Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[D.A.F.C]

Quite an in depth look at scottish covid stats here.

I wasnt really aware that deaths were increasing when you see it in a graph form.
Theres no way we should stop lockdown. We are weeks behind south of England.

[bendan]

13 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

 

 

Quite an in depth look at scottish covid stats here.

I wasnt really aware that deaths were increasing when you see it in a graph form.
Theres no way we should stop lockdown. We are weeks behind south of England.

 

Are you sure they are rising? His NRS figures showed about 400 deaths in week 19, which is down from about 650 a week at peak in mid April. Our number of people in ICU has fallen to 70 from a peak of 220.

[Distant Doonhamer]

 

 

Quite an in depth look at scottish covid stats here.

 

I wasnt really aware that deaths were increasing when you see it in a graph form.

Theres no way we should stop lockdown. We are weeks behind south of England.

You mean cumulative deaths are going up? Well that’s inevitable unless there were no deaths. The death rate per week has fallen recently.

Apologies in advance if I’ve misunderstood your point.

[D.A.F.C]

9 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

You mean cumulative deaths are going up? Well that’s inevitable unless there were no deaths. The death rate per week has fallen recently.

Apologies in advance if I’ve misunderstood your point.

I mean when you see it in a graph it’s steepening not levelling off really. You would think that we would be on the downwards curve.

From week x to week y it should be flattening out by now, I guess this is why we are staying in lockdown. The slope of increase.

Im not having a go at the snp or anything and like most I thought the numbers were decreasing if that’s the case then shouldn’t we be on a downward curve?

 

[Tutankhamen]

There's been at least half the UK population in genuine lockdown (maybe leaving the house twice a week to go to the shops and back) let's see what happens in the next couple of months as they come out of hibernation.

[Distant Doonhamer]

I mean when you see it in a graph it’s steepening not levelling off really. You would think that we would be on the downwards curve.
From week x to week y it should be flattening out by now, I guess this is why we are staying in lockdown. The slope of increase.
Im not having a go at the snp or anything and like most I thought the numbers were decreasing if that’s the case then shouldn’t we be on a downward curve?
 

The number of deaths are decreasing week on week. The curve he showed is cumulative deaths. Unless we have a week when there are a negative number of deaths a cumulative curve won’t go down. It becomes completely flat if there are no deaths going forward. Deaths continuing to decrease will lead to the curve flattening. If the rate of deaths go up the curve of cumulative deaths will get more steep.

[pandarilla]

Jesus christ dafc is having his own wee personal car crash here.

He's staying in lockdown until covid victims come back to life!

[D.A.F.C]

D’oh, I get it now. 
Not really sure what the point of cumulative deaths is then because every country will have this until it reaches zero like you say.

So a graph of daily deaths, we would be on the downslope. I thought I’d stumbled on some conspiracy for a second.

[bendan]

9 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Jesus christ dafc is having his own wee personal car crash here.

He's staying in lockdown until covid victims come back to life!
 

I reckon about 30% of the population are thinking that.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

3 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

What happens if you fly to Spain (for example) having passed a temp test on departure but the Spanish test you on entry and you fail that test. They refuse you entry, the airlines then won't fly you home and god knows where you would sit with insurance. Fraught with danger. Add in SD measures in resort and why on earth would anyone even contemplate a foreign holiday this summer. Lunacy !

I have been wondering how it's all going to pan out. Tourism isn't some tuppence ha'penny cottage industry it's a multi billion pound worldwide industry which millions of people rely on for employment and livelihood direct and indirect. It's also undeniably been one of the hardest hit . They are going to have to find a practical way of working around this virus or the entire industry will collapse and die. What they have suggested so far isn't going to cut it, temperature checks and covid tests at the airport won't help them . No body is going to book a holiday under those circumstances , remember up until now being a bit unwell or having a temperature would not normally make you be refused travel but if it is ( imagine going off for a family holiday and one of you is found to be  Asymptomatic covid upon an airport test and your all sent home on the first day of what would be your holiday)  and you're not entitled to a refund and your insurance doesn't cover it? f**k that who would risk booking a trip which has the risk of you getting KB'd at the airport or stuck at your destination unable to return home or have anywhere to stay?

They better get their thinking caps on and they better do it fast!

Edited May 13, 2020 by effeffsee_the2nd

[bendan]

10 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

I have been wondering how it's all going to pan out. Tourism isn't some tuppence ha'penny cottage industry it's a multi billion pound worldwide industry which millions of people rely on for employment and livelihood direct and indirect. It's also undeniably been one of the hardest hit . They are going to have to find a practical way of working around this virus or the entire industry will collapse and die. What they have suggested so far isn't going to cut it, temperature checks and covid tests at the airport won't help them . No body is going to book a holiday under those circumstances , remember up until now being a bit unwell or having a temperature would not normally make you be refused travel but if it is ( imagine going off for a family holiday and one of you is found to be  Asymptomatic covid upon an airport test and your all sent home on the first day of what would be your holiday)  and you're not entitled to a refund and your insurance doesn't cover it? f**k that who would risk booking a trip which has the risk of you getting KB'd at the airport or stuck at your destination unable to return home or have anywhere to stay?

