Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ayrmad]

7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Well no, it's impossible to hide excess deaths as all deaths are recorded.

50,000 excess deaths in the UK is broadly similar to the 50,100 excess deaths in England and Wales alone from the last 'bad flu' outbreak in 2016/17 which, despite us having effective flu vaccines already developed, and concentrating it's deaths on an extremely similar demographic as Covid-19 raised not a peep, nevermind a several months long shutdown of the economy and severe restrictions on what people can and cannot do.

How many weeks was that 50000 spread over? 

How many excess deaths would have happened in week 20 or so with no lockdown, a lot more than the worst week in any of those flu outbreaks you mention by a long chalk. 

I know next to nowt about all this but I know you're starting to look stupid. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by ayrmad

[pandarilla]

Also you can get semi decent ones off etsy. They just need to be a cloth covering iirc, doesn't need to be medical grade or anything 

I thought scarfs would be more sensible. Anything that covers the noise and mouth will help reduce any droplets.

[renton]

9 minutes ago, bendan said:

LSHTM define R0 as: "The basic reproduction number, or R0, is the average number of secondary infections arising
from a typical single infection in a completely susceptible population"

https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2020/reproduction-number-covid-19-could-be-below-one-uk-lockdown

You're defining it as something else.

Clearly, if 7 out of 10 are currently infected it would be too late for TTI, but those 7 cases could only infect a total of 3 between them, so R0 would be falling rapidly towards zero. The Scottish government estimate each current infection is leading to between 0.7 and 1.0 new infections ('hovering around 1),  down from about 3 before lockdown (when the WHO said test and trace).

If we can identify currently infected people (by more testing) and trace their contacts (much easier in our current lockdown than otherwise) we can better isolate those people and reduce the reproduction number.

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/

Based on that definition: 

The denser the population, the more people are susceptible, and the more infective the virus, the larger R₀ will be for a given virus; the faster the rate of removal of infected individuals, by recovery or death, the smaller R₀ will be

That suggests that the removal rate of infected individuals matters. So as number of vectors in the population decrease, so should the R0 value. However I will concede that my interpretation is closer to Re:

R_e is affected by the number of people with the infection and the number of susceptibles with whom infected people are in contact. People’s behaviour (e.g. social distancing) can also affect R_e.

The number of susceptibles falls as people die or become immunized by exposure. The sooner people recover or die, the smaller the value of R_e will be at any given time

It also says however, that:

Unfortunately, the symbol R₀ is often used in publications when R_e is meant. This can be confusing

So either way I would contend that the R value being quoted will drop further with the removal rate of vectors via recovery or death. Which goes back to the original point: TTI is effective only when the R value, effective R value if you like, is small enough to allow for efficient tracking and isolation given finite, practical resources. There is certainly an argument that ScotGov should have built up capacity through January and February and that it should not have given up on TTI when it did.  The best argument in hindsight was nothing to do with TTI at all: a short, sharp severe lockdown before a single death occured like New Zealand wouldve been better. 

Nevertheless TTI will be useful now, only once the wave has broken and the lockdown has done its work. In that case I am comfortable with the timelines set out thus far. There is little point doing it before June.

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

How many weeks was that 50000 spread over? 

How many excess deaths would have happened in week 20 or so with no lockdown, a lot more than the worst week in any of those flu outbreaks you mention by a long chalk. 

December to March, like every other year.

There is no evidence that implementing the lockdown here, when they did, had any real effect on limiting deaths (Just as there isn't any to say that it didn't tbf).

Flattening a curve might make the peak smaller, but doesn't automatically make the area under it any less.

It is perfectly acceptable to say that the loss of life is tragic, and that the lockdown was (and is) ineffective.

Edited May 12, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Honest_Man#1]

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

December to March, like every other year.

There is no evidence that implementing the lockdown here, when they did, had any real effect on limiting deaths (Just as there isn't any to say that it didn't tbf).

Flattening a curve might make the peak smaller, but doesn't automatically make the area under it any less.

It is perfectly acceptable to say that the loss of life is tragic, and that the lockdown was (and is) ineffective.

Are you seriously suggesting that if we had not gone into lockdown then excess deaths would be the same as they are now?

12 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

How many weeks was that 50000 spread over? 

