tree house tam Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: Gutted. In other news my hands have responded to 4 days without getting oil on them by coming out in a rash. That's because it acted like a barrier to the squalid letham conditions you live in you mink. I'll be up to inspect the garden after this is over.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremiah Cole Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, s_dog said: They estimated early on that the mortality rate would be around 1%. Right in the middle of it you can't really put an accurate figure on it because no one knows for certain how many people are infected, and also because of the lag between when people die after they are first hospitalised. You can though use Germany and South Korea as guides because they are both extensively testing, so have more accurate figures for how many people are infected. According to the youtube king Dr John Campbell, Germany is testing 500,000 per week and their figures show 62k infected with 500 deaths, so around 0.8%. While South Korea who are testing, tracking and tracing extensively, they have 9.5k and 150 deaths, which is around 1.6%. Latest study from Wuhan puts the death rate between 0.04% and 0.12% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: Gutted. In other news my hands have responded to 4 days without getting oil on them by coming out in a rash. Obviously caught the clap the other night. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8MileBU Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 34 minutes ago, virginton said: I’m sure that the producers are devastated to hear that it hasn’t earned the high culture seal of approval from a shite-flinging fantasist. The COVID-19 of P&B calling anyone else a fantasist Pipe down you raging tramp. The closest you’ve come to culture was purchasing a crepe from a van with some kid’s lost change found by the waltzer at Vic Harbour. Edited March 31, 2020 by 8MileBU 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, tree house tam said: That's because it acted like a barrier to the squalid letham conditions you live in you mink. I'll be up to inspect the garden after this is over.... Is that essential travel Tam? I'm blaming the handwash, tbh, I'll be washing my hands for 20 seconds in swarfega from now on, hopefully that's medically fine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Italy in particular is bad possibly because parts of the north where its been worse are densely populated with low air qualityCan we please put this myth to bed.The worst affected region per capita is Val d'Aosta, which is also the least densely populated region in Italy. Per capita Trentino-Alto Adige is worse affected than neighbouring Veneto despite having 30% of its population density. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tree house tam Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, RandomGuy. said: Is that essential travel Tam? I'm blaming the handwash, tbh, I'll be washing my hands for 20 seconds in swarfega from now on, hopefully that's medically fine. Note the "after this is over" line. Someone is going to tesco for me later, I might ask them to go 100m up the hill if they're brave enough. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8MileBU Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 With all due respect, Catherine Calderwood is really starting to grate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonksy+HisChristianParade Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 45 minutes ago, Jeremiah Cole said: One of my mates lives next to 2 nurses in Paisley who work in intensive care They were both off at the weekend They’ve only got 1 person in intensive care in Paisley with coronavirus. He’s 86, just had a hip replacement and was in intensive care anyway It’s because she’s in surgery just now and they are trying to send as many patients home as possible. In fairness the medical wards are pretty full of corona patients apparently. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Jeremiah Cole said: A new epidemiological study(preprint) concludes that the fatality of Covid19 even in the Chinese city of Wuhan was only 0.04% to 0.12% and thus rather lower than that of seasonal flu, which has a mortality rate of about 0.1%. As a reason for the overestimated fatality of Covid19, the researchers suspect that initially only a small number of cases were recorded in Wuhan, as the disease was probably asymptomatic or mild in many people. As usual your copying and pasting totally misses the point. It's not about the death toll, it's about the transmission rate and the capacity of the NHS to cope with a rapid influx of patients. Here's a bit you missed from the paper you failed to link, further down. Quote Our posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China 236 in 2019–2020 is calculated to be as high as 5.20 (95%CrI: 5.04–5.47). The 237 time–dependent scaling factor quantifying the extent of enhanced public health 238 intervention on R is 0.99 (95%CrI: 0.94–1.00), declining R to 5.12 (95%CrI: 4.98–5.26) 239 from January 23rd to February 1st and 0.11 (95%CrI: 0.10–0.13), declining R to 0.58 240 (95%CrI: 0.51–0.64) for February 2nd to February 11th, 2020. These R estimates 241 capturing the underlying transmission dynamics modify the impact of