carpetmonster Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djchapsticks Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Up 16% in one day, 64% in three days. Exponential growth. Don’t need to be a maths wizard to see where we will be in a fortnight if growth doesn’t slow. ETA 3 million plus infected, 57,000 plus dead. In Scotland. In a fortnight. Highly, highly unlikely in a fortnight. I'm actually interested in how you even reached those numbers. I get that the 16% daily increase is alarming and the infected figures aren't accurate but if a 16% daily increase is dragged out over 2 weeks, it comes to less than 3,000 confirmed cases. So I'm interested in your working of where you are pulling these numbers from. Edited March 22, 2020 by djchapsticks 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 At least people in the US Pleased to report round my way was a ghost town yesterday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highlandcowden Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 1 minute ago, carpetmonster said: Pleased to report round my way was a ghost town yesterday. that's because all the clubs have been closed down please be upstanding for the irish national anthem 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, djchapsticks said: Highly, highly unlikely in a fortnight. At the growth rate explained in the article these are the figures. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Romeo Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 I always thought 9/11 would be the defining moment of my generation.Turn out not to be the case. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Romeo said: I always thought 9/11 would be the defining moment of my generation. Turn out not to be the case. What happened on the 9th of November? 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djchapsticks Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Just now, Granny Danger said: At the growth rate explained in the article these are the figures. Show your working, because it isn't in my calculations. 373 cases x 16% increase a day is 2,979 cases in a fortnight. 373 cases x 64% increase every 3 days is 4,425 confirmed cases in 15 days from now. I accept this is a massive underestimation as a LOT more people have it than are confirmed but I simply can't work out a situation where you get to 3 million cases and 57,000 cases in the next two weeks. Had you said it's projected over the next 2 months if trends stay as is, I'd have been more inclined to agree. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 How long is it anticipated to take for the trends to reflect any new measure put in place? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derry Alli Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, djchapsticks said: Show your working, because it isn't in my calculations. It's went from 16% to 64% in three days. He's doubled it up. Tomorrow would be 128%, then 256% etc. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djchapsticks Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Bairnardo said: How long is it anticipated to take for the trends to reflect any new measure put in place? Italy expected it in a week, then 2 weeks. They are in 12th day since measures and doesn't seem to be slowing up. I'd be interested in seeing a regional breakdown of Italy. The Lombardy region is taking massive hits but there's not a lot being said if the spread is being slowed or stemmed in regions of the country that weren't at the epicentre. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, djchapsticks said: Show your working, because it isn't in my calculations. 373 cases x 16% increase a day is 2,979 cases in a fortnight. 373 cases x 64% increase every 3 days is 4,425 confirmed cases in 15 days from now. I accept this is a massive underestimation as a LOT more people have it than are confirmed but I simply can't work out a situation where you get to 3 million cases and 57,000 cases in the next two weeks. Had you said it's projected over the next 2 months if trends stay as is, I'd have been more inclined to agree. I’m going by the growth rate. 16% day one, 64% day three, 32% day two is reasonable assumption. So the growth rate is now doubling every day. Assuming day one is ‘1’ then by day fourteen that number is ‘8192’. 8192 x 373 (existing infections) is 3,055,616 infected. Do the same for deaths. ETA if social distancing/isolation cuts down transfer rates by 50% then the 3 million figure drops to under 24,000. Edited March 22, 2020 by Granny Danger 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 1 minute ago, djchapsticks said: Italy expected it in a week, then 2 weeks. They are in 12th day since measures and doesn't seem to be slowing up. I'd be interested in seeing a regional breakdown of Italy. The Lombardy region is taking massive hits but there's not a lot being said if the spread is being slowed or stemmed in regions of the country that weren't at the epicentre. Ok. Do we have an epicentre? Also, how long with measures making no difference before the tories go tory again and start discussing taking the hit? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 I see our death toll after 2 weeks matches Italy's exactly - 233. I believe they have twice the ICU bed capacity that we do. We have the time to prepare that they didn't though, and hopefully that'll make a difference. They're ramping it all up good and proper in hospitals right now. It's not going to perfect, and whistle blowers and the media do need to keep pressing them - but those in charge are trying to do everything they can to get ready for this. Surely that isn't being questioned. And then there's the concentration in lombardi. Hopefully we're a bit more spread out in our clusters (yes I'm talking Britain because I'm a yes supporter who isn't a selfish arsehole). Scotland is even further spread out, so again that should help us up here. Andrew Marr slagging off the blitz spirit. He didn't, though. Yes he pointed out that looting and thievery went up but he also emphasised that people came together. That is a historical certainty - and denying that existed is as stupid as those that think everything was rosey and easy. No one interviewed who went through that would ever want to go through it again, and yet some right wing fannies cling to it like a golden age for Britain that should be recreated all the time. Those people are numpties, but a common community spirit clearly existed - and was vital. Oh dear! Dele has taken agin' me. [emoji14] Shown himself up for the twat that he is. You're the one acting like a twat, mate. Tone it doon a bit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djchapsticks Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Granny Danger said: I’m going by the growth rate. 16% day one, 64% day three, 32% day two is reasonable assumption. So the growth rate is now doubling every day. Assuming day one is ‘1’ then by day fourteen that number is ‘8192’. 8192 x 373 (existing infections) is 3,055,616 infected. Do the same for deaths. Two completely different things. The growth hasn't gone up 16% in a a day, up 32% in a day, up 64% in a day over the last 3 days. That would suggest the growth will go up 128% today. I'd be very surprised if this was the case. The growth has gone up 16% from yesterday and yesterdays figure is up 64% from 3 days prior. These are nowhere near the same thing. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DigOutYourSoul Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Cummings needs to be tried and jailed for mass manslaughter, I struggle to remember a bigger c**t. That’s impressive given some of the people around just now. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dorlomin Posted March 22, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 22, 2020 26 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Up 16% in one day, 64% in three days. Exponential growth. Don’t need to be a maths wizard to see where we will be in a fortnight if growth doesn’t slow. ETA 3 million plus infected, 57,000 plus dead. In Scotland. In a fortnight. Scotland has 373 cases. I will use this as a teaching moment for those who would be interested in how to do this. There are a couple of ways but you have percentage growth is the starting value times the % +1 so 16% is 0.16+1 give 1.16. Multiply that with the starting value 373*1.16, so 432 cases tomorrow (only a very rough estimate) To get 14 days you raise the growth factor to the power of the days you are calculating (1.16*1.16*1.16 = 1.16^3) So 373*(1.16)^14 or 7.97=3979 cases in Scotland in two weeks. Many caveats here including these are tested cases and some think the non tested cases are much higher, other things can affect the growth factor such as people observing good social distancing and hygiene etc etc. But we will not be at 3 million in Scotland in 14 days. That said I have been telling people that the hard lock down will begin somewhere around 8-10 000 cases UK wide as that is where ICU facilities will likely become heavily stressed. Though there has been some significant effort to expand that capacity. 24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 Some good statistics teaching going on here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Marshmallo Posted March 22, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 22, 2020 Old Man Danger's abacus malfunctioning wildly. 23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted March 22, 2020 Share Posted March 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: Ok. Do we have an epicentre? Also, how long with measures making no difference before the tories go tory again and start discussing taking the hit? 110 in Greater Glasgow and Clyde. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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