How many excess deaths would have happened in week 20 or so with no lockdown, a lot more than the worst week in any of those flu outbreaks you mention by a long chalk. 

I know next to nowt about all this but I know you're starting to look stupid. 

Starting to?

[SlipperyP]

17 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Well no, it's impossible to hide excess deaths as all deaths are recorded.

50,000 excess deaths in the UK is broadly similar to the 50,100 excess deaths in England and Wales alone from the last 'bad flu' outbreak in 2016/17 which, despite us having effective flu vaccines already developed, and concentrating it's deaths on an extremely similar demographic as Covid-19, raised not a peep, nevermind a several months long shutdown of the economy and severe restrictions on what people can and cannot do.

How many NHS staff died during the 'bad flu' outbreak? Hope you have these figures.  If not shut the f**k up.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Honest_Man#1 said:

Are you seriously suggesting that if we had not gone into lockdown then excess deaths would be the same as they are now?

Yes

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, SlipperyP said:

How many NHS staff died during the 'bad flu' outbreak? Hope you have these figures.  If not shut the f**k up.

Do you?

I don't know why that's specifically important.

The failure of the government to ensure NHS staff are supplied with adequate PPE is not reason alone for a lockdown

[EvilScotsman]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yes

There's one massive difference which I think you're overlooking - if you've got the flu, you don't go round and hug your granny.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, EvilScotsman said:

There's one massive difference which I think you're overlooking - if you've got the flu, you don't go round and hug your granny.

If i had covid-19 i wouldn't go and hug her either...

Up to 75% of flu cases are asymptomatic, btw, before you talk about not knowing you have it.

[madwullie]

Flu is nowhere near as contagious as this is. This has spread about while there is a lockdown on. That we're even still talking about this in May is utterly bizarre

[Forest_Fifer]

Well no, it's impossible to hide excess deaths as all deaths are recorded.
50,000 excess deaths in the UK is broadly similar to the 50,100 excess deaths in England and Wales alone from the last 'bad flu' outbreak in 2016/17 which, despite us having effective flu vaccines already developed, and concentrating it's deaths on an extremely similar demographic as Covid-19, raised not a peep, nevermind a several months long shutdown of the economy and severe restrictions on what people can and cannot do.

Weekly all cause mortality stats. Yup, looks just like 2016-17

[madwullie]

Even trump isn't comparing it to flu anymore 

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, madwullie said:

This has spread about while there is a lockdown on.

At least you agree it's ineffective

[Steven W]

Few Covid-19 thoughts

1 - Does furlough through to the end October suggest that the government think this will all be over by then?

2 - Seems to me the teachers union are enjoying being off just now. Doesn't seem to be any appetite for going back from them and offering no solutions on how to overcome this.

3 - Now that Northern Ireland has given out a rough path out of lockdown, leaves just Wales and Scotland. I wonder if we (if tomorrow's weekly death stats drop again) might get one before too long (end of the week maybe?)

4 - Am I right in thinking Sunak hasn't given any details on furlough for August onwards, so we're all left to speculate how it'll work from then on?

[Forest_Fifer]

At least you agree it's ineffective

That's not what he meant and you know it.

[MrWorldwideJr]

1 minute ago, madwullie said:

Flu is nowhere near as contagious as this is. This has spread about while there is a lockdown on. That we're even still talking about this in May is utterly bizarre

To be fair 'we're' not really talking about this in May.

One poster who has clearly been set on the conclusion of 'there was no need for a lockdown' since about March is talking about it. Its been very obvious from their posts over this whole period that they were going to come to the same conclusion regardless of what actually happened.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Seems to me the teachers union are enjoying being off just now. Doesn't seem to be any appetite for going back from them and offering no solutions on how to overcome this.

I have a friend who is a teacher. He's fairly confident the union won't allow a return in Scotland before the end of the summer holidays, as well as demanding extra pay if teachers are asked to come in to schools over the holidays

[mizfit]

There’s zero point in schools going back now. How it’s even being discussed is beyond me.

[Steven W]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

I have a friend who is a teacher. He's fairly confident the union won't allow a return in Scotland before the end of the summer holidays, as well as demanding extra pay if teachers are asked to come in to schools over the holidays

Good grief. Now is surely not the time to be demanding extra pay. I thought we were all in this together?

(Does this hint at there's a train of thought that the schools might possibly return early?)