn't want to happen
 

That a deliberate Brass Eye ref, Mixu?

When Cummings was sitting in front of the camera giving it I wanted to test my eyes so I drove 60 miles, I quickly thought of Sir Hugh Maharggs of the MoD defending Captain Bruge being caught fellating a gun by saying he saw his gun needed cleaning, so he cleaned it.