Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[pub car king]

Couple of things here. On the vitamin D theory has the recent good weather been a factor, had this happened in November would there be bodies stacking up in the streets.

Easing of restrictions is going to be a suck it and see type scenario. The problem is human behaviour folk are fed up with it and that's one of the hardest things to manage.

[Granny Danger]

Is the r value not taken from the overall number of infections/ deaths in relation to the population level?  If so is the r value not only relevant in context?  Surely the r value in care homes and outwith such places is going to be completely different.

[pandarilla]

I guess the point is that the r value is too high to be able to isolate the virus into geographical clusters that can be suppressed. In other words, the random variance of infections through the population is still too high to be able to differentiate sources of outbreaks.
That's why the lockdown is still in place. one of the former Scotland CMOs reckoned he was told the r value in Scotland was about 0.7 and needed to go below 0.5 to be able to move into TTI with a view to mitigating the virus and lower than that to suppress it.
We know that Care Homes are pretty much the single dominant vector now, but those are also contained spaces that it should be possible to shield (not that this is any use to residents in infected homes). If you use the NRS numbers to split out hospital deaths from the general populace vs those from care homes, you find the latter is basically flat over three weeks whereas the former is falling now. Assuming a logarithmic  trend you are looking at another month before it is down in low, double digits. So three more weeks to get the r value down to an acceptable level. 

Are we actually doing anything to help those in care homes? Genuine question.

I know for a while they weren't being admitted to hospital but surely that's changed?

Reading your assessment it seems like we're going to wait 3 weeks until everyone that's going to get it in a care home dies.

After that we'll be down to below 0.5 - because it's done its worst in that setting, you either get it and live, or get it and die.

[renton]

3 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Are we actually doing anything to help those in care homes? Genuine question.

I know for a while they weren't being admitted to hospital but surely that's changed?

Reading your assessment it seems like we're going to wait 3 weeks until everyone that's going to get it in a care home dies.

After that we'll be down to below 0.5 - because it's done its worst in that setting, you either get it and live, or get it and die.
 

I'd assume that they'd be looking at the r value in the general population seperate from that in care homes. The latter is a seperate system that you can isolate easily. Easing the lockdown should then be determined from the r value based on hospital deaths which as it falls should demonstrate that the r value in the general populace has fallen significantly Damned if I know what they are gonna do about the care homes, it's not easy.

[madwullie]

The point is, the government seem to have done f**k all with the lockdown. We should have infrastructure in place to test trace an isolate and then we could "safely" lift the restrictions knowing that there at least some measures in place to deal with the virus and hope to prevent a surge in infections and ultimately deaths. What has actually happened though, is that we've all become pissed off sitting inside our houses for 6 weeks while the government moved cards around the table, fanned about with statistics and spent the time either making a total fool of themselves or trying to spin statistics or meet arbitrary, useless-in-isolation self set targets. All the goodwill built up as people mucked in together is disappearing to be replaced with resentment and agitation. 

Now, everyone is getting pissed off and while we should really be extending the lockdown till these measures are in place (and trimming some more cash off the magic money tree to help those that need it) they're going to end up lifting it, and the only real measures we ars able to put in place to stop the (imo) inevitable second wave, is yet another form of lockdown (be it targeted or whatever). 

It's been mismanagement on a national scale, and a fucking disgrace tbh. 

[superbigal]

Some healthcare system in the Soviet Union.
Charging along with another 10,000+ cases yesterday and only 98 deaths.
Clearly they commies have all the gear stockpiled from the cold war and the odd nuclear plant going tits up.

[dirty dingus]

3 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Some healthcare system in the Soviet Union.
Charging along with another 10,000+ cases yesterday and only 98 deaths.
Clearly they commies have all the gear stockpiled from the cold war and the odd nuclear plant going tits up.

