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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yes.

The question most are asking now, though, is at what point is it ok to go about our lives again?

Eradicating the virus completely is unlikely, and putting everything on hold till a vaccine maybe appears is unfeasible.

The answer seems to be we set shortish term targets at which we review the data and make decisions at that point, be it to relax if its working, strengthen if it isn't, and panic like f**k if it's severely worsening. 

During this time we're led tonbelieve that the NHS will be increasing capacity meaning to reach saturation point there would need to be more cases than the figure that was last weeks saturation point. Given we're chucking up temporary hospitals, I've no reason not to believe that that's what we're doing 

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I’ll give you a clue.
it comes from the UK flu epidemics of 99/00 and 14/15
Which were both less than 50,000 by the way. The 1999/2000 Swine Flu pandemic caused around 20,000 deaths (easily searched, links to the Independent, the ONS and the BBC all cite the 20,000 figure; the Guardian has the highest figure at 22,000) and the 2014/15 figure often cited at being around 44,000 is the total excess winter mortality figure as defined by the ONS as the number of deaths in November to February compared to the prior three months and includes all deaths (there was a particular cold snap that winter which exacerbated things); there were also several strains of flu going round at that time including H5N1 and H1N1 as well as a Middle Eastern Coronavirus which wasn't seen as a big problem as it was mild. On top of all that there was a highly publicised problem with the flu vaccine that winter, with it only being effective in around 3% of patients given the injection rather than the usual 45-60%. Its all available again from multiple sources including the WHO, the BBC, the Telegraph, the Independent and the ONS.
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8 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:
1 hour ago, Jeremiah Cole said:
I’ll give you a clue.
it comes from the UK flu epidemics of 99/00 and 14/15

Which were both less than 50,000 by the way. The 1999/2000 Swine Flu pandemic caused around 20,000 deaths (easily searched, links to the Independent, the ONS and the BBC all cite the 20,000 figure; the Guardian has the highest figure at 22,000) and the 2014/15 figure often cited at being around 44,000 is the total excess winter mortality figure as defined by the ONS as the number of deaths in November to February compared to the prior three months and includes all deaths (there was a particular cold snap that winter which exacerbated things); there were also several strains of flu going round at that time including H5N1 and H1N1 as well as a Middle Eastern Coronavirus which wasn't seen as a big problem as it was mild. On top of all that there was a highly publicised problem with the flu vaccine that winter, with it only being effective in around 3% of patients given the injection rather than the usual 45-60%. Its all available again from multiple sources including the WHO, the BBC, the Telegraph, the Independent and the ONS.

I don't think this is how excess winter mortality is calculated. It's the difference between the number of deaths occurring in the winter period December-March and the average of the preceding and succeeding four-month periods.

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