COVID-19, with 242 the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 1905526 243 (95%CrI: 1350283– 2655936) in Wuhan City, raising the proportion of infected 244 individuals to 19.1% (95%CrI: 13.5–26.6%) with a catchment population in Wuhan 245 City of 10 million people. Our estimates of mean reproduction number reached values 246 as high as 5.20, an estimate that is slightly higher than previous mean estimates in the 247 range 2.2-3.8 derived by fitting epidemic models to the initial growth phase of the 248 observed case incidence [21-23]. By comparison, the R estimate for the Diamond 249 Princess cruise ship in Japan reached values as high as ~11 [24]. Further, these estimates 250 are higher than recent mean R estimates derived from the growth rates of the COVID-19 251 outbreaks in Singapore (R~1.1) [25] and Korea (R~1.5) [26]. 252 253 The sustained high R values in Wuhan City even after the lockdown and mobility 254 restrictions suggests that transmission is occurring inside the household or amplified in 255 healthcare settings [18], which is a landmark of past SARS and MERS outbreaks 256 [27-28]. Considering the potent transmissibility of COVID-19 in confined settings, as 257 illustrated by COVID-19 outbreaks aboard cruise ships, including the Diamond Princess 258 cruise ship, where the total number of secondary or tertiary infections reached 705 among more than 3,700 passengers as of February 28th 259 , 2020 and also by the COVID-19 260 outbreak tied to the Shincheonji religious sect in South Korea where church members 261 appear to have infected from seven to 10 people. [29-31], it is crucial to prevent 262 transmission in confined settings including hospital-based transmission by 263 strengthening infection control measures as well as transmission stemming from large 264 social gatherings. 265 Our most recent estimates of the crude CFR and time–delay adjusted CFR are 266 at 4.2% (95% CrI: 3.9–4.9%) and 12.23% (95% CrI: 11.4–13.0%), respectively. In 267 contrast, our most recent crude IFR and time–delay adjusted IFR is estimated to be 268 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), which is several 269 orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR at 4.19%. These findings indicate that 270 the death risk in Wuhan is estimated to be much higher than those in other areas, which 271 is likely explained by hospital-based transmission [32]. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v2.full.pdf+html Edited March 31, 2020 by welshbairn 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremiah Cole Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, welshbairn said: As usual your copying and pasting totally misses the point. It's not about the death toll, it's about the transmission rate and the capacity of the NHS to cope with a rapid influx of patients. Here's a bit you missed from the paper you failed to link, further down. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v2.full.pdf+html Actually, I didn’t miss it at all 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremiah Cole Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 31 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said: This should be on his gravestone. Unmarked burial or trebuchet into the sea for his corpse. Thank you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremiah Cole Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, 8MileBU said: The COVID-19 of P&B calling anyone else a fantasist Pipe down you raging tramp. The closest you’ve come to culture was purchasing a crepe from a van with some kid’s lost change found by the waltzer at Vic Harbour. That’s hilarious are you in stand up? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 21 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: Is that essential travel Tam? I'm blaming the handwash, tbh, I'll be washing my hands for 20 seconds in swarfega from now on, hopefully that's medically fine. Don't forget the nails... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremiah Cole Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Governments everywhere say they are responding to the science. The policies in the UK are not the government’s fault. They are trying to act responsibly based on the scientific advice given. But governments must remember that rushed science is almost always bad science. We have decided on policies of extraordinary magnitude without concrete evidence of excess harm already occurring, and without proper scrutiny of the science used to justify them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stellaboz Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 So you'd have the governments do nothing in the meantime? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shandon Par Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugster Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 36 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said: This should be on his gravestone. And the sooner the better 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, jagfox99 said: Don't forget the nails... Nah they're left black tbh. In all seriousness, if you have a skin condition then make sure you're moisturising throughout the day aswell as cleaning your hands. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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