Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ICTChris]

Most beer gardens are absolutely awful in this country. A couple of scabby picnic tables next to the bins.

[Donathan]

Phase 3, does the “meet with another household” mean one at a time or you can only meet with one other (i.e. in “bubbles”)

[renton]

1 minute ago, The Real Saints said:

Why do none of these ‘road maps’ indicate when we may be able to visit family or enter somebody else’s house? I’m sure that’s one of the most pressing issues for a lot of people, and failing to mention it surely increases the risk of some idiots growing impatient and breaking the rules.

They do. 

[renton]

1 minute ago, Big Fifer said:

Where are people getting that each phase is just gonna be 3 weeks after the last one? Does it actually say that in the document? I am just starting to read now but not seen that. 

The period for reviewing measures are 3 weeks apart, so it's as fast as it can go, really.

[John MacLean]

It's not three weeks for each phase.  It's a bit foolish to be putting dates, even hypothetical ones, to each Phase. The road map is very careful not to do that perhaps learning lessons from Johnson's muddled address in England. 

The restrictions need to be constantly reviewed with three weeks the maximum time between each review period. Changes can be made within that three week period. 

It is far from automatic that after 3 weeks of Phase 1 we move to Phase 2. Indeed it is possible that restrictions previously relaxed may be put back in place. 

Certain criteria need to be met, The R number staying below 1, rate of infections and ICU patients continuing to fall etc., before moving onto the next Phase. 

It's a small, but positive step, providing nothing untoward happens between now and next Thursday. In short don't be a bellend this weekend. 

Edited May 21, 2020 by John MacLean

[Big Fifer]

Just now, renton said:

The period for reviewing measures are 3 weeks apart, so it's as fast as it can go, really.

Fair enough. Planning for us to be in phase 4 within 10 weeks seems a bit presumptuous to me though. 

[TheScarf]

32 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

The Castle Tavern is about the only half decent one in Inverness. Even though it is about £6 a pint and impossible to get a table in the summer.

My local boozer has a large barely used car park, so I'm hoping they decide to fill it with benches and parasols.

What pub is that?

[The Real Saints]

Why do none of these ‘route maps’ indicate when we may be able to visit family or enter somebody else’s house? I’m sure that’s one of the most pressing issues for a lot of people, and failing to mention it surely increases the risk of some idiots growing impatient and breaking the rules.
 

They do, you fucking dickhead.

[John MacLean]

3 minutes ago, Big Fifer said:

Where are people getting that each phase is just gonna be 3 weeks after the last one? Does it actually say that in the document? I am just starting to read now but not seen that. 

No it doesn't. 

[MuckleMoo]

Most beer gardens are absolutely awful in this country. A couple of scabby picnic tables next to the bins.

This.

It's the one thing the south of England do well. Magic beer gardens.

VT touched on it a few posts back. Surely there will be licensing issues in regards to pubs/cafes springing up outside seating?

[dundeefc1783]

Fair enough. Planning for us to be in phase 4 within 10 weeks seems a bit presumptuous to me though. 

Yeah thats my thought as well. I imagine each phase particularly the early ones will likely cover 2 review periods

[Dons_1988]

I'm lucky enough to have a small garden so I will be avoiding beer gardens while demand is ridiculously high. It will likely be hell on earth.

[Gordon EF]

8 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I don't recall her saying anything about each phase was three weeks. Every chance I'm wrong of course, so im baffled as to why people are putting dates on gyms and pubs opening

Because they're going to re-evaluate at a maximum of every three weeks. These estimates are 'fastest case' scenarios.

[superbigal]

The schools back date in effect looks to be a key phase date target.

 

It's a better document than englands in clarity

 

 

 

 

[madwullie]

15 minutes ago, renton said:

This is exactly it, stage one is a total non event, except apart from that critical constituency of golfers.

Well the polis can stop half-arsedly moving on people who are sunbathing 

[Gordon EF]

Given that there are 1,300 odd active confirmed or suspected cases and the estimated total number of infections is 25k, the rough rule of thumb would seem to be that for every 'caught' case, there are around 19 uncaught infections in the community.

I'd have thought that there will be a threshold number of total infections that TTT can effectively suppress. Let's say for arguments sake that's 5k. I'd imagine a reasonable strategy would be continuing with lockdown being eased phase by phase as long as total number of infections keep decreasing with social distancing in place. once we get TTT up and running and hit a magic number of estimated total infections, basically lift lockdown with some social distancing and anti-infection measures still in place and let TTT suppress down the number of total infections until we get to zero.

A very rough estimate from extrapolating the graphs suggest that with the current measures we could get very close to zero total infections by the end of June, assuming we see the same rate of decrease.

Assuming that lifting lockdown measure will see some slight suppression of the rate of decrease, 9 weeks doesn't seem totally unachievable in terms of getting to phase 4.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Gordon EF

[John MacLean]

I suspect that the Scottish Government have been perfectly aware that the current guidelines are to some extent currently being ignored. 

People are clearly meeting in parks/communal gardens etc. with people outside of their own household. People are having friends over - folk across the road from us were doing just that last night. 

A lot of the restrictions relaxed at Phase One are just formalising what in some places is happening in practice. The Scottish Government will have noticed that despite that infection rates etc. have still been coming down. 

Key to moving to Phase 2 will be if there is any increase in infection rates before the next review stage (I guess we might have to go through several reviews before we move, partially at least, to Phase 2). 

People will bend the rules, that's just human nature but these nominal restrictions aren't a thumbs-up for a bevy in the park/back garden with your mates/family no matter how tempting that is. 

Play this well and things could be starting to look much like normality over the course of the summer months. Bollocks it up and we could be stuck at this Phase, or back to full 'Lockdown' in quick time. 

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Anyone who suggests social distancing in a pub is talking out there arse, have you ever been sober in a pub , perhaps when you were driving or had an early start?
Pished folk have nae concept of personal space, they lean into you when they talk, spit when they talk and are notorious for not taking a telling and getting arsey when getting said telling. Either accept that pubs are a risk or wait till theres no cases. This half way house idea is bollocks

[welshbairn]

11 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said:

I'm lucky enough to have a small garden so I will be avoiding beer gardens while demand is ridiculously high. It will likely be hell on earth.

Hopefully most people will be back at work and with no tourists midweek afternoons could be bliss.

[Dan Steele]

12 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:

It's the one thing the south of England do well. Magic beer gardens.

I'd say it's a thing many pubs do really well across England. Some really good ones in Lake District and Northumberland. Us? Not so good.