They better get their thinking caps on and they better do it fast!

They've only just thought of doing recruiting for tracing and isolating. That's the speed we're going at. 

I'd say self catering in the UK somewhere will be the cutting edge of travel this year. Not sure rural communities want that though.

[SoapMactavish]

Must admit Todd_is_god is making a roaring c**t of himself on this thread. 

[Theroadlesstravelled]

1 hour ago, SoapMactavish said:

Must admit Todd_is_god is making a roaring c**t of himself on this thread

Are you a “LOCKDOWN everything until a vaccine is found” type?

[peasy23]

Heard a brief discussion on the radio last night about travel and tourism in a post lockdown world. The EU have had some talks with member nations regarding trying to start up the travel sector again, but it's going to be tough if social distancing is to remain a thing going forward. Some of the things mentioned were obvious like flights having to fly with a reduced number of passengers on board which will have a direct effect on ticket prices. One other suggestion was that hotels might need to operate a booking system for poolside beds with time restrictions to limit numbers at the pool, and pools might have to stay shut for while yet anyway.

Looks like Millport next year.

[SlipperyP]

11 minutes ago, peasy23 said:

Heard a brief discussion on the radio last night about travel and tourism in a post lockdown world. The EU have had some talks with member nations regarding trying to start up the travel sector again, but it's going to be tough if social distancing is to remain a thing going forward. Some of the things mentioned were obvious like flights having to fly with a reduced number of passengers on board which will have a direct effect on ticket prices. One other suggestion was that hotels might need to operate a booking system for poolside beds with time restrictions to limit numbers at the pool, and pools might have to stay shut for while yet anyway.

Looks like Millport next year.

Foreign holidays will be for the rich, they way it used  to be.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1917576/cp-chief-pushes-tourism-reboot

[Bairnardo]

Two bits of virus related news iv seen today so far.... The mental health toll is increasing worldwide, and the virus may never disappear even with a vaccine.

I am glad it's not my job to find a way out of this, but theres going to be some searching questions needing asked on the way forward regarding proportionality of short term response, when there is no credible way out of it on the horizon.

It's possible we have really backed ourselves into a corner here, doing major damage across a lot of different fronts and totally blind about how we reverse it.

Trump was way to early with his "cure worse than the virus" patter. But eventually we will get to that point.

Where does the prospect of no effective vaccine in the future leave us? The resistance to rolling lockdowns, which seems to be the only current idea will be enormous. What do we do now?

[Marshmallo]

^^^ Dictionary definition of speaking a lot but saying nothing

[Fullerene]

10 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

I mean is it possible that people will not have had it but will not catch it because of a natural immunity that is not detectable?

I read the book Spillover by David Quammen.  It was about diseases such as Ebola. 

At one point a virologist is as asked "do you ever worry that something will come along and wipe the entire population of the world?"

He calmly replies "No.  With any disease 10% of the population will simply be immune.  The population will thin but that will be it."

For example 10% of the population are immune to HIV/Aids.  Nobody will know that they are but they will be.

I expect the same will be true for this. 

Not sure if it is precisely 10% though.

[dirty dingus]

16 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Two bits of virus related news iv seen today so far.... The mental health toll is increasing worldwide, and the virus may never disappear even with a vaccine.

I am glad it's not my job to find a way out of this, but theres going to be some searching questions needing asked on the way forward regarding proportionality of short term response, when there is no credible way out of it on the horizon.

It's possible we have really backed ourselves into a corner here, doing major damage across a lot of different fronts and totally blind about how we reverse it.

Trump was way to early with his "cure worse than the virus" patter. But eventually we will get to that point.

Where does the prospect of no effective vaccine in the future leave us? The resistance to rolling lockdowns, which seems to be the only current idea will be enormous. What do we do now?

Will it evetually come to accepting the UK have made an arse of it and potter along for a while spiking here and there and awaiting herd immunity or will too many people die and the public demand they do a full reboot. Lock down hard and try get their shit together with track and trace isolate like many SE Asian countries seem to be managing.

[Bairnardo]

6 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Will it evetually come to accepting the UK have made an arse of it and potter along for a while spiking here and there and awaiting herd immunity or will too many people die and the public demand they do a full reboot. Lock down hard and try get their shit together with track and trace isolate like many SE Asian countries seem to be managing.

I dont think the UK public will swallow another lockdown. Specially not after the damage from this one becomes apparent and when there will be either no furlough, or the tories will have started to show their hand over how the plan to hoover it all back up. Lockdowns will get costlier each time I'd imagine and folk wont have the appetite for it. 

I think they have had their chance at a lockdown and failed to capitalise by getting ready to come out of it with effective tti. Not sure where we go from there other than hoping that the next couple of weeks at least sees Scotland with a lower R number and some coherent strategy going forward.