Most of those deaths will be associated with health care professionals getting chuck from windows.

https://time.com/5832752/russia-coronavirus-doctors-deaths/

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by dirty dingus

[Detournement]

9 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Some healthcare system in the Soviet Union.
Charging along with another 10,000+ cases yesterday and only 98 deaths.
Clearly they commies have all the gear stockpiled from the cold war and the odd nuclear plant going tits up.

Russia has already carried out over 4 million tests. Given that the virus got their later and it's mainly just the greater Moscow area affected at the moment that's a lot of tests.

[dirty dingus]

 

Anyone know if there is a bus running to this from Glasgow? Ah fancy reaching out and having some human contact with my hands wrapped around their necks.

[madwullie]

7 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

 

Anyone know if there is a bus running to this from Glasgow? Ah fancy reaching out and having some human contact with my hands wrapped around their necks.

Carbon copy of what's going on in America. Wouldn't surprise me if it's being organised by the same agitating arseholes. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, Dee Man said:

I wonder if any of the fuckwits who were panic buying and stockpiling toilet roll and the like are looking back and wondering WTF they were thinking of. 

I doubt anyone who indulges in panic buying does reflection.

[Bairnardo]

BBC covering the real topics for once

[bendan]

53 minutes ago, renton said:

If you use the NRS numbers to split out hospital deaths from the general populace vs those from care homes, you find the latter is basically flat over three weeks whereas the former is falling now. Assuming a logarithmic  trend you are looking at another month before hospital deaths is down in low, double digits. So three more weeks to get the r value down to an acceptable level. 

But if we use deaths to assess the R0, we're basically wasting a month (and taking a massive economic hit) because of the time lag between infection and death. That's why widespread  testing is important. We need to respond to things as they are happening. If we only know what's happened when someone dies, that's a huge failure.

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, madwullie said:

Criticising Neil ferguson's figures is all well and good, but firstly, noone has any idea what would have happened had we not locked down... Its hard to argue that it hasn't been effective in bringing the R0 down and mah have caused us to avoid the scenes in Italy. 

lol wut

That'll be why we've got a higher death toll than Italy and still supposedly can't restart economic and social activities because the R0 figures isn't low enough after nearly seven full weeks of lockdown.

As the range of possible outcomes at the start of March went, this is one of the worst all round.

2 hours ago, Paco said:

And I do find it extraordinary that people use the success of a measure like the lockdown to say it’s all an overreaction. The models that grabbed the headlines about half a million deaths were in the event of doing nothing, e.g. pursuing herd immunity. That we’re nowhere near those numbers is literally the result of the lockdown, not because this virus somehow isn’t really a problem. It’s as simple as adding two and two.

 

Well no, because the inaccurate or plain bullshit figures peddled by Ferguson clearly frame how the government response is judged, including in your argument right there. If a different range of deaths between, say, 200k in a no lockdown scenario to the 40k that the current measures are easily sailing towards is used instead then the cost-benefit analysis is entirely different and the economic costs and secondary health impacts of the lockdown policy become much more significant.

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, Dee Man said:

I wonder if any of the fuckwits who were panic buying and stockpiling toilet roll and the like are looking back and wondering WTF they were thinking of. 

Good point, should be loads of it going cheap on Ebay. Might buy a load to flog when the second peak hits.

[dundeefc1783]

Honestly the shite these rags spout is becoming fucking ridiculous. Sturgeon clearly covered this yesterday and said nothing if the sort.

[vikingTON]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/06/slovakia-coronavirus-pandemic-public-trust-media/ 

 

[Dee Man]

18 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Good point, should be loads of it going cheap on Ebay. Might buy a load to flog when the second peak hits.

Surely you've still got a load left to sell from the container load you imported from China?

[Dee Man]

Just got the side of my house painted. Looks not too bad. 

 

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Dee Man said:

Surely you've still got a load left to sell from the container load you imported from China?

Haven't arrived yet, or rather only 100 instead of 500 rolls did. They're @Bairnardo sized too. Have till the end of the month before I can put a claim in, according to the tracker they're still